(Bloomberg) — The dollar weakened as the latest set of U.S. election data showed no clear advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Oil rose after OPEC+ postponed a production increase.
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The greenback fell in early trading against the yen, pound, euro, Mexican peso, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, after strengthening on Friday as government bond yields rose.
Shares in Australia rose, while Hong Kong share contracts were slightly lower. U.S. stock futures were steady after rising on Friday on robust gains from companies including Amazon.com and Intel Corp. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, meaning there will be no government bond trading during Asian hours.
The weakening of the dollar was a sign to some that investors might lose confidence in a victory for Donald Trump. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher government bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.
“To the extent that there was anything going on with the ‘Trump trading’ last week, it’s backing off a bit this morning,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.
Wall Street tried not to read too much into the jobs data on Friday, which showed US employment rose at the slowest pace since 2020 in October, while the unemployment rate remained low. The figures were distorted by major hurricanes and a major strike. The jobs report is the last major data point before the election.
Polls showed Sunday that Harris and Trump are poised for a photo finish, with voters closely divided both nationally and across the crucial swing states that will decide the election. A Des Moines Register poll showed Harris with a 47% to 44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his previous elections. This was likely an outlier, but suggested the vice president could reach white voters in the Midwest.
In Australia, Westpac Banking Corp. its share buybacks to A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) and reported higher-than-expected profits. Stocks headed lower.
Oil, gold
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, rose more than 1% early Monday, extending its streak of daily gains to four. OPEC+ agreed to push back output growth by a month in December, marking the second delay in its plans to revive supply as prices continue to struggle amid a fragile economic outlook.
The gold price remained stable at around $2,734 per ounce. The price of the precious metal has fallen over the previous two trading sessions after hitting a record high last week.
The dataset to be released in Asia on Monday includes HSBC PMI manufacturing figures for India and a rate decision in Pakistan.
In China, officials unveiled moves to attract foreign money just days before the U.S. election, raising concerns about the impact on the world’s second-largest economy of a return of Donald Trump to the White House. Foreign individuals are now allowed to provide capital to listed companies as strategic investors, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and four other regulators said in a statement late Friday.
Elsewhere in China, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will meet in Beijing from Monday to Friday as investors look for some approval of fiscal stimulus to revive the slowing economy.
Main events this week:
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
US factory orders, Monday
HCOB Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Monday
China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will meet Monday through November 8
