President Joe Biden participates in the CNN presidential debate on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.
With Democrats still reeling from President Joe Biden’s confusing debate last week, political strategists are trying to determine what impact the new narrative in the presidential election could have on competitive elections at lower levels.
In Maryland, Republicans believe Biden’s shaky performance will motivate voters in the 6th Congressional District — by far the state’s most competitive district — and potentially in the high-profile open Senate race.
“What happened Thursday night is a win for Republicans, and I would say for all sides of the ballot,” said Jim Burton, a GOP strategist and pollster and former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party. “If Democrats are disappointed — and they are — then their voter-modeling energy reflects the president’s energy.”
Democrats are already obsessed with Biden’s diminished standing in his rematch with the former president Donald TrumpA Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday found that 41% of Democrats believe Biden should be replaced as their presidential nominee. The poll did not, however, include a head-to-head confrontation between Biden and Trump.
The national media has been awash in stories in recent days about how Democrats are trying to distance themselves from Biden in tight Senate races and swing congressional districts — and how Republican operatives are trying to tie their Democratic opponents to the president. With control of the Senate and House of Representatives on the line in November, Democrats are feverishly polling key races to see if their candidates are seeing a dip in support as a result of Biden’s newly exposed political vulnerability.
The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday began airing videos of incumbent Democratic congressmen in ineligible districts refusing to answer questions about Biden’s mental acuity.
“Far-flung Democrats in the House watched Joe Biden destroy their dream of a House majority during the debate,” the NRCC wrote on the social media platform X. “They still think he is fit to serve.”
Maryland, a state that is reliably blue in the White House race, has two competitive congressional races on its schedule this November: the Senate race between former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and the Prince George’s County Executive Angela Ookbrooks (D), and the race for the 6th District with former Del. Neil Parrot (R) and former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D).
Democratic leaders believe Alsobrooks and Delaney are strong candidates, but some acknowledge that a lack of enthusiasm for the top job could have consequences for elections in Maryland and beyond.
“One of my biggest concerns is people who decide not to vote and as a result end up lower on the list. [Democratic candidates] “This is a concern to me, as it relates to taking back the House and keeping the Senate,” said Terry Lierman, a former Democratic Party chairman.
The Senate race in Maryland, with a unique and popular Republican in Hogan, has a dynamic all its own—which is not to say it can’t be affected by the outcome of the presidential election. But the battle in the 6th District, in a district that would have given Biden a 9.8-point victory in 2020 under current boundaries, could be particularly susceptible to national trends.
In the weeks leading up to the 2022 election, Parrott, then and now the GOP nominee, was thought to be quickly gaining on the incumbent Democratic congressman, U.S. Rep. David Trone, as national polls showed Republicans on the rise. He ultimately lost by more than 9 points, as Republican performance in most places across the country fell well short of expectations.
The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia Center for Politics have listed the 6th District as “likely Democratic,” meaning they believe Delaney is likely to retain Trone’s seat for the Democrats. Just 10 days ago, another national political tip sheet, Inside Elections, moved Maryland 6 from the “likely Democratic” column to the “safely Democratic” column.
“If Parrott wins, it will be because the ground has fallen out for the Democrats,” Inside Elections wrote.
Parrott said in an interview Monday that he has seen the ground shift in the district since last week’s presidential debate. But he conceded that the ground won’t stabilize until it’s clear whether Biden will remain in the presidential race.
“We don’t know what’s going to happen,” Parrott said. “This is going to throw a lot of uncertainty into a lot of races. We don’t know who the Democrats are going to nominate as their presidential candidate. It’s going to affect all sorts of races at the grassroots level — we just don’t know how.”
Parrott said that even if Biden steps down as the Democratic nominee, his replacement will largely support the president’s policies — which, he argued, people in the 6th District have already begun to oppose.
“(California Gov.) Gavin Newsom, (Michigan Gov.) Gretchen Whitmer, (former first lady) Michelle Obama — all of these people’s policies are the same and they will be rejected by the voters,” Parrott said.
Burton, the Republican Party strategist, said Parrott could also benefit from Delaney being a veteran of the Biden administration who would be held accountable for Biden’s unpopular policies.
Through a spokesperson, Delaney’s campaign declined to comment Monday on the impact of Biden’s debate performance on the 6th District race. The candidate herself spent time on X over the weekend drawing a contrast between her support for abortion rights and Parrott’s pro-life positions.
“I am a mother of four who almost died from an ectopic pregnancy and I probably wish @neilparrott had gotten his way in the state legislature,” she wrote.
Democrats stick to tried-and-true campaign themes
That tactic is consistent with what other Democratic congressional candidates are doing, generally and in the aftermath of the presidential debate. For now, they’re sticking to their talking points on abortion — a winning issue for Democrats in 2022 and more recently — and continuing to try to emphasize Trump’s extremism and perceived personal and political instability.
A series of recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions are also fueling Democrats’ anger, prompting them to vote for them to counter rulings that could dismantle government regulation and strengthen unchecked presidential power.
Gina Ford, a spokesperson for Alsobrooks, said Monday that the basic contours of the Maryland Senate race — and the national policy debates — remain unchanged.
“The president had an unfortunate debate,” she said. “Donald Trump had a terrible presidency. Marylanders not only understand the difference, but are painfully aware of the dangers that Donald Trump and a Republican majority in the Senate pose to our state and our country. This race in Maryland will determine who has the majority.”
A spokesman for Hogan’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment Monday. Hogan also appeared to stick to his message after the White House debate, telling supporters about familiar themes like tax hikes and “Maryland’s sky-high budget deficit.”
Burton said Hogan can contrast his strong leadership record as governor with Biden’s weak debate performance because the president “has not shown leadership.”
The Hogan-Alsobrooks race is unusual given the former governor’s relative popularity and his previous ability to attract Democratic and unaffiliated voters. But Hogan fans will admit that despite his ability to win two gubernatorial elections, it’s an uphill battle to run for Senate in a presidential year, with a constitutional amendment on abortion on the ballot this November, even with Hogan’s frequent criticism of Trump.
Some political strategists have suggested that Hogan might do better in Maryland if voters were confident that Biden would win re-election, because they would be less reluctant to back a Republican with Hogan’s profile.
A poll released last week, before the presidential debate, showed Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 8 points in a multi-candidate general election, with Biden beating Trump 56% to 30% in Maryland. That’s a wide margin, but it suggests Biden is a few points behind where he was in 2020, when he defeated Trump 65% to 32%. In some swing states, those few points could prove crucial in close-down ballot races.
But Mileah Kromer, a political science professor and director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College, predicted that Maryland Democrats won’t have to worry about a weaker Biden, thanks to gerrymandered constituencies, solid Democratic nominees for open seats and Republicans’ loyalty to Trump.
“Moderate and conservative Democrats are the swing voters in Maryland — but they hate Trump,” said Kromer, a pollster and author of a book on Hogan. “Democrats would only have to worry if they had another Republican candidate.” [for president]. Imagine if they were running against Nikki Haley. The negative attention Biden is getting for his debate performance ignores the fact that Trump is Trump — a known commodity that Democrats don’t want to vote for.”
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