No state screams “blue wall” louder than Minnesota.
There hasn’t been a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972.
Democrats say former president Donald Trump doesn’t stand a chance there.
And yet chairman Joe Biden‘s campaign is ousting top-tier local Democratic surrogates – governor. Tim Walz and Sen. Tina Smith — on Friday to oppose Trump’s visit to the state. This follows hot on the heels of the first lady Jill Biden‘s campaign in the state last month.
All the attention suggests both campaigns see Minnesota as an emerging battleground in a race likely to be decided in a relative handful of states. Democrats readily admit that a Trump victory there would spell disaster for them nationwide. But those in the party who know the state best argue that Trump stealing the state is an exaggeration.
“President Biden will win,” Walz said bluntly in an interview. “It’s no surprise that Donald Trump says something that isn’t true.”
Walz noted that Biden was closer to winning Texas in 2020 than Trump was to winning Minnesota. That was after Trump famously said he would “never come back” to the state if he lost. He added that Biden has brought billions of dollars in infrastructure projects to the state.
Trump also lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“But we don’t take it for granted. We will have the necessary infrastructure,” Walz said. “So the lie about saying you’re going to win Minnesota? Give it a good try, but we will do our job.”
Minnesota lacks the constituencies Trump often appeals to, including blue-collar workers and those without college degrees. And it largely supports the right to abortion.
Although Democratic officials are regularly elected statewide, one notable exception was the 1998 gubernatorial victory of Reform Party candidate Jesse “The Body” Ventura, a former pro wrestler who won after running a low-budget campaign.
The Biden campaign has projected confidence in Minnesota, where it already has staff and organization, while Trump has been virtually absent this campaign.
“Essentially what we do in Minnesota and Virginia is we don’t take any state or vote for granted. We have had a team on the ground in both places working hard to engage voters, build trust in the community as we open offices and grow our workforce footprint,” said Dan Kanninen, director of Battleground States for the Biden campaign , during a meeting. recent briefing for reporters. “We feel strong – the Biden-Harris coalition – in both Minnesota and Virginia, which were strong in the midterms and off-year elections and will continue to be strong for us in the fall of 2024.”
And yet Trump’s team has been optimistic for weeks about his ability to gain ground in the state. At a May 4 event in Palm Beach, Florida, top Trump advisers told donors that Trump and Biden were tied at 40% in a six-way trial in Minnesota — including four independent candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. weighed 9%.
“Joe Biden is so weak, and the Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump winning every traditional battleground state, but old blue states like Minnesota, Virginia and New Jersey are now in play,” says Karoline Leavitt, the Trump president. the campaign’s national press secretary said in a statement. “President Trump is on the attack with a winning message and is expanding his movement every day. Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”
Outside the courthouse in New York City this week, Trump again addressed his prospects in Minnesota.
“We think we have a really good opportunity in Minnesota, where we have great friendships there. We’ve done a lot for the industry,” he said. “We’ve done a lot for everything in Minnesota. We’ve worked hard on Minnesota.”
Trump will appear Friday evening at the Lincoln Reagan Dinner, hosted by the Republican Party.
In an electoral battleground where few states are really in play, both campaigns are looking for opportunities to win — or at least make strong enough headlines to make the opposition spend precious money on defense. Even with that in mind, Trump campaign officials are persistent and consistent in their optimism about Minnesota.
Senior advisor Chris LaCivita called the state “a real opportunity” in a recent interview.
Democrats note that some of Trump’s same big talk was true in 2020, just before Biden handily won the state by about 7 percentage points, giving him 52.4% of the vote to Trump’s 45.3%.
“There was a time in 2020 when the numbers were closing in Minnesota. But then it quickly opened up again with a good Democratic lead. You have a very strong Democratic brand and a Democratic operation in Minnesota. You have a Democratic governor who always helps you with a few points,” said veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “You have a state that fundamentally disagrees with Donald Trump on so many of his positions and priorities, and especially on his character.
“I mean, if you want the opposite of ‘Minnesota nice,’ vote for Donald Trump,” she added.
Complicating the equation for Democrats, however, is the breakdown of their party, which became apparent during this year’s Minnesota primaries. Then the “uncommitted” choice on the Democratic ballot won 19% of the vote, buoyed by the large Arab and Muslim populations in Minneapolis and St. Paul, known as the Twin Cities. Minnesota had a larger protest vote than Michigan, which also has a large Arab and Muslim population. There, 13% voted “not recorded” in the primaries. In both cases, the election campaign was a clear message to Biden to oppose the war between Israel and Hamas.
“There is no doubt that we have work to do in the next six months to unite our party. And we will,” said Ken Martin, chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.
“But I have often said that this moment does not predict what will happen on November 5. … This is still a pretty existential choice for voters. And while I’ve talked to a number of people who voted uncommitted in our primaries and are protesting, they still tell me that while they are deeply frustrated right now by what’s happening in the Middle East, they still intend are to vote for Joe Biden. and they understand the stakes of this election.”
Walz said Trump is facing a rift in his own party, pointing out that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won 20% of the vote in last week’s Indiana primary despite dropping out of office in March. battle had fallen.
Lake argued that Democrats who drifted away from Biden in the primaries would eventually come back to him, saying, “It’s a long way from being ‘committed’ to Donald Trump.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
