More than 20 teams can claim they have a path to the College Football Playoff with two weeks left in the regular season.
The first season with the twelve-team play-offs has not lacked drama. Just look at the SEC after No. 12 Georgia took down No. 7 Tennessee. Texas is the only team in the conference with fewer than two losses and we are guaranteed a team with two conference losses in the SEC title game.
The SEC has the most teams with realistic playoff chances, but there are at least three teams in each power conference that could imagine getting a first-round bye with a conference title.
By our count, there are 21 teams that could qualify for the 12-team bracket heading into the second half of November. Here’s how:
ACC
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Miami (9-1)
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SMU (9-1)
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Clemson (8-2)
Can the ACC get two teams to the playoffs? SMU was No. 14 in the second set of rankings and could potentially top Tennessee after the Vols’ loss to Georgia. However, it certainly feels like the ACC title game will be for the ACC’s only playoff bid. The Mustangs hold a one-game lead in the conference race over the Hurricanes and Tigers, while No. 9 Miami has the tiebreaker over No. 20 Clemson.
Big 12
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BYU (9-1)
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Colorado (8-2)
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Arizona State (8-2)
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Iowa State (8-2)
Like the ACC, the Big 12 could be a one-bid playoff league, especially now that BYU is no longer undefeated. The No. 6 Cougars lost 17-13 at home to Kansas on Saturday night after a late fourth-down conversion attempt fell short.
BYU and Colorado now sit atop the conference at 6-1, while ASU and Iowa State sit at 5-2. BYU visits Arizona State in Week 13 while Colorado plays at Kansas. While unlikely, there is a scenario in which all four teams could end conference play at 7-2, with only the game between the Sun Devils and Cougars being played between the tied teams.
Big Ten
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Oregon (11-0)
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Indiana (10-0)
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Ohio State (9-1)
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Penn State (9-1)
No. No. 1 Oregon escaped Madison with a 16-13 win over Wisconsin, No. 5 Indiana was out, No. 2 Ohio State had an easy win at Northwestern and No. 4 Penn State blew out Purdue. We expect all four of these teams to be in the top five again on Tuesday night and it seems very likely that all four will make the playoffs barring a few unexpected losses.
If Ohio State beats Indiana at home in Week 13 and the Hoosiers finish 11-1, it’s hard to see how the committee will keep the Hoosiers out given where they are now. The same goes for an 11-1 Penn State team that also doesn’t make the Big Ten title game.
Independents
The No. 8 Fighting Irish have an easy path to the playoff after an easy win over Virginia on Saturday. They’re in if they keep winning. Notre Dame has an undefeated Army at Yankee Stadium in Week 13 and then closes the season at a USC team that could need a win to become bowl eligible if it loses to UCLA next week.
SEC
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Texel (9-1)
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Texas A&M (8-2)
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Alabama (8-2)
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Ole Miss (8-2)
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Georgia (8-2)
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Tennessee (8-2)
Is the SEC playing for four spots in the playoffs, or can the depth of the conference push a one-loss team from the Big Ten – or even Notre Dame – out of the field? There is a very real scenario in which all six of these teams finish the regular season at 10-2 and it is virtually impossible to see the committee placing six SEC teams in the bracket.
The simplest scenario for the committee is a win at No. 3 Texas over No. 15 Texas A&M in the final week of the season, which could set up a potential matchup with a 10-2 Alabama in the SEC title game. The No. 10 Crimson Tide appears to have the edge when going through SEC tiebreakers. But if the Aggies beat the Longhorns and four 10-2 teams miss the SEC title game, the committee could find itself in knots trying to figure out how to rank the outsiders and the 10-3 loser of the conference title game.
Group of Five
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Army (9-0)
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Boise State (9-1)
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Tulaan (9-2)
The fifth conference champion in the 12-team playoff field will be one of these three teams. We are almost 100% sure. No. 13 Boise State improved to 9-1 after pulling away from San Jose State in the second half. The Broncos are the favorites in the Mountain West and have been part of the first two projected playoff fields. If Boise State falters, the winner of the AAC title game will be ready to pounce. That’s also our first set title game matchup. No. No. 24 Army and No. 25 Tulane are already locked in the Dec. 6 game with two weeks left in the regular season.
Here are this week’s other winners and losers.
Winners
Florida: The Gators haven’t stopped. After losing three of its last four games, Florida responded with a 27-16 victory over No. 22 LSU on Saturday. Florida has played the toughest schedule in the country; it has already played six teams that were in the College Football Playoff rankings last week and has a seventh next week at No. 11 Ole Miss. Freshman QB DJ Lagway returned to the lineup and played well, even though it was clear he has not fully recovered from the hamstring injury he suffered against Georgia. With Florida now 5-5, all it takes is a win over 1-9 Florida State in the final game of the regular season to advance to a bowl game.
Eastern Carolina: The Pirates are now bowl eligible after a 38-31 win over Tulsa Thursday night. ECU has won three straight games following the firing of Mike Houston and has a path to finish 8-4 with games remaining at North Texas and at home against Navy. RB Rahjai Harris rushed 18 times for 114 yards and two scores in the win.
Arizona: The Wildcats ended a five-game losing streak with a 27-3 win at home against Houston on Friday night. Tetairoa McMillan has caught a TD pass in three straight games for the Wildcats after the star wide receiver went six games without a score following a four-touchdown performance in the first game of the season. Arizona is now 4-6 and needs wins over TCU and Arizona State to reach a bowl game.
State of Colorado: The Rams are in prime position to make the Mountain West title game after a 24-10 home win in their rivalry game against Wyoming on Friday night. CSU is 5-0 in the MWC with games remaining against Fresno State and Utah State. Wins in both will put CSU in the conference title game, although the Rams will not play in the playoffs. Losses to Texas, Colorado and Oregon State mean the AAC champion would get into the playoffs ahead of CSU.
Losers
Louisville: What a bad loss for the Cardinals. Stanford kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired for a 38-35 victory over Louisville on Saturday. The Cardinal’s winning drive — yes, it was a single vs. multiple matchup — was aided by two Louisville penalties. The first was a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Tayon Holloway, who put Stanford in position for a 57-yard field goal. The second came when Quincy Riley jumped offside on the field goal attempt to shorten Emmet Kenney’s kick by five yards.
State of Kansas: The chances of the No. 16 Wildcats to reach the Big 12 title game are effectively zero after a 24-14 home loss to Arizona State. The Sun Devils led 21-0 in the first half when Kansas State turned the ball over three times and failed on two field goal attempts. ASU QB Sam Leavitt was 21 of 34 for 275 yards and three scores as the Sun Devils are now tied for third in the conference with Iowa State. K-State, meanwhile, has three conference losses. The Wildcats must win and make both Arizona State and Colorado lose their remaining two games to have a shot at the conference title.
Ball State coach Mike Neu: The Cardinals fell to 3-7 with a 51-48 overtime loss at Buffalo on Tuesday night. Ball State gave up two TDs to the Bulls in the final six minutes and then the game-winning TD in overtime after kicking a field goal to start OT. Fast forward to Saturday when Ball State announced Neu had been fired. He coached the Cardinals for nearly nine seasons and had a career record of 40-63. The team went to two bowl games during his tenure, including a 7-1 season in 2020 that resulted in a final ranking of No. 23 in the AP Top 25.
Nebraska: The Huskers are desperate to get to a bowl game. Nebraska has two more chances for a sixth win after a 28-20 loss at USC. Nebraska hasn’t been to a bowl game since the 2016 season and hasn’t been able to get the deal done if it’s close. Saturday’s loss was its ninth straight loss dating back to 2019, when Nebraska had a chance for a sixth win in a season. The Huskers lost their season finale in 2019 and finished 5-7, lost four straight to end the 2023 season and also finished 5-7 and have now lost four straight this season after falling to 5-1 gone with a 14-7 win over Rutgers. Games against Wisconsin and Iowa to close out 2024 are no gimmicks either.
