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Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sink as tensions between Russia and Ukraine fuel flight to ports

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Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sink as tensions between Russia and Ukraine fuel flight to ports

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday as concerns about a nuclear escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine roiled markets, taking attention away from Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings and other corporate results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures () fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 futures () fell about 0.4%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 () fell 0.3% after a mixed day for the major gauges.

Stocks are retreating as investors assess news that President Vladimir Putin has signed a revised nuclear doctrine that allows Russia to expand its use of nuclear weapons. The changes mean any large-scale airstrike could trigger a nuclear response, and come just days after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to invade Russia.

US bond prices rose along with gains for the yen (JPY=X), gold (GC=F) and other safe-haven assets as risky trading took off. Treasury yields – which move inversely to bond prices – fell, with the 10-year benchmark yield (^TNX) down 5 basis points to around 4.37%. Gold rose almost 1% to around $2,639 an ounce.

The geopolitical situation has sidelined issues such as corporate profits, President-elect Trump’s cabinet choices, interest rate movements and Wall Street’s view on stock prices.

Walmart (WMT) and Lowe’s (LOW) are lining up to post quarterly reports before the bell. Investors will be watching the results of the major retailers for indications that consumers are under pressure, which could reflect the tension in the economy.

Meanwhile, the countdown to Nvidia’s earnings began on Wednesday, seen as a test of the AI ​​trading that has fueled gains on Wall Street. The chipmaker’s shares headed higher in premarket trading after being bruised by a report of overheating problems with its flagship new AI product.

Goldman Sachs strategists said they expect the outperformance of Nvidia and its “Magnificent Seven” tech megacap peers to decline next year, in an S&P 500 (^GSPC) forecast that includes a target of 6,500 applies.

LIVE 3 updates
  • Walmart’s e-commerce business is still on fire

    Walmart (WMT) has worked very hard behind the scenes over the past two years to become a major player online. The company has expanded its range online and, among other things, refined the functionalities for online purchasing and collection in the store.

    The efforts remain visible on the winning days.

    Here are the company’s e-commerce results by division for the third quarter, reported this morning:

    These results are striking for two reasons: 1) Walmart isn’t exactly a startup; 2) competition online is as fierce as ever.

    I’ll be speaking live with Walmart CFO John David Rainey on Yahoo Finance at 9:15 AM. Don’t worry, we’ll ask him about these online sales figures!

  • How Goldman sees the Mag 7 transaction happening in 2025

    Hat tip to Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin for mentioning specific stocks that just fell in his piece on the 2025 outlook.

    So often, these year-end works of art from investment bank strategists simply serve the S&P 500’s objectives, explaining various underlying scenarios. But usually not stock predictions.

    Kostin expects another year of strong performance for the Mag 7 business, just not as popular as in recent years.

    Kostin says:

    “The ‘Magnificent 7’ Stocks (Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta(META), Microsoft(MSFT), Nvidia(NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA)) will collectively outperform the S&P 493 in 2025, but by roughly 7 percentage points, the smallest margin in seven years, and down from 63 percentage points in 2023 and 22 percentage points year to date. A reduction in relative earnings per share growth will cause the performance gap to narrow.”

    This is a good point by Kostin and contradicts all these Mag 7 stocks that are trading at rich prices and have good prospects for earnings growth. There’s only so far you can push a stock price based on reasonable future financial assumptions!

    You can shop around for Mag 7 valuations on Yahoo Finance’s new stock comparison tool here.

  • If there’s one thing that could trip up Nvidia

    As I noted in our blog on Monday, expectations for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings and prospects are very robust, to say the least.

    If there’s one thing that could derail bullish trading the morning after earnings reports, it’s Nvidia’s guidance. While it will likely be above consensus, it may not be above consensus enough given the dynamics surrounding demand for Blackwell chips. Nvidia could choose to go stronger with guidance when it reports in about three months.

    Important point about this from Stifel analyst Ruben Roy in a note this morning:

    “While expectations are high and our scenario appears to be widely anticipated (consensus estimates for the 2026/2027 financial year are up around +4% over the past two weeks), our conversations suggest that a Blackwell-induced reversal to upside more likely an event in the April quarter than January.”

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