An FBI Evidence Response Team investigator walks behind a crime scene. The FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report, released in early June, suggests violent crime is down 15% compared to the first quarter of 2023. (Ann Arbor Miller/The Associated Press)
Violent crime in the United States fell significantly in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report released earlier this month.
FBI data, collected from nearly 12,000 law enforcement agencies representing about 77% of the nation’s population, suggests violent crime is down 15% compared to the first quarter of 2023.
The data, which covers reported crimes from January through March, showed a 26.4 percent decrease in murders, a 25.7 percent decrease in rapes, a 17.8 percent decrease in robberies and a 12.5 percent decrease in aggravated assaults. Reported property crimes also fell by 15.1 percent.
Nevertheless, the widespread public perception remains that crime is on the rise – a perception reinforced by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and many other Republican candidates – could play a prominent role in the November elections. And legislative and gubernatorial candidates from both parties are also likely to cite crime statistics on the stump.
In a Gallup poll conducted late last year, 63 percent of respondents described the crime problem in the U.S. as extremely or very serious, the highest percentage since Gallup began asking the question in 2000.
If you are politically active, it is incredibly easy to take advantage of the fear of crime.
– Dan Gardner, author of “Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear”
In May, Trump incorrectly called FBI data showing a decline in crime “fake numbers.” This month he falsely claimed that FBI crime statistics exclude 30% of cities, including the “largest and most violent.”
He could have been referring to the fact that some departments were unable to report data in 2021 because the FBI switched data reporting systems, but experts say the overall numbers still hold.
President Joe Biden has also used crime statistics for political gain. In a May campaign email, Biden said Trump “oversaw the largest increase in homicides in US history.” While this is not entirely incorrect — the country saw its largest annual increase in homicides in 2020 — it leaves out context regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrest following the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.
The FBI’s latest crime statistics are consistent with other early data from 2024. In May, the Major Cities Chiefs Association released data from the first quarter of a survey of 68 major metropolitan police departments. It showed that the number of murders had fallen by 17% compared to the same period last year.
The most recent data from the FBI is preliminary and unaudited, meaning it will change as more law enforcement agencies refine their figures throughout the year. National crime data is incomplete because it includes only crimes reported to police, and not every law enforcement agency participates in the FBI’s crime reporting program.
Despite the data’s limitations, some criminologists and crime data experts say the data is reliable. Some say the FBI data likely exaggerates the declines, suggesting the decline in violent crime is likely less dramatic but still trending downward.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the accuracy of the data, so it’s consistent but probably exaggerates what the trends are,” Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, a data consulting company that specializes in crime data, told Stateline in an interview. “In theory, everything will become more accurate as the year goes on.”
While national data indicate an overall large decline in crime across the country, some criminologists caution that this is not necessarily the case in individual cities and neighborhoods.
“Things look good for the country as a whole, but even with these big declines, there are cities in the United States that likely experienced increases that bucked the trend,” Charis Kubrin, a professor of criminology, law and society at the University, told me. of California in Irvine, to Stateline.
According to criminologists and crime data experts, the average American’s understanding of crime and crime statistics is deeply distorted by media reporting that focuses on when crimes are committed and misleading political rhetoric.
Instead of relying on statistics, which can feel impersonal, people cling to anecdotes that resonate more emotionally. Politicians take advantage of this, Dan Gardner, author of the book “Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear,” told Stateline.
“If you’re a political activist, it’s very easy to take advantage of the fear of crime,” Gardner said.
Telling a tragic story and framing it in a way that makes voters feel that they or their families could become victims of similar crimes unless they vote for a specific politician is a common, highly effective tactic, he added.
This use of fear as a motivator can drive people to the polls, Gardner said, but it also distorts public perception of crime.
“It’s a poor way to understand the realities of personal safety and society, but it’s a very attractive form of marketing,” Gardner said.
The Council on Criminal Justice, an independent think tank, published a report this month urging police and the federal government to provide more timely crime data. The report notes that crime data, particularly national data, often lags by up to a year, hampering public understanding of crime trends and limiting officials’ ability to make informed policy decisions to proactively address public safety issues.
“We need to accelerate improvements in our services [crime] “The democratization of this data is really critical to more effective policy and programming,” John Roman, a senior fellow and director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, told Stateline. Roman also chairs the Council on Criminal Justice’s Crime Trends Working Group. “The democratization of this data is really critical to more effective policy and programming.”
State border is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. For questions, contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger at info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and X.
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