Over the past two years, the battle for the Senate has focused on a handful of closely watched states. But weeks before Election Day, Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into the fringes of their battlegrounds, betting on the chance of an extra seat in their column.
And they are long-term races, especially during presidential elections, when ticket sharing is not as common as it used to be. In some cases, challengers have outpaced incumbents. But in all four races — Florida, Texas, Nebraska and Maryland — one of the presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, is expected to easily carry the state, making it even more of a challenge for a member of the other party becomes more difficult to conquer the state. turn the chair around.
Yet the parties see opportunities. In Maryland, Republicans are hoping that popular former Gov. Larry Hogan can bring in the independents and Democrats who helped him win two terms. In Florida and Texas, Democrats are focusing on state abortion bans in an effort to overcome their recent losses in those states. And in Nebraska, an independent is waging an unusual challenge against a two-term Republican senator.
In Texas and Florida, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee said last month it would launch a “multi-million dollar investment” in TV ad spending.
Those races, in which Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the Lone Star State and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott in the Sunshine State have certainly received their fair share of national credentials. attention.
Allred in particular has vastly outpaced Cruz, helping his campaign spend $23 million on campaign ads in September and nearly $10 million in the first 10 days of October alone, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking company.
Cruz’s campaign spent nearly $5 million on ads in September and $4 million in the first ten days of October. But super PAC spending in his favor and ads paid for by his leadership PAC and the state’s Republican Party also gave him a boost.
The difference in spending is less stark in Florida, where Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign raised $8.6 million in September and Scott’s campaign raised $2.1 million. Through the first 10 days of October, the former congressman’s campaign had spent more than $5 million, while Scott, a wealthy businessman who has poured his own money into his political campaigns, has spent just $1.7 million.
But Scott’s campaign has racked up another $5.2 million in campaign ads through Election Day, with more to come.
Despite promises to spend millions in both states, the DSCC has yet to make any ad bookings in Florida. And in Texas, it made a coordinated ad buy alongside Allred’s campaign worth $1.6 million.
“A lot of money has been spent in Texas, but the truth is, if [Democrats] to compete, they will have to spend much more than they have spent. This includes Florida,” a national Republican strategist told NBC News, pouring cold water on the idea that Democrats are seeing a late surge in their favor in both states.
Still, strategists on the ground point to several factors beyond spending as reasons why these races could change in their favor.
In Florida, voters will have their say in November on two ballot measures that Democrats say could swing turnout in their favor — one that would legalize marijuana and one that would expand access to abortion. Florida currently bans abortion after six weeks, as does Texas.
A campaign spokesman for Mucarsel-Powell told NBC News that Scott “wrapped his arms around the state’s abortion ban when it was signed into law, and that could pose a risk to him among voters who plan to vote to increase access to expand.
And in the wake of two hurricanes that devastated parts of the state, the same spokesperson said they plan to hit Scott, who served as governor of the state before running for Senate, on the property insurance crisis plaguing the state.
In TV ads, Scott has hit back. In one ad, he addresses voters directly, telling them that he and his daughter “both agree.” [in vitro fertilization] must be protected for our family, for every family.”
The ad refutes an argument from national Democrats that Republicans who support abortion bans will also try to limit access to IVF treatments.
In another ad, he goes on the attack and denounces Mucarsel-Powell as a “socialist” who wants “higher taxes for families.”
In Texas, Democrats pressed Cruz on abortion and on a 2021 trip to Cancun as the state faced an energy crisis in the wake of a massive winter storm.
Republicans in the border state have responded by boosting Cruz’s credibility on border security, with a Cruz-sponsored ad in which the Harris County district attorney, a Democrat, tells voters, “I support Ted Cruz because Democrats and Republicans need to work together to solve problems. The Texans’ problems now.”
Cruz and other Republicans also pressed Allred on the issue of transgender women and girls participating in sports.
In an ad paid for by Cruz’s campaign, a narrator criticizes Allred for promoting “an extremely liberal vision for America: boys in girls’ locker rooms, boys in girls’ bathrooms, boys in girls’ sports.”
Earlier this week, Allred responded, telling voters in his own ad: “Let me be clear. I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports or all those ridiculous things Ted Cruz says.”
Allred’s response to Cruz’s attacks “shows it was a good message” that resonated with voters, the national Republican official said.
Despite Democrats’ efforts to pour money and attention into these races, they still haven’t become the competitive nail-biters that the races are shaping up to be in Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio and the swing states of Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter still rates the Florida Senate race as “Likely Republican,” although the group moved the Texas Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” earlier this month.
The week before, the group also shifted the Nebraska Senate race slightly away from Republicans, from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” even though that state leans heavily in Trump’s favor if he’s on top.
That move came as independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn gained ground over GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in recent public and internal polls.
In Maryland, the Senate race has similar dynamics, with the race rated “Likely Democrat” by Cook, even though Harris is expected to win easily there.
Hogan has mounted a formidable challenge against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race she was expected to win easily if she faced another Republican.
Although Alsobrooks is leading in public opinion polls, a source close to her campaign told NBC News it is “definitely a competitive race,” adding, “I don’t underestimate a former governor of eight years.”
And Hogan, even though he is running as a Republican and working with the National Republican Senatorial Committee to create joint TV ads, has portrayed himself as an “independent, common-sense leader” and a “maverick” who promises to be an “important voice to be able to vote’. stand up to the crazies on both sides, to the extremes of both parties.”
“We ran an aggressive race, just like Larry Hogan,” a source close to Alsobrooks added, but pointed to the county executive’s main argument against the former governor: that he would give Republicans a majority in the Senate.
“As a person, I love Larry Hogan,” Alsobrooks said at a campaign event in September. “But that is not the question we answer in this election. We decide which side controls the Senate.”
In Nebraska, Osborn has tried to run the race as a true independent, rejecting support from figures from both parties. But Democrats have decided not to put forward a candidate, tacitly clearing space for Osborn and giving him a chance to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and some Republicans.
“The polling in my race is consistent with what I’m seeing in Nebraska,” Osborn told NBC News in a statement, adding: “Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers and working families is resonating because the Nebraskans need a senator who will listen to them, who will stand up for them and who will be a strong voice for them in the Senate.”
Republicans in the state have tried to portray Osborn as a Democrat in disguise, citing independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support for a 77-day strike that Osborn organized while working as a mechanic at a Kellogg’s factory in the state in 2021.
Democrats have fought back, noting that Osborn’s strike was supported by a bipartisan group of politicians, including then-Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts, who called on the company to negotiate with the striking workers in December of that year.
Ad spending there has remained relatively low, at least compared to other Senate races that are considered competitive.
In September, Fischer and her supporters spent $1.8 million supporting her and criticizing Osborn, while the former union worker and his supporters spent $2.7 million.
Republicans say the race will reset itself in Fischer’s favor before Election Day, pointing to Trump’s strength in the state. The former president endorsed Fischer last month.
In a statement, Fischer’s campaign manager, Derek Oden, pointed to an internal campaign poll conducted earlier this month that showed Fischer leading Osborn by six points, toward the edge of (but still within) the margin of error. (Fischer has won each of her two terms in the Senate by double digits.)
“We expect this positive trend to continue as time passes and more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn is not an independent — he is a liberal Democrat in disguise,” Oden said in a statement.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
