Who is the best team in the SEC?
You can make a credible case for a handful of teams after Week 11. No. No. 16 Ole Miss defeated No. 3 Georgia 28-10 in Oxford, hours before No. 11 Alabama went on the road and easily dispatched No. 15 LSU 42-13.
You’ll remember that Georgia defeated Texas on the road earlier this season. Alabama defeated Georgia. And Ole Miss now has a win over Georgia, but has losses to Kentucky and LSU.
The top ranks of the SEC are in shambles. The race for the conference title could be very tough. And that will also have consequences for the College Football Playoff. Four SEC teams were in the expected playoff bracket during Tuesday’s opening rankings reveal.
After this weekend, there is a plausible scenario in which Texas or Texas A&M finishes the regular season at 7-1 in the conference and there are up to seven teams tied for second place at 6-2.
As you can imagine, there is no real way to resolve a tie between six or seven sides. Especially in a conference that has no divisions and is too big for any team to play each other. The 16-team SEC could show us this season what tiebreaker life will be like in the college football era of mega-conferences.
In case you were wondering, the SEC’s tiebreaker rules go six levels deep. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record and the second is the record of the teams tied against common opponents. That second tiebreaker will likely be enough to break a tie. But if not, record against the conference’s best common opponent(s) is the third tiebreaker and the best winning percentage against conference opponents is the fourth.
That fourth tiebreaker could ultimately be the one that matters.
So how could this scenario work? Let us break it down for you.
LSU (6-3 overall, 3-2 SEC)
The Tigers need to win all three of these games and will be favored in all of them. It is very likely that they can win. Florida was dominated by Texas on Saturday and fell to 4-5 on the season. Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina on Saturday and Oklahoma lost a wild game to Missouri.
Missouri (7-2, 3-2)
The Tigers somehow pulled off a 30-23 win over Oklahoma in a wild fourth quarter on Saturday. Each team was given the green light for a touchdown in the final two minutes of the game and Missouri DL Zion Young’s fumble recovery with 22 seconds left provided the winning margin.
Mizzou will be an underdog in South Carolina and will likely have to start QB Brady Cook back on the field to have a chance in that game. The other two are very winnable. Like LSU, Mizzou needs three wins in the next three weeks.
Alabama (7-2, 4-2)
The Crimson Tide will be significant favorites in both games. Oklahoma and Auburn have a combined SEC record of 2-10. We can slightly put Alabama at 6-2 in the conference with two wins.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
The Rebels earned their biggest win of the Lane Kiffin era against the Bulldogs on Saturday. And they, too, will be heavy favorites in the final two weeks of the season after a bye in Week 12. It will be a surprise if Ole Miss isn’t 6-2 in the conference.
Georgia (7-2, 5-2)
The Bulldogs are one of only two teams in the SEC with only one conference game remaining. A win over Tennessee in Week 12 makes Georgia the first team to go 6-2 and they will see the conference race unfold over the final two weeks of the season.
Texas (8-1, 4-1)
The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in the first two games before a winner-take-all matchup against Texas A&M could emerge in the final week of the season. If both Texas and Texas A&M enter the final week of the season at 6-1 in conference play, the winner will be assured a spot in the SEC title game.
Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)
The Aggies and Longhorns will play that game for the first time since Texas A&M joined the Big 12 in 2011. Texas A&M was off Saturday for a game against New Mexico State in Week 12 and is favored on the road against Auburn.
Tennessee (8-1, 5-1)
Tennessee’s scenario is also simple. If the Vols win both games, they will likely play the winner of Texas and Texas A&M in the SEC title game. If they lose one, the chaos scenario we outlined above could come into full effect. And unless you’re a Tennessee fan, you don’t want chaos?
Complicating Tennessee’s path to the SEC title could be the health of QB Nico Iamaleava. He left Saturday’s win over Mississippi State at halftime due to what the school said was an upper-body injury, although coach Josh Heupel said after the game that Iamaleava’s absence was precautionary.
Here are this week’s other winners and losers.
Winners
UCLA: The Bruins are on a three-game win streak after beating Iowa 20-17. UCLA dropped five straight games after opening its season with a win in Hawaii and now has a decent chance of becoming bowl eligible with three games remaining. Friday night’s win was ugly; each team turned the ball over three times and UCLA was penalized nine times to Iowa’s two. But the Bruins rushed for 211 yards and Ethan Garbers threw two touchdowns.
Cal: The Bears earned their first-ever ACC victory with a 46-36 win over Wake Forest on Friday night. Fernando Mendoza threw for 385 yards and two scores, while also rushing 10 times for 51 yards and a touchdown. The Golden Bears are 5-4 after a four-game midseason losing streak and should become bowl eligible with a home game against Stanford remaining on the schedule.
State of Jacksonville: The Gamecocks avoided disaster on Saturday. Down by six to Louisiana Tech late in the fourth quarter, Jacksonville State hit a 49-yard Hail Mary as time expired when Tyler Huff found Cam Vaughn in the end zone. JSU was set up for a walk-off win, right? No. The PAT missed and the game went into overtime. Tre Stewart’s 11-yard TD run in OT ended up being the winning score as Louisiana Tech failed to score on its possession.
Georgia technology: The Yellow Jackets are heading to back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade after beating Miami 28-23. The win moved Georgia Tech to 6-4 as the Yellow Jackets used their run game to great effect against the Hurricanes. The defense also came up big, as Miami failed to convert its first three fourth-down attempts and Cam Ward was sacked with less than two minutes left.
Losers
State of Iowa: The No. 17 Cyclones have gone from undefeated atop the Big 12 to needing help to make the Big 12 title game in the span of two weeks. A week after the home loss to Texas Tech, Iowa State lost 45-36 in Kansas on Saturday. Iowa State’s defense gave up 532 yards to the Jayhawks as Jalon Daniels looked like the player he was in 2022. ISU still has games remaining against Cincinnati, Utah and Kansas State. That game against the Wildcats could mean a lot, but Colorado needs to lose for it to matter.
Pitt: The No. No. 18 Panthers likely lost a shot at the ACC title with a 24-19 home loss to Virginia on Saturday night. The Cavaliers scored 14 straight points in the third quarter to take the lead and hold it for the rest of the game. Pitt QB Eli Holstein had to leave the game in the third quarter due to an injury and his replacement Nate Yarnell threw two interceptions in the second half as he was just 4 of 12 for 44 yards.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats are also on a two-game losing streak after a 31-24 home loss to West Virginia. QB Brendan Sorsby threw an interception and fumbled twice as the Bearcats allowed 17 points in the second quarter. After a terrible first season in the Big 12, Cincinnati is firmly in the middle of the conference and needs just one win to make a bowl game. But the final three games of the season are against Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU.
State of Oregon: Life in the temporary Pac-12 is much better for Washington State than it is for Oregon State. The Beavers fell to 4-5 overall after a 24-13 home loss to San Jose State on Saturday. SJSU QB Walker Eget threw for 395 yards on just 18 of 35 passing, while Nick Nash had six catches for 161 yards and Justin Lockhart five grabs for 128 yards. It’s fair to say that Oregon State really needed to beat the Spartans to have a realistic shot at a bowl game. The Beavers still have Air Force, Washington State and Boise State on their schedule. They will be the underdogs in the final two matchups.
