As Hurricane Milton barrels through Florida, fueled by the record-hot Gulf of Mexico, a new analysis has found that Gulf heat that worsened last month’s Hurricane Helene was 200 to 500 times more likely due to human-induced warming of the earth.
Helene, one of the deadliest storms in U.S. history, accelerated over the Gulf before crashing ashore with 140 mph winds.
Related: Double hurricanes could become commonplace as a result of the climate crisis
The new analysis shows that climate change has increased by 10% compared to the amount of precipitation dumped by the hurricane. More than 220 people were killed in six states when it swept north two weeks ago, flattening and drowning towns, tearing up roads and cutting off water supplies. . It also intensified Helene’s wind by about 13 miles per hour, or 11%.
The burning of fossil fuels has made storms as intense as Hurricane Helene about 2.5 times more likely than in pre-industrial times, according to the multinational group of scientists the World Weather Attribution Group. Should the world warm by 2 degrees Celsius above this pre-industrial period, which will happen without major cuts in emissions, storms like Helene will receive an additional 10% more precipitation, the study found.
“The heat that human activities add to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, part of the attribution group, who added that storms like Helene and Milton are becoming “explosive.” due to excess heat.
A Climate Central study published Monday found that sea surface temperatures around Milton’s path were 400 to 800 times more likely to occur due to the climate crisis.
“If humans continue to warm the climate, we will continue to see storms quickly turn into monstrous hurricanes, leading to even more destruction,” she said.
Helene’s rapid analysis comes ahead of Milton’s impending landfall, which also grew in strength over the Gulf of Mexico, sending scientists from a category one storm to a category five event in just nine hours, with maximum winds of 300km /o’clock.
The disaster is set to hit the Tampa area late Wednesday, prompting dire warnings from the city’s mayor that residents will die if they don’t evacuate.
Both storms grew rapidly over the Gulf, with researchers pointing to exceptional seawater warmth as a key factor in fueling the hurricanes. Since this summer, the surface and deeper waters of the Gulf have reached record temperatures comparable to those of a bathtub, with Milton about to pass a stretch of water near Tampa that is about 2 to 3 degrees warmer than normal .
Hurricanes gain strength from hotter oceans and a warmer atmosphere, with this heat contributing to the pace of the storms while also loading them with extra moisture that is then released as heavy rainfall, creating the kind of catastrophic flooding that leaves communities flooding far inland and west. North Carolina when Helene struck.
“The Gulf is still experiencing abnormally high temperatures and when you have these warm temperatures you are more likely to have rapidly intensifying hurricanes,” said Brian, a climate scientist at the University of Miami.
Related: The Southeast US reels from Helene’s ‘unspeakable tragedy’ as another storm looms
Other factors, such as compensating wind shear that can dissipate hurricanes, are also important in storm formation, but the prolonged fever in the Gulf has made experts increasingly concerned about the potential for events like Helene and Milton, McNoldy said.
“We were nervously waiting, wondering if a hurricane would take advantage of all this heat,” he said. “It’s as if there was a powder keg waiting for a spark. Now we have that spark. Milton is a remarkable storm, exceptional in history in terms of its rate of intensification.”
Scientists noted that a warmer atmosphere can also hold more water vapor, at a rate of about 7% per degree of warming. Currently, the world has warmed by at least 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and there are fears that this will accelerate.
“What many people don’t realize is that only 1% of this extra heat goes into the atmosphere, so our global temperature data only reflects 1% of the total increase in the Earth’s heat content,” says Katharine Hayhoe, head of the organization. scientist at the Nature Conservancy and professor at Texas Tech University. “Eighty-nine percent of this heat goes into the ocean, where it contributes to rising sea levels, deadly marine heat waves, and stronger and faster intensifying hurricanes.”
Just a month before the US presidential election, in which the climate crisis has barely been raised as a campaign issue, the two hurricanes have given American voters a stark reminder of the forces unleashed by a warming planet that could touch almost every aspect of life .
Donald Trump, who has called the climate crisis a “hoax” and a “scam” and has promised to scrap environmental regulations for oil and gas companies in exchange for campaign donations, had to cancel an appearance in Miami this week because of Milton’s impact.
His opponent Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has acknowledged the dangers posed by global warming but has largely stayed off the topic during rallies and interviews.
“Climate change is right in front of us right now and people are making that connection,” said Kathie Dello, state climatologist for North Carolina, which was hit hard by Helene. “There is a realization that we are seeing things we have never seen before, that we are vulnerable to climate change and that we are not prepared for the consequences.
“Climate itself is never the No. 1 election issue, but the economy is suffering from hurricanes, we have schools closed and people without food, shelter and water. The climate is all connected to that.”
The solution, according to the UN, is to stop the burning of fossil fuels. “Our future is in our hands,” says Hayhoe.
