WASHINGTON — As former President Donald Trump resumes full-time campaigning following his conviction in his New York hush-money case, a relatively small group of Americans who could have decisive influence in November are a top target: moderate and nonpartisan voters reluctant to support grant someone who has been convicted of a crime.
It’s still early, just a week after a jury convicted Trump of falsifying corporate data to influence the 2016 election. But early opinion polls show that the guilty verdict does not change the minds of many. Trump’s conservative Republican base hasn’t abandoned him, and the conviction certainly hasn’t helped the former president among his critics.
But surveys over the past week still show the unprecedented verdict could change enough minds to make a difference in battleground states this fall.
Both Democrats and Republicans have tried to use the process to court moderate voters. Trump, who will campaign in Arizona and Nevada in the coming days, has highlighted his fundraising in response to the verdict and predicted a voter backlash against the case.
“It’s possible that our numbers are better now than they were three weeks ago,” Trump said in an interview on Newsmax on Wednesday.
Yet Democrats, looking at some of the same polls, said the only question is how much the conviction will hurt Trump.
“Outside the MAGA base, we believe that a majority of Americans will not vote for a convicted criminal who is obsessed with regaining power at any cost and getting revenge for his own problems,” said James Singer, spokesman for the MAGA. President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.
But what do crucial voters actually think about Trump being found guilty of 34 crimes in New York? Here’s what you need to know.
Searching the early polls
So far, the numbers don’t show much change after the verdict in a close race between Biden and Trump — but even a small number could make a big difference in the swing states that will decide the Electoral College.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday found that “ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Trump” after his conviction. “Among independent registered voters,” the poll said, “25% said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely” to support Trump.
Overall, the Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Biden a lead of 41%-39%, well within the survey’s margin of error.
A HarrisX poll after Thursday’s verdict found that undecided voters “still split 50/50 between Biden and Trump, despite saying Trump is guilty.”
An analysis by 538/ABC News also reported that “the verdict also does not appear to have changed many people’s views on the case.” However, it added that “the verdict has made a small but significant portion of potential Trump supporters less likely to vote for him.”
That’s not all. The New York Times reported Thursday that it had contacted 2,000 voters who had participated in an earlier poll it conducted with Siena College, and that Biden made small gains after Trump’s conviction. The newspaper found that the group of voters supported Trump by three points when they were interviewed in April and May, but that fell to one point this week.
Even a small number could make a difference in seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. As the Pew Research Center reports, Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points and Wisconsin by six-tenths of a percentage point in 2020.
Trump returns to the track full-time
Arizona and Nevada are on Trump’s schedule for the end of the week as he resumes his full-time campaign. These stops mark his first extended campaign trip since the jury’s verdict last week.
On Thursday, the former president will headline a town hall in North Phoenix organized by Turning Point Action, an Arizona-based conservative group. Trump also has a series of fundraisers in California later this week, with stops planned for San Francisco, Beverly Hills and Newport Beach.
The trip concludes on Sunday with Trump’s first meeting after the verdict in Las Vegas.
The former president is expected to return to a familiar tactic as he addresses voters: trying to appeal to supporters by expanding on his long-standing argument that the hush money trial was unfair.
Trump has long said without evidence that judges and prosecutors are using his four sets of criminal charges to target his re-election campaign. It’s a claim the former president made in the hours and days before and after his guilty plea.
But it’s not clear whether this motivates the crucial independent voters who could decide the 2024 election.
Republicans are trying to mobilize undecided voters
Trump is not just trying to convince undecided voters concerned about the hush money case with campaign stops. They are also the target of a new GOP program that emphasizes early voting, including voting by mail.
The Trump campaign and an organization called Trump Force 47 — part of the Republican National Committee — announced what they called “Swamp The Vote USA,” focusing on early voting across the country.
“Whether you vote absentee, by mail, in person or on Election Day, we are going to protect the vote,” Trump said in a statement announcing the program.
It is a pivot from Trump’s previous presidential campaigns. Republicans developed the early election plan despite Trump’s frequent calls to return to one-day voting with paper ballots.
The former president and his aides have been particularly critical of mail-in voting for years, including launching RNC-backed lawsuits in several states to try to curb the practice in this year’s election.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump seeks to court crucial 2024 voters after guilty verdict
