October was the hottest month on record in Las Vegas, according to data from the National Weather Service. Las Vegas also hasn’t had any measurable rain in more than 160 days. (Photo by Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images)
As Nevada heads into the winter months, the state’s water reserves will depend largely on the amount of precipitation and snowmelt that will hit the state in the coming months.
The water level in Lake Mead, the largest water source for Southern Nevada, is nearing its limit 18 meters higher this fall than two years ago, when the lake hit a low point. This improvement is partly due to robustness conservation efforts, mandatory cutsand two consecutive above average winters.
While Lake Mead is in better shape, it is still at its second-lowest point in the past five years, meaning the state will need another wet winter to shore up water reserves.
While it is still too early to say whether snow water rates will be above normal or not, there are some positive signs.
As of mid-December, the snowpack of the Upper Colorado Basin – a major water source for Lake Mead – is 89% of median. Precipitation in the Upper Colorado Basin is expected to remain above normal in January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Snowwater amounts in northern Nevada and the eastern Sierra, a major water source for Lake Tahoe, are above normal and range from 106% to 157% of average for this time of year.
Wetter conditions in the Sierra Nevadas are also likely to persist in the near term, as a major storm system over Northern California was expected to deposit 2 to 8 inches of precipitation, according to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
However, there are still three winter months ahead of Nevada’s water year, meaning current snowwater amounts for most basins represent only 25-30% of average peak spring amounts. That leaves a lot of room for improvement or deterioration of conditions.
Another potential weather event that could impact snowpacks in the West this winter is La Niña, a weather phenomenon that often leads to less precipitation and warmer temperatures in the southern part of the US, including Nevada and parts of the Colorado Basin. The weather pattern could also lead to more snowfall in other parts of the western U.S., especially the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña warning in December, meaning conditions are favorable for La Niña to develop over the next six months. However, it is expected to be weak, which would likely have a less dramatic impact on the weather. According to Scott Handel, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, neutral weather conditions should return in the spring.
“We are knocking on the door of a weak La Nina,” Handel said at a press conference in December. “As we look to the future, the most likely scenario as we enter winter is the emergence of La Nina.”
“There is a greater than 70% chance that La Nina will occur during the period December, January and February. The chance of a strong La Nina is extremely low, with a near zero chance this winter,” he continued.
Drought conditions in southern Nevada have increased since September due to drier than normal conditions and abnormally high fall temperatures. October was the hottest month on record in Las Vegas, according to data from the National Weather Service. Las Vegas also hasn’t had any measurable rain in more than 160 days.
Spring Mountains, the largest source of groundwater recharge for southern Nevada, is still waiting for snow to accumulate. The lack of snow on the mountain range at this time of year is a significant anomaly compared to historical records.
The drought in southern Nevada is expected to last at least until spring next year, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures across most of Nevada are expected to remain above average in January, according to NOAA.
Nationally, 2024 saw the warmest fall on record, with nearly 39% of the contiguous US in drought.
“It is almost certain, with one month left in the year, that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” Karin Gleason, chief of the Monitoring Division for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, said at a news conference in December.
