Kamala Harris received at least 22,000 fewer votes in Michigan’s most Arab-American and Muslim cities than Joe Biden did four years ago, according to a Guardian analysis of raw voting data in the critical swing state.
The numbers also show that Trump made small gains in those areas — about 9,000 votes — suggesting Harris’s loss there is more due to Arab Americans not voting or casting ballots for third-party candidates.
Support for Democrats also fell in seven districts in the country with significant Arab American or Muslim populations, according to data collected by the Arab American Institute. It found a combined drop in the seven districts, from about 4,900 votes in 2020 to just 3,400 this election.
Related: After the election in Saginaw, Michigan, the swing county in the swing state that swung to the right
Another analysis, based on national exit polls by the Council on American Islamic Relations, found that 53% of Muslim Americans voted for Jill Stein. The same poll showed that 21% of Muslims voted for Trump and 20.3% for Harris.
The decline in Democratic support in Hamtramck, Dearborn and Dearborn Heights – three Michigan cities with the largest Arab-American and Muslim populations per capita in the country – represents nearly 27% of the 81,000-vote difference between Harris and Donald Trump in the state.
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The number of votes Harris lost in Michigan over the White House’s Israel policy is almost certainly higher. The analysis looked only at the three population centers, not the large Arab-American population spread across the region. Some estimated before the election that Harris could lose as many as 90,000 votes in the state.
In Dearborn, a Detroit suburb that is nearly 60% Arab-American, Biden received about 31,000 votes in 2020, while Harris received just over 15,000 votes. Trump, who campaigned in Dearborn in the final days of the election, received about 18,000 votes, compared to 13,000 in the previous election. Meanwhile, Stein received about 7,600 Dearborn votes this year.
Stein and Cornell West, third-party candidates who broke through among voters frustrated with Harris but unwilling to vote for Trump, combined for about 50,000 votes statewide.
Michigan is virtually a must-win swing state, and frustration with the Biden administration’s Gaza policy was seen as a major responsibility of Harris. While the issue accounts for a significant portion of Harris’s loss in the state, she also underperformed Michigan voters in multiple demographics, and inflation was a top issue for many.
But Arab-American and Muslim voters who left the Democratic party made a “significant difference” in the swing states of the upper Midwest, said Muslims for Trump founder Rabiul Chowdhury. He said Trump and his surrogates were working in heavily Arab-American areas to make up for his past anti-Muslim past, and promised peace in Gaza and the Middle East. Not Harris, he said.
“Everyone’s ultimate goal was to punish Harris and the best way to do this was to vote for Trump,” Chowdhury said.
Representative Rashida Tlaib, the Palestinian-American and the most outspoken critic of US-Israeli policy in Congress, received more than 24,000 votes in Dearborn, doubling Harris’ total. However, she only slightly outpaced Harris in neighboring Dearborn Heights.
In Hamtramck, a city bordering Detroit that is about 60% Muslim or Arab-American, Biden received about 6,500 votes in 2020, while Harris fell to 3,200. Meanwhile, Trump’s vote count in the city rose by about 2,000, while Stein received just over 600 votes.
Trump increasing his vote in Hamtramck, but not Dearborn, may reflect the fact that Yemeni and Bangladeshi American immigrants in Hamtramck are generally considered more conservative than Dearborn’s largely Lebanese population, observers say. Dearborn heavily supported Bernie Sanders during the 2016 and 2020 primaries, and its mayor, Abdullah Hammoud, was once one of the most progressive representatives in the statehouse.
Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib is very socially conservative. He endorsed Trump before the presidential election and spoke at Trump’s final campaign rally in the state on Monday.
In Dearborn Heights, a city that is about half Arab-American, Biden won by more than 12,000 votes in 2020; In this election, Trump won the city by 11,000 votes, and Harris received 9,000 votes.
Meanwhile, in a Houston district with a significant Arab-American population, Democratic support fell from 520 votes to 300 votes. Democratic support in a Minneapolis district where Muslim or Arab Americans make up the majority of voters fell from about 2,100 votes to 1,100 votes.
James Zogby, an Arab-American pollster and member of the Democratic National Committee, noted that the Harris campaign was repeatedly warned of the votes it would lose if it did not change course on Gaza or meet with key community leaders.
“They screwed up,” Zogby said. “We have given [the Harris campaign] multiple options and ideas on how to do this, and finally they started with three days off, but it was way too late in the game.
Mohamed Gula, director of Emgage, an Islamic political advocacy group, said “a lot needs to change and Democrats would have to do a lot” to win back Arab and Muslim voters.
“There wasn’t a complete belief that Trump was better than Harris – it was that the situation was not acceptable and that change is needed, and we will take what comes from that and do what we need to do,” he said.
Chowdury said Muslim voters in 2028 will support the party that most promotes peace.
“We don’t know what the future holds,” he said. “Today it is a matter of ending the war and supporting the man who gives us the certainty that the war will end.”
Read more about the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
