Creighton University’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index is a regional version of the national Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) that the Institute for Supply Management publishes each month. (Courtesy of Creighton University)
OMAHA — Confidence in the economy has plummeted, according to Creighton University’s latest monthly survey of supply chain managers in a nine-state region.
Creighton’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index, intended as a leading economic indicator, showed a regional confidence score that fell from 30.6 to 26.7 in August.
When it comes to economic challenges, 35.3 percent of supply chain managers said they saw a recession as the top threat over the next six months, said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton’s economic forecasting group, which has conducted the monthly survey since 1994.
About 23% of respondents saw higher prices as the biggest challenge; nearly 18% expect trade restrictions and tariffs to pose the biggest threat; and the remaining 24% cited other factors as the biggest threat.
In addition to Nebraska, the states of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota are also participating in the study.
For the fourth time in 2024, the region’s overall business conditions index reflected a score below the 50.0 growth-neutral threshold, from 50.7 in July to 48.7 in August. But the measure has hovered around that growth-neutral point throughout the year, Goss said.
The index ranges from 0 to 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral.
As for the region’s wholesale price, Goss said it fell for the sixth straight month, indicating an easing of inflationary pressures.
“The bottom line is that as the economy cools, inflation is also going to come down,” he said. “I think when the numbers come out in September, it’s going to show the Fed making great progress toward its inflation target, but not much progress in terms of maintaining full employment.”
A closer look at Nebraska shows that the overall business conditions index has risen above neutral growth for the fourth time in the past five months, rising to 56.5 from 53.3 in July, the survey found.
SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES IN YOUR INBOX
