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Elon Musk has increased his power as a political influencer in recent years.
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Whoever wins the White House could have a drastic impact on the billionaire’s businesses.
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A political strategist told BI that Musk should “be careful” about what he wishes for in the next election.
In recent years, Elon Musk seems to have gone from mildly flirting with politics to a full-blown love affair with increasing his influence in Washington.
As the presidential election approaches and the billionaire businessman continues to tease the idea of a Trump endorsement, it’s becoming clear that Musk has a lot at stake depending on who the country’s next leader will be.
Although Musk has not publicly endorsed any candidate, Business Insider previously reported that he bonded with fellow billionaires over a shared distrust of Democrats and privately discussed how best to defeat them in this year’s election.
According to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, Musk has also spoken to the Trump campaign about taking on a possible advisory role if the former president returns to the White House.
A Trump campaign representative declined to comment on The Journal’s report but acknowledged that Silicon Valley elites like Musk are lining up to support Trump’s re-election campaign.
“It has been widely reported and demonstrated in a number of ways that many of the country’s key technology and innovation leaders are concerned about the damage being done to their industries by Biden‘s inability to handle our economy and its attempts to overburden innovators with government bureaucracy and brutal regulation,” Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told BI in a statement.
As Musk continues to expand his political power, whoever wins the White House could have a drastic impact on the billionaire and his companies. Here’s how things could play out for Musk under a second Trump administration versus a Biden victory.
Elon under Trump
Musk previously served on business advisory groups under Trump’s first administration, but withdrew from the role amid disagreements over Trump’s 2017 decision to leave the Paris climate accord.
If he were to take a more formal role in a hypothetical second Trump term, Musk would be taking a gamble on what would be best for his numerous multibillion-dollar companies, Bradley Tusk told BI.
Tusk is a venture capitalist and political strategist whose consulting firm advises startups in highly regulated industries. If he were to advise Musk now, Tusk said he would tell him, “You have to be very careful what you wish for — for a number of reasons.”
Under Trump, Tusk said tax cuts and deregulation could lead to a boom for Tesla, This could also come with a huge increase in political cache, but possibly reduced stability in the markets that Musk relies on to maintain his wealth and power.
“There is the potential to really have a tremendous amount of influence within the Trump administration,” Stacey Lee, professor of law and ethics at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, told BI. “And if you look at the characteristics of what Trump really respects — he’s popular, he has a management style that’s more unique in his voice — these are all things that Trump really admires, and that includes Musk.”
“In that respect,” she said, “they may be rather strange kindred spirits.”
Elon under Biden
In a world where Biden is re-elected, Musk may not have the influence he seems to desire, but Tusk said he would have something that markets and companies rely on for strong growth: stability.
“Musk just got a $55 billion pay package approved under Joe Biden as president — right now his life is pretty good,” Tusk said. “And now we have the choice of a president who truly believes in clean energy and one who actively despises it. So for those Tesla shareholders, it’s a lot better for them if Joe Biden is president. And they just gave Elon $55 billion to do it. what’s best for the company.”
However, Lee told BI that a second Biden administration would also be prone to more regulation and pro-union policies, neither of which are very attractive to Musk as a businessman.
“Biden is very traditional in his policies. He is committed to raising corporate taxes,” Lee said. “Under Trump we saw them go from 35% to 21%, and now Trump says, ‘Hey, if I come in, I’m going to take it down to 20.’ I think that will be music to Musk’s ears.'”
A second Trump term could backfire for Musk
“My first instinct — I think everyone’s — would be, ‘Oh, sure, it would be better for Musk under Trump.’ But I think in the end it would be much worse,” Tusk said.
While Musk may be tempted by the allure of amassing even more power, Tusk said it’s a double-edged sword with Trump.
Tusk said Biden doesn’t consider Elon a rival — he probably doesn’t think about him at all. But for Trump, as has happened with so many of his former allies, his affection for Musk could suddenly change, making the Tesla CEO a target for his ire.
“On Trump’s side, Musk needs to be careful and not rush into this headlong. As tempting as it may seem, it ends badly for almost everyone,” Tusk said. “And all the things he values, the things that make him happy – the attention and relevance – are the same things that make Trump happy.”
“And the only man you can’t win a war against is the president of the United States,” he added.
Campaign representatives for Musk and Biden did not respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.
Read the original article on Business Insider
