SAN ANTONIO – Margaret Kanyusik had been to several political events at Backyard on Broadway, a restaurant in this South Texas city, before coming to see Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee for Senate, address several dozen supporters here last week for an event the campaign was billed as a ‘huddle’.
“I went to that place when it was busier and more enthusiastic,” said Kanyusik, a retiree and volunteer for the League of Women Voters.
Democrats hope they can drum up some more enthusiasm for Allred with substantially more ambitious plans for Friday in Houston: a rally alongside Vice President Kamala Harris and Beyoncé. The event, aimed at drawing attention to Texas’ draconian anti-abortion laws, will put Allred at the center of the political universe as it becomes increasingly clear that he may be among Democrats’ best hope for regaining control to retain the Senate.
Senate Majority PAC, which is controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced Thursday it would spend $5 million on television ads in the state, their first foray into the race between Allred and unpopular incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who is being dragged both through his infamous trip to Cancun during a snowstorm in 2021 and his steadfast support for the strict anti-abortion laws that Harris’ event aims to highlight.
“In such an important election, the Senate Majority PAC is committed to ensuring Texans understand the choice that awaits them in November,” said JB Poersch, chairman of the group. “That’s why we’re going on the offensive, so that in just a few months the Texans can have a trusted, bipartisan senator in Colin Allred and push Cancun Cruz aside.”
Democratic internal polling has shown Allred with a narrow lead over Cruz, say two sources who were not authorized to discuss the results, though nonpartisan election forecasters still consider him a long shot — 538 gives him just an 18% chance of winning win, while Split Ticket only gives him an 18% chance of winning. he has a 27% chance. And the simple fact that Democrats may need him to win a state where they haven’t prevailed in three decades to keep the Senate illustrates the party’s struggle with a body where rural white voters have vastly disproportionate influence.
National Democrats continue to maintain that Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is within the margin of error in his race against Republican Tim Sheehey, though GOP super PACs are confident enough to pull some money from the race. While public polls show Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) with a narrow lead, the Republican Party insists businessman Bernie Moreno now has an advantage.
(There’s also the possibility that independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska could upset Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, but it’s unclear how a win for Osborn — who has sworn off association with either party — will boost Democrats’ hopes for a majority would influence.)
Democrats need both Brown and one of Tester or Allred to triumph to maintain control of the Senate completing a series of five swing state races where public opinion polls show them in the lead.
Republicans have mainly scoffed at the idea that Allred is a real threat, while acknowledging the race is closer than they would like. “It is no surprise that Colin Allred is closing his campaign with disgraced border czar Kamala Harris, given his record of 100% support for her agenda,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Phil Letsou. “Allred and Harris will turn Texas into California if given the chance.”
Republicans have noted a key difference between Allred’s race and the 2018 contest, where then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke nearly ousted Cruz, ultimately losing by just 3 percentage points. Then O’Rourke had a huge spending advantage over the Republicans. But spending from both a Cruz-specific super PAC and the conservative Club for Growth has prevented Allred from creating a similar advantage, even though he has raised $11 million in the past 16 days, according to Federal Election Commission reports filed Thursday .
Democrats have also noted differences. Without questioning the Allred campaign’s strategy, Kanyusik remembered O’Rourke’s bid as much more energetic. She said O’Rourke personally visited her home, as well as the homes of several of her friends, because of their efforts to raise money for his Senate campaign, which was crisscrossing the state to energize Democratic voters.
‘I’m not dissing Allred, he’s running his own campaign and the political climate is so different than even two years ago. He doesn’t have to do what Beto did and sit in the weeds with the kids and take the million pictures and all that stuff,” Kanyusik said. “It’s the way his campaign is being run, and it’s just different.”
Of course, O’Rourke didn’t win, so another strategy might be worth trying. Allred has tried to portray himself as a moderate willing to work with Republicans in an effort to win over moderate voters. He also focuses intensely on abortion rights, which was the theme of his brief remarks in the Backyard on Broadway.
“We believe in freedom. You’re not free if you have to worry that if you’re going to start a family in this state, that if something goes wrong, you might have to leave the state. This is not freedom,” Allred said.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal right to abortion in 2022, prompting Texas and other Republicans to ban the procedure, the issue of reproductive freedom has propelled Democrats to victories in special elections and helped avoid a “red wave” in midterm elections . year.
The issue is the focus of Friday’s meeting, which features the couple who led the lawsuit against Texas’ abortion ban, a woman who shared a heartbreaking story about losing her child and a military spouse concerned about attacks on IVF, all were willing to work with Allred and Harris.
At the event, Allred shared with his supporters the stories of women like Kate Cox who were unable to obtain abortions in Texas, even when complications from desired pregnancies threatened their health. He’ll probably say the same thing on Friday.
“I’ve been in these rooms with my wife and the doctor,” Allred said. ‘They’re too small for Ted Cruz to be in them. He called the fall of Roe a huge victory.
Texas Majority PAC, a Democratic group formed in 2022 with funding from billionaire philanthropist George Soros and leadership from veterans of O’Rourke’s campaigns, has outlined an ambitious plan to turn the state blue by 2032. The group essentially brings together teams of experienced people. “out-the-vote” organizers with the ultimate goal of turning out a million more Democrats in future elections.
The organization said in an annual report this week that its volunteers knocked on nearly a million doors this election cycle and spoke to more than 125,000 registered Democrats who said they would vote in the upcoming election. The group’s main goals next month are to win a handful of races in Congress and the Texas Legislature, making it worthwhile to widen Allred’s margins even if victory is out of reach.
“It’s still harder to win in Texas as a Democrat than as a Republican,” TMP executive director Katherine Fischer said in an interview. “But we are now operating under more favorable conditions than we expected even a few months ago. So I don’t think it’s impossible. I still find it quite a challenge.”
Cruz’s campaign, meanwhile, seemed happy that Allred would share the stage with Harris on Friday. Allred has distanced himself from the top of the ticket, while Cruz has created “Colin Allred.” is Kamala Harris” a stock phrase.
“Colin and Kamala share an agenda,” a spokesperson for Cruz said, “and now they will share a stage for all Texans to watch.”
