Democrats running in California’s six fiercely competitive congressional districts, seats that could determine the balance of power in Washington, are joining their Republican rivals in support of an anti-crime ballot measure that voters will decide in the November election.
That unity signals the political vulnerability Democratic candidates could face when it comes to the crime issue, especially in tight races. Recent polls show broad support among voters for the Proposition 36 initiative, which would impose stiffer penalties for shoplifting and crimes involving fentanyl.
At stake are a half-dozen congressional seats in Orange County, the Inland Empire and the Antelope and San Joaquin Valleys, regions of California that are neither far-left nor far-right. The races are among a handful in the U.S. that both parties see as crucial in determining control of Congress.
Democratic candidates face the dangerous task of responding to voters’ concerns about drug addiction, organized shoplifting and homelessness — without alienating their liberal and left-wing support.
“I would think a Republican opponent would love a Democratic candidate to oppose Prop. 36 would oppose because it would be very easy for them to portray them as soft on crime,” said Jared Sichel, a strategist for Republican, conservative and independent candidates. located in Orange County. “If you are a Democrat who opposes Prop. is 36, that will hurt you in November.”
Sichel suggested that most of these swing races are outside major cities and cover parts of Orange County and the Central Valley, where you have a “healthy mix of Republicans and Democrats” who “don’t want to live in disorder.”
“Most residents of other California counties would like to see their law enforcement and government attitudes toward crime more like Orange County than San Francisco or Los Angeles,” he said.
Read more: Your guide to Proposition 36: Tougher penalties for certain drug and theft crimes
Overall, property crimes in California are declining. These crimes have decreased in 46 counties and increased in six of the 15 largest counties, including Orange County, which saw only a 1% increase in 2023. Alameda County saw the largest increase, at 28%. In 2023, 6,850 people died from ingesting the deadly drug fentanyl, an extremely powerful opioid that has been ravaging the state exponentially since 2019.
The debate over Proposition 36 has divided California Democrats, with Governor Gavin Newsom and leading Democratic lawmakers strongly opposing the November ballot measure, and the Democratic mayors of San Diego, San Francisco and San José among those supporting it.
Proposition 36 aims to restructure portions of Proposition 47, a measure voters overwhelmingly passed in 2014 on a promise to decongest California’s overcrowded prisons by reclassifying some non-violent crimes from felonies to misdemeanors . It would also mandate drug treatment as an option — as opposed to jail time — for those who commit certain drug offenses. Opponents call the measure costly, saying there are already tools for law enforcement and prosecutors to use and that the drug treatment component is largely unfunded, which will result in most people opting for jail instead of treatment. Advocates say this will bring California into an era of mass treatment and a crackdown on repeat offenders.
In California’s 13th Congressional District in the Central Valley, where agriculture and public safety issues are of paramount importance, Democrat Adam Gray is running against incumbent Republican Rep. John Duarte and has expressed support for Proposition 36. Gray is running in the much-watched swing district after being defeated by Duarte in 2022, despite Democrats having a strong voter registration advantage.
Gray told The Times he thinks the measure will “restore accountability for repeat offenders” and give law enforcement the tools to enforce that.
In a new race in the Inland Empire’s 41st Congressional District, Democratic hopeful Will Rollins is taking on Rep. for the second time. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation.
Read more: The Yes on Proposition 36 campaign is giving $1 million to the Republican Party of California weeks before the election
Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, told The Times he supports Proposition 36 but insisted there must be more representatives in Congress supporting federal law enforcement at the southern border to stem the flow of fentanyl.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll released in late September found that 71% of likely voters in California said they would vote for Proposition 36.
Support was even stronger in San Diego and Orange counties, where 74% of voters would vote in favor of the measure. That same survey found that 44% of registered voters in California’s ten most competitive congressional districts said the outcome of Proposition 36 is “very important.”
In the San Joaquin Valley, part of the Central Valley, 82% of voters support Proposition 36, according to a poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by The Times.
“Congressional candidates cannot avoid talking about Prop. 36 to talk,” says Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s lead researcher. “It’s where people say they’re most interested in it.”
Michael Wagaman, a Democratic consultant, said it’s not surprising that candidates are responding to voters’ fears about drug and property crimes. Along with Republicans hammering Democrats on the crime issue this election, including former President Trump in his bid to return to the White House, voters can see the impact when they see items on locked shelves in drugstores and supermarkets.
“Voters are clearly concerned about things like razor blades behind plexiglass and fentanyl found in school backpacks,” Wagaman said. “So people running for office are aware of these concerns and responding to them is not a surprise.”
Read more: Kamala Harris still does not want to comment on the strict criminal measures in California
In California’s 47th Congressional District, which includes Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach and Huntington Beach, state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) and Republican Scott Baugh are vying for an open seat. The seat is vacant after Rep. Katie Porter unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate.
Baugh condemned Min for his record on public safety issues. He ridiculed Min on[supporting] reducing penalties for theft and leaving rampant vandalism and grabbing in our shopping centers. In recent months, conservative political action committees have spent $7.5 million opposing Min. About $4.4 million has been spent opposing Baugh.
Nevertheless, Min has campaigned as a moderate Democrat on public safety issues, splitting from his Democratic colleagues in Sacramento by supporting Proposition 36.
In other major districts:
-
Derek Tran, who is running against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th Congressional District in northern Orange County, said that as part owner of a small business that has been burglarized “several times” in the past year, he stands for “common sense reforms like Prop. 36.”
-
Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd Congressional District, who is running against incumbent Rep. David Valadao, and George Whitesides, who is running against incumbent Mike Garcia in the 27th Congressional District, also support the measure.
-
Joe Kerr, a Democrat and retired fire chief, who is taking his chances run into Young Kim from Orange County in California’s 40th Congressional District, which still has a Republican voter lead of 3.7 percentage points, has also chosen to support the measure.
“This could be a case if candidates have the same position [on some issues] it can allow voters to focus on other issues where there are major disagreements on policy,” Wagaman said. There is only so much time in a campaign to get voters’ attention.
Times staff writer Hannah Fry contributed to this story.
Sign up for Essential California to get news, features, recommendations from the LA Times and more delivered to your inbox six days a week.
This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
