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Ewers vs. Manning: How close is a quarterback controversy in Texas?

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Ewers vs. Manning: How close is a quarterback controversy in Texas?

The four most notable individuals in Texas at any given time are:

With all due respect to Governor Greg Abbott, most of us need a little break from talking politics these days. And considering that opinions on all things Cowboys are firmly in the “everything sucks” camp, the Texas signal caller remains the center of the state’s glowing spotlight at the moment.

Quinn Ewers has been on stage for years, but his understudy makes his way out of the wings… and the audience sees it. How long before the clamor for Arch Manning becomes too loud for Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian to ignore? Is Ewers’ status a microcosm of Texas as a whole — much touted in the preseason, but exposed as less than stellar once the games started?

Let’s start with the facts. Texas is 9-1 and in pole position for an SEC regular-season title, a conference championship berth and a CFP first-round bye. That in itself is reason enough for Sark to keep dancing with the date that got him to this point.

However, it is also a fact that Ewers has not produced the kind of season that is expected of him. Before Week 0, BetMGM had Ewers at +1000 for the Heisman, third-best behind Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck. He’s now at +25,000, and it’s pretty safe to say Ewers bettors won’t be cashing in on that ticket.

Ewers has also seen his NFL Draft stock plummet; Due to the mock drafts of early 2025, he fell out of the first round. “A solid overall package, but never really reached a spectacular level or showed that he can create anything consistently,” Yahoo’s Charles Robinson said last week. “There are concerns about his consistency in dealing with injuries throughout his career.”

That is the future. What about the present? According to Pro Football Focus, Ewers has a 68.2 out of 100 rating through eight games. (For comparison, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart all score better than 90.0.)

Ewers’ most visible and glaring flaw is his difficulty throwing in the field, and this is a case where the eye test matches the numbers. Throughout the season, Ewers has just seven “Big Time Throws” – defined by PFF as passes “with excellent ball location and timing, typically thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Ward has 24 such throws; Sanders, 22.

Quinn Ewers (3) has a 7-1 record this season, but that doesn’t stop backup Arch Manning from taking over as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Ewers’ average depth of target – the distance downfield from his intended receiver – is 6.7 meters. Of the 97 quarterbacks this year with at least 250 dropbacks, Ewers ranks 97th.

That inaccuracy was evident Saturday against Arkansas, when Ewers failed to locate or connect with receivers downfield on multiple occasions…hence the grumbling in the stands. Texas can get away with that kind of inaccuracy against the Razorbacks, and probably against Kentucky this week. But against Texas A&M in the regular season finale? Against an SEC hustler in the conference championship? Against a member of the 12-team CFP field? That’s a dangerous gamble.

The backup quarterback is perhaps the most beneficial occupation in Texas; you are not judged on your performance, but on the most optimistic view of your potential. At this point, Arch Manning is a future two-time Heisman winner who will win more Super Bowl trophies than his uncles combined. He also ranks at a 90.1 with exactly 100 dropbacks on the season.

Sarkisian and Ewers have both managed to keep the quarterback controversy in check by sidestepping any attempt to criticize or downplay Ewers’ role. When asked earlier this week if they had any thoughts about this weekend potentially being Ewers’ home final, they were both quick to respond.

“No idea,” Sarkisian said.

“Who knows?” said Ewers. “I’m just trying to win, I’m trying to win this week.”

Both answers left a thread of uncertainty hanging over Ewers and his future — Ewers still has one year of eligibility remaining — and that was enough to spark another round of what-if fear-mongering on social media to take. Would Ewers come back for another year? Would he be QB1 if he did? Could the most notable Texas player in a generation actually enter the transfer portal? (The answer to all three of these questions – or at least 1 and 3 – is almost certainly “no.”)

So there’s a lot to think about as Texas concludes its regular season. It’s tempting to say that Ewers could silence all the criticism with wins, but he’s been winning all season and the complaints haven’t diminished. It might take a January trophy to make Texas fans happy, nothing less.

Good luck, Quinn Ewers. In the next two to seven matches you will need everything.

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