Legend: Navy Blue – D+5,000 or more, Blue – D+1,001 to D+4,999, Light Sky Blue – D+1 to D+1,000. Light Salmon – R+1 to R+1,000, Red – R+1,001 to R+4,999, Maroon – R+5,000 or more. (Map by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistribution)
We’re finally here, the final voter registration update before the 2024 presidential election.
As you can clearly see from the map above, Republicans in Pennsylvania continue to abuse the built-up Democratic registration advantage during the Obama years. In end of October 2016For example, Dems had a statewide registration lead of 911,621.
Four years later, the Republican Party managed to reduce that to 700,853. Today, the Democratic margin is just 281,091.
Now, such momentum doesn’t guarantee a win for former President Donald Trump in the Keystone State. It’s worth repeating that with election night looming, voter registrations tend to be lagging indicators. Essentially, it’s not that new voters necessarily get on the list to vote for Trump; instead, we’ll probably see it ancestral democrats who voted for Trump in the past are now officially switching to the Republican Party.
That said, with the election just around the corner – and this Commonwealth It is preferred to be the tipping point state – now is the perfect time to not only dive into these latest registration numbers, but also to analyze what Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump will have to do in these regions to win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
So let’s dive in.
A quick note: I research our changing voter trends by tracking the gains one party has accrued in registrations over the other. For example, R+500 means that the Republican Party in that county gained a net 500 more registered voters than the Democratic Party over this period, while D+500 indicates the opposite.
Central
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Blair: R+1,444
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Bradford: R+793
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Cameron: R+56
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Center: R+145
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Clearfield: R+1,055
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Clinton: R+491
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Colombia: R+755
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Elk: R+384
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Huntingdon: R+440
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Juniata: R+254
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Lycoming: R+1,128
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McKean: R+450
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Mifflin: R+541
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Frame: R+154
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Northumberland: R+945
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Potter: R+219
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Snyder: R+422
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Sullivan: R+70
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Tioga: R+478
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Union: R+276
Even with an influx of new students entering Penn State University, Democrats still failed to make gains in Center County. Donald Trump is trying to undermine Harris’ support for young men, and to that end visited the State College last week. Although it would certainly be a surprise if the GOP won this county for the first time since 2004margins will matter everywhere, even in this predominantly rural, central part of the Commonwealth.
Northeast
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Carbon: R+716
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Lackawanna: R+1,357
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Lucerne: R+2,904
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Monroe: R+792
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Pike: R+636
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Schuylkill: R+1,710
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Susquehanna: R+554
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Wayne: R+679
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Wyoming: R+364
Since my last update, we have seen Republicans overtake Democrats in registrations for Luzerne County, a development long in the making. After all, Trump already is Luzerne won twice by double figures. Nevertheless, Scranton Joe made it real roads through the Northeast four years agobenchmarks that Harris may struggle to meet next week. To that end, the White House just approved nearly $9 million in Amtrak funds to give a late boost here to Senator Bob Casey and US Representative Matt Cartwright.
Northwest
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Clarion: R+506
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Crawford: R+1,020
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Erie: R+1,310
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Forest: R+55
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Jefferson: R+701
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Mercer: R+1,379
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Venango: R+592
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Warren: R+353
There’s a reason why all four presidential and vice presidential candidates – Harris, Trump, Vance And Walz – have all held meetings in the Lake Erie community. Bellwether County voted in for the statewide winner 18 of the 19 presidential elections after World War IIand I imagine it will be 19 out of 20 next week. In terms of registration numbers, Erie is like many of the most crucial counties in this commonwealth: Republicans have the momentum, while Democrats still maintain an edge.
South Central
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Adams: R+1,078
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Bedford: R+624
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Cumberland: R+1,061
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Dauphin: R+856
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Franklin: R+1,422
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Fulton: R+225
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Lancaster: R+3,987
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Lebanon: R+1,351
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Perry: R+533
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York: R+3,688
The South Central region contains the highly educated white voters what Harris is trying to achieve arguments about Trump’s threat to democracy And her long list of Never Trump Republican endorsements. Janelle Stelson also depends on these voters upset her about GOP Fire Rep. Scott Perry in PA’s 10th Congressional District here. Nevertheless, the PA GOP continues to make registration gains in the region, especially in populous Lancaster and York counties, where the Dems were aimed at narrowing Trump’s margins.
Southeast
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Birch: R+3,566
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Bucks: R+4,437
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Chester: R+1,391
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Delaware: R+298
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Lehigh: R+1,103
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Montgomery: R+2,002
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Noordampton: R+712
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Philadelphia: D+8,146
The good news for Democrats is that they were able to increase their numbers in Philadelphia, but the bad news is that Republicans still made real gains in the Collar County suburbs. As I will illustrate shortly; Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery are key to Harris’ path to the White House and she absolutely cannot afford to underperform here.
That said, we shouldn’t underestimate the Lehigh Valley, especially cities like Allentown, where the The Philadelphia Inquirer recently reported this that Puerto Ricans make up 27% of the total population. The Harris campaign was is already targeting these voters as a demographic group in which they could improve after Biden’s performanceand that was before the racist comments at Trump’s MSG rally. Now The Democrats are hopeful that the controversy could drive thousands of late-deciding voters their way.
Southwest
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Allegheny: D+2,134
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Armstrong: R+1,032
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Beaver: R+1,554
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Butler: R+2,431
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Cambria: R+1,509
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Fayette: R+1,849
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Green: R+421
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Indiana: R+1,118
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Laurens: R+985
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Somerset: R+1,002
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Washington: R+2,499
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Westmoreland: R+3,932
While the Southeast will undoubtedly be crucial, we still cannot overlook this vote-rich region. Trump’s 2016 upset was finally driven by the southwest, and Biden’s attempts to eat into Trump’s margins here four years later were integral to his success. To that end, the Harris campaign sent the VP places like Aliquippa And Johnstown in the hope of once again destroying some of Trump’s support.
Moreover, Harris will have to surpass Biden’s strong performance in Allegheny Countythe only other place where Dems picked up registrations in the past month. Home to the Steel City has been a fundamental part of Democratic victories this decade – Johannes Fetterman And Josh Shapiro both have major wins here in 2022 — so Harris will aim to become the first presidential candidate to break the 60% mark in Allegheny since LBJ in 1964.
How many votes does Harris need from Philadelphia and its suburbs?
Elections are really all about the margins.
The Trump team is trying to maximize its margins in Pennsylvania’s rural areas while shrinking Harris’s margins in urban and suburban areas. Conversely, Harris is trying to eat into Trump’s margins in rural areas while increasing her numbers as much as possible in urban and suburban areas.
Given the proximity to the 2020 result (50.01% to 48.84%) each campaign will compare how county vote totals on election night differ from 2020 numbers.
Harris will look to make gains in the South-Central region of the Commonwealth, while Trump looks to grow in the Northeast. Then there are the areas targeted by both campaigns, including: Erie, the Lehigh Valley and the counties surrounding Allegheny.
However, in every respect, one region stands out from all others. Philadelphia and its four-neck counties Four years ago they made up a third of the total votesand Harris’ margin will undoubtedly be crucial there.
To illustrate, I’ve compiled this list of SEPA margins that various statewide Democratic candidates have amassed over the decades.
SEPA voting margins (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties)
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2022 Shapiro: 749,865
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2022 Fetterman: 588,575
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2020 Biden: 764,144
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Wolf 2018: 754,020
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2018 Casey: 704,428
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2016 Clinton: 663,630
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2016 McGinty: 504,264
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2012 Casey: 639,536
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2012-Obama: 615,666
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2008-Obama: 682,392
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Rendell year 2006: 712,080
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2006 Casey: 464,857
As you can see, for years Ed Rendell’s landslide gubernatorial re-election in the Democratic wave year 2006 was the highlight. Hillary Clinton was aiming for that in 2016and although she did better than several others, she failed to reach Rendell’s high. In a Clinton race lost by 44,292 votesthat difference of 48,450 votes with Rendell made the difference.
In the Midterm exams 2018However, Tom Wolf And Bob Casey both won landslide victories, with then-Gov. Wolf even managed to provoke a new SEPA vote margin record of 754,020. This list also allows you to chart Casey’s growth in generating votes from this region, which will be critical to his re-election hopes.
Just two years after Wolf broke Rendell’s record, Joe Biden was able to surpass Wolf’s score by a margin of 764,144. Biden has achieved this largely through his performance in the suburbsbecause his lead in Philadelphia (471.050) did not just disappear Obama’s record margin of 2012 in the city (492,339), but also Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016 (475,277).
In his own 2022 landslide victoryShapiro set a new milestone in the suburbs (388,273), but fell just short overall with declining turnout in Philadelphia (361,592) (749,865).
Ideally for the Harris campaign, she would combine a Shapiro-esque performance in the suburbs with a return to Obama’s margins in Philadelphia. That’s almost certainly too optimistic, but in reality Harris’ White House hopes depend on raising her ceiling in the Southeast.
Although her campaign is cleverly taking on the Commonwealth as a whole, that work still likely won’t pay off if Harris gets a SEPA margin comparable to Hillary Clinton’s (663,630). Instead, she will have to aim closer to the 800,000-vote margin to give her as much leeway as possible in the rest of the state.
So that’s the state of affairs heading into election night. Given the stakes of this election and the importance of the PA’s 19 electoral votes, a Pennsylvanian’s vote has never been more important than it is today. Choose wisely.
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