ESPN analytics low on big Bears improvements, playoff chances. Inside the Figures originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
On paper, the Bears are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year. However, ESPN Analytics doesn’t expect those improvements to translate into significantly more wins in 2024.
ESPN shared on NFL Live that their analytics believe the Bears will win 8.5 games next year — which is just one or two wins better than last year’s 7-10 record. Furthermore, their analytics only give the Bears a 42% chance of making the playoffs.
However, former NFL safety and front office exec Louis Riddick believes the Bears will exceed analytical projections.
“This is a team that can make drastic, drastic improvements,” Riddick said on NFL Live. “Could this be a team that stands up and surprises people? Yes, it could be, because person by person, if you look at it on a piece of paper or on a computer screen, they have weapons that can match anyone, especially offensively, and they have an offensive line that is very underrated.”
The key for the Bears to outperform ESPN Analytics’ projection, according to Riddick, is the relationship between rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
“Can Shane allow Caleb to control things on the football field to the extent that Caleb can consistently make good decisions, not lose the ball, not put the ball in jeopardy and not turn every play into an improvisational play, which he knows he’s great at and which he knows he can’t get away with in the NFL?”
One of the main reasons ESPN analytics are low on the Bears’ playoff chances is because the NFC North has seemingly become one of the most competitive in the NFL. The Lions came within a few plays of making the playoffs last year; the Packers won a playoff game with Jordan Love as the team’s starting quarterback; the Vikings have one of the best receiving duos in the league in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison; and one of the most creative defensive coordinators in Brian Flores.
Riddick believes the Bears do well against all three, but of course it’s only June.
“We know the games aren’t played on paper. I think that’s why the North, I think, is the division to watch this year. Young quarterbacks, a lot of offensive firepower, young perimeter players everywhere. It’s going to be fun.”
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