As Democrats regroup after the 2024 elections, some are finding cautious optimism in an unlikely place: state legislatures.
Although the party faced disappointing results, such as losing the Michigan State House, it did not face the kind of devastating mess that often accompanies other national elections.
The state legislative results were far from a triumph for Democrats. But they are separate from the presidential race, in which Vice President Kamala Harris lost every swing state — including states where Democrats made gains in state government or retained their majorities. Democrats retained a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House, flipped 14 seats in Wisconsin under new electoral maps, and broke the Republican Party’s supermajority in North Carolina, lending weight to Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s veto.
“I just can’t remember an election where we’ve been in the same presidential battlegrounds and where we’ve been able to maintain the successes we had and limit the losses in the way that we did,” said Heather Williams, head of US presidential elections. The legislative campaign arm of the Democrats. “To be able to hold our own in Pennsylvania and maintain that majority despite the losses, there is certainly something to be learned from that.”
It’s not the kind of sweeping dominance Democrats had hoped for this election cycle, but strategists focused on these races say these results prove Democrats have discovered what it takes to be successful in the United States.
Republicans find the idea laughable.
“I don’t understand how anyone out there could view this as anything other than an unmitigated disaster,” said Dee Duncan, chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, who is leaving his post at the end of this year.
While Democrats acknowledge they fell short, they view this year’s results as the foundation for future cycles — even if they can’t do anything about what happens at the top of the ticket.
“We know that cycle after cycle we’re building the best sailboat we can in the state legislatures, but we can’t control the wind at the higher voting level,” said Leslie Martes, chief strategy officer of Forward Majority, a PAC that has $45 issued. million this cycle on supporting Democratic state legislative candidates.
Democratic groups emphasize one lesson: They need more money and attention from the rest of the party.
“While we are clearly encouraged by Democrats’ resilience in the House races, we must also be clear about one thing: this overperformance has happened Despite the efforts of the national party at the state legislative level, and not because of them,” reads a post-election memo from the Democratic group that the States Project shared exclusively with POLITICO.
The group, founded in 2017 by former New York lawmaker Daniel Squadron and Democratic donor Adam Pritzker, has emerged as a top player in Democratic state legislative circles — spending more than $70 million this cycle to elect the Democrats.
“Simply put, national Democrats continue to overlook and underfund state legislative campaigns,” the memo reads.
Williams, the chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, had also warned of a lack of investment ahead of the election.
It is routine for committees to sound the alarm about money problems – and it is a particularly persistent complaint, one that is often overshadowed.
Democrats see the record amount of money poured into these races as one of the main reasons why their legislative candidates have largely bucked national electoral trends. The DLCC received $2.5 million from Harris’ campaign and the Democratic National Committee — a historic sum, but still a small amount considering the massive political spending even further down the line. The DNC has also poured more than $260 million into state parties this cycle — money that went in part to these down-ballot races.
In a crucial race for the majority in the Pennsylvania State House, eight-term Frank Burns, running in a heavily Republican district, has spent more than $4 million on advertising, while Republicans have spent $2.5 million, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Two years ago, total expenditures were $1.5 million.
In Arizona, outside Democratic groups funneled millions of dollars. The States Project alone spent $9.3 million in the state, which was 13 times more than the next largest national funder, according to the memo. Still, despite being outpaced by Democrats in key races, Republicans ultimately gained ground.
The only Democrat to flip a seat in the Legislature, Rep.-elect Kevin Volk, said he is still focused on his top issues, such as improving public education and affordable housing, but that Democrats’ inability to maintain control to take over “changes the parameters of what is possible. ”
Now Democrats are looking ahead, because the power struggle in the states is far from over. Because state lawmakers are elected to Congress, there are a handful of vacancies in Virginia and Michigan that could lead to ties in their state legislatures.
Michigan Democrats are facing the potential of a tied Senate. A special election will be held to elect Democratic Rep.-elect. Kristen McDonald-Rivet on a rocking chair, and if Republicans pick up this pick, they’ll have to rely on Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist as the tiebreaker.
Virginia will hold a special election in January for Democratic Rep.-elect’s seat. Suhas Subramanyam in the Senate. It’s a district favored by Democrats, which will be important given their one-seat majority. If Republicans can turn it around, it would level the Senate, leading to Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears would cast a deciding vote. There will also be a special election for a safe Democratic seat in the state House.
No special election has yet been scheduled for Republican-elect John McGuire’s Senate seat, although it is expected to remain in Republican hands.
Virginia will also face a high-stakes battle for the State House next year. Democrats scored a huge victory in 2023, when they flipped control of the House and claimed full control of the state legislature.
“The dynamics change a little bit from election year to election year, and we’re in new, uncharted territory, but the basics remain the same and we’re getting pretty good results from year to year,” said Susan, chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia. Swecker.
Swecker said she was heartened by some of the recent results in Virginia. Based on data still being finalized, Harris has won 59 of the 100 state House districts — just one fewer than President Joe Biden won in 2020 — and 25 of the 40 Senate districts, one more than Biden.
But she also warned against drawing too many conclusions from this month’s election, urging against finger-pointing.
“We’re two weeks away from an earth-shattering election, and we’re still trying to figure it out,” she said. “I think the worst thing you can do as a leader is stand up and say, ‘These are the three things we need to change and the three things we haven’t done right.’ How about taking a moment and really looking at things and finding out what happened.
