Election night updates and implications

Many people on the streets I have spoken to this week are preparing for a big move in the markets on Wednesday morning as the winner of the election is expected to be announced later tonight. Furthermore, any winner would be seen as a surprise to the markets (weird how investors view these things). Take that with a grain of salt, because groupthink could affect us not get a big move in the markets on Wednesday.

Amid the action, I kept a close eye on bond yields, as the markets could very well be moving away from them based on my conversations. It’s a point the Goldman Sachs team made today in a note making the rounds this evening:

“The upcoming US election could put further upward pressure on global bond yields and cause indigestion for equities,” said Goldman Sachs strategist Andrea Ferrario.

Ferrario added: “Rising bond yields could ultimately become a speed limit for stocks if real interest rates start to rise (relative to real GDP growth expectations) or if the rise in bond yields is too rapid.”

Futures moved solidly into the green on Tuesday evening as the first results of the US presidential election poured in, while cryptocurrencies soared and the US dollar also gained.

By 8 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were up about 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) rose about 0.7%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) also rose as much as 4.5% to trade above $71,000. The dollar was also stronger against most major currency pairs, including the yen and euro.

So far, Trump has won Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee and Indiana, while Harris has claimed Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland and Massachusetts, according to the Associated Press.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) rose more than 20% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after early votes showed Trump capturing Kentucky and Indiana.

The stock had a wild session during market hours after trading was halted several times due to volatility. Shares recovered somewhat from steeper losses, but still closed down just over 1%.

Shortly after the market closed, DJT reported third-quarter results showing a net loss of $19.25 million for the quarter ended September 30. The company also reported revenue of $1.01 million, down slightly year-over-year from the company’s $1.07 million. reported in the third quarter of 2023.

Read more here.

via Colin Campbell of Yahoo News:

Democrats have a 51-49 lead in the Senate. To retain the majority in the House, Democrats will need 51 seats if Donald Trump wins, or 50 seats if Kamala Harris is the winner. This will be a difficult path for Democrats, because key Senate races are largely being fought in Republican-friendly territory, and the national party has already conceded retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat.

These are the races most observers are following:

Arizona: Representative Ruben Gallego (D) vs. former TV host Kari Lake (R)
Florida: Senator Rick Scott (R) vs. Former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
Maryland: Former Governor Larry Hogan (R) vs. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D)
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R)
Missouri: Senator Josh Hawley (R) vs. Marine veteran Lucas Kunce (D)
Montana: Senator Jon Tester (D) vs. Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy (R)
Nebraska: Senator Deb Fischer (R) vs. Union Leader Dan Osborn (I)
Nevada: Senator Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Army Veteran Sam Brown (R)
Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown (D) vs. businessman Bernie Moreno (R)
Pennsylvania: Senator Bob Casey (D) vs. businessman Dave McCormick (R)
Texas: Senator Ted Cruz (R) vs. Representative Colin Allred (D)
Wisconsin: Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. businessman Eric Hovde (R)

View the Yahoo News live blog >

Tesla ( TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk confirmed Tuesday night that he will spend election night with Donald Trump when the results come in.

“I’m going to Florida,” he said early Tuesday evening during a livestream on X, formerly Twitter. “I’ll just be there with President Trump and JD [Vance] and a lot of other cool people,” he added. The comment confirmed an earlier report from the New York Times that Musk would leave for Florida tonight.

It’s the latest example of Musk’s extremely close ties to Trump in the final stages of the campaign, after the world’s richest man spent more than $130 million aiming to return former President Trump to power.

At a recent closely watched rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, Musk was the last speaker before Trump’s wife, Melania, took the stage.

Other prominent figures close to Trump will be elsewhere Tuesday evening, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who will spend at least the first part of the evening in his home state of Louisiana.

Musk also added Tuesday evening that he had just voted for himself in South Texas, where his company SpaceX has a branch.

The next set of states have officially closed their polls: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Virginia, among a slew of others.

The remaining states will close in the coming hours. All polls will close at 11:00 PM ET.

I am not an election forecaster, but I will make a 2024 election call based on polls and my own intuition. Because I’m putting this out there for everyone to see, my fans can praise me – or my trolls can call me out – whether I’m right or wrong.

Yes, I could be wrong, and if so, I’ll admit it tomorrow (or whenever we know).

While you wait for the results, take a break from reloading those ever-changing betting markets and take a look at the stakes.

Yahoo Finance spent the final days of the 2024 campaign examining four key economic decisions that the next president, whether he or she likes it or not, will face in his or her first two years in office. Here’s more about the issues that will take center stage next year, regardless of who wins.

For an even deeper look at all the financial issues most important to your wallet, check out Yahoo Finance’s interactive guide to the 2024 elections.

Exit polls released Tuesday afternoon by NBC News, Fox News, CNN and other TV networks highlight some of the most important issues for voters.

via Bloomberg: “About 35% of voters – including large numbers of both men and women – said democracy was their most important issue and 31% said the economy, while 14% chose abortion. Immigration was the most important issue for 11% of voters. Abortion was the most important issue for 19% of women, compared to only 8% of men. Only 4% of voters said foreign policy was their top concern.

Our job at Yahoo Finance tonight is to track the market implications of election developments, not parse election results at the county level and draw maps and circles on walls of Pennsylvania and Georgia. But I have one feed on X, formerly Twitter, with some experts on election results, for anyone who wants to dive deep into the districts tonight. Anyone can follow that feed for a sharp analysis of what early returns are telling us. Just click the link above and follow my list, which I’ve cleverly named “Election Night.”

I noticed that political analyst Louis Jacobson also put together an election night list. Click on that link to follow it. Lou does great work as a contributor to PolitiFact and many other media outlets. Definitely a good guy to follow, in his own right.

If there’s anything you’d like to discuss in this blog tonight, tag us: @YahooFinance, @rickjnewman, @benwerschkul, and @allie_canal. We offer personal service, wherever possible!

US stock futures held steady as the first states closed their polls ahead of Election Day.

By 6 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were up about 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were also up about 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) rose about 0.2% after a winning day for stocks.