Donald Trump’s victory has made January 6 boring again.
Four years after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory, Republicans and Democrats appear to agree that they will give Trump the smooth, drama-free transition of power he promised the Democrats in 2020 denied.
That’s despite the fact that many Democrats view Trump as an insurgent, ineligible to run for president because of his role in creating the circumstances that led to the attack four years earlier. Instead, top Democrats say they have no plans to stand in the way of Trump’s victory — and they aren’t even sure their rank-and-file colleagues will raise the token objections they’ve raised in recent years.
They also expect Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the joint session of Congress to count Trump’s presidential electors, just as her predecessors did, without taking an active role in the proceedings and the results certified by the states to count. The result: a quick and simple transfer of power that will culminate on January 20, when Trump takes the oath of office.
“I think you’re going to have a fairly normal transmission, and I think we’re going to respect the wishes of the American people … unlike what happened on January 6, 2021,” said Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House of Representatives committee charged with overseeing elections. “I feel like it’s worth saying that over and over again.”
There is one potential crisis, which can be attributed to Trump’s own party and the new president himself. After a spending fiasco last week, conservatives have expressed doubts that Mike Johnson should still be chairman, and Trump has made no effort to defend him. That vote in the House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, and a protracted battle could delay the certification of Trump’s victory. Congress cannot do anything else until it elects a president.
Here’s a look at how the final stages of the presidential transition will play out once the new Congress convenes next month.
Before January 6
Before Congress meets to count the electoral votes, lawmakers must answer two crucial questions. The first: who will become Speaker of the House of Representatives?
When the new Congress convenes on January 3, their first task will be to select a speaker, who can then swear in the other members and preside over the adoption of rules for the chamber’s governance. Until last week, Johnson appeared on target to win a full term, consolidating support from his fractious conference, winning over opponents and securing votes for what he hopes will be his first full term of office. But his stewardship of spending negotiations and an initial deal with Democrats sparked a conservative revolt, with some openly calling for a new chairman. Trump also publicly made veiled threats about Johnson’s future as speaker.
If Democrats, as expected, unanimously back leader Hakeem Jeffries, and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) sticks to his pledge not to return to Congress, Johnson can afford only one Republican vote against him to have. That’s suddenly a realistic possibility: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already pledged to oppose him, and several others are noncommittal.
A battle for the presidency could last days, creating uncertainty about the House’s ability to count the Electoral College votes. And there is no roadmap for what to do if a protracted battle overshadows January 6.
That leads to the second question: Can Congress change the date of the joint session? Lawmakers have the power to pass a law changing the date from January 6 – and there is precedent for this in modern history. The departments could, of course, postpone the session for a few days to give the House breathing room to resolve a speakers battle.
Assuming the presidency is resolved, the House and Senate must agree on procedures for the joint session of Congress. Uncontested for more than 100 years, Congress has passed rules governing the legislative branch, including the Electoral Count Act, a statute that has governed the joint session since 1887. Even in 2020, when Trump challenged the outcome of the election, Congress unanimously passed this resolution.
However, the battle that emerged in 2020 showed that some Republican lawmakers have doubts about the laws governing the transition of power. And Johnson himself has yet to clarify his own views on the Electoral Count Act — especially since Biden signed significant changes to it in 2022.
While Republicans are unlikely to want to stoke uncertainty given that their man is about to take the oath of office, a fight over the Electoral Count Act could still arise on January 3.
Democratic objections
Republicans like to point out that Democrats have raised objections to presidential elections in every race Republicans have won since 2000. However, Democrats have largely viewed these objections as symbolic, without any support from national leaders or party organizations.
This time, there may not even be a token objection to Trump’s victory. POLITICO spoke to the group of Democrats who challenged some Trump voters in 2017, and none said they planned to make a similar effort this time. They acknowledged that their votes in 2017 were symbolic statements that they did not expect to succeed, and said the events of the past four years underscored the need to show confidence in the transition of power.
“I don’t plan to do that again because I don’t think people make distinctions,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). She added: “I think there was a clear difference between what we did and what he does.”
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who also filed an objection in 2017, said he hadn’t heard of any Democrats planning to object this time and predicted Democrats would be “constitutional patriots.”
“I’ve actually never heard of anyone planning to vote no,” Morelle added, “and I would certainly discourage it.”
And if Democrats questioned Trump’s electoral votes, the updated Electoral Count Act made it significantly harder to force their colleagues to consider them.
In each previous joint session, it took objections from only one House member and one senator to trigger a lengthy debate and vote. But the revised law now requires 20 percent of each chamber — 87 members of the House of Representatives and 20 senators — to sign a subpoena before it leads to further proceedings. It’s hard to imagine any potential challenge approaching that threshold in 2025.
Kamala Harris is chairman
Harris will preside over the certification of her own defeat – a moment that is at once awkward and a tribute to the peaceful transfer of power. She is the third losing candidate in recent history to do so.
The vice president, who presides over the Senate, is constitutionally required to serve in this role, with limited exceptions. In 2000, Al Gore brushed aside Democrats’ protests to recognize George W. Bush as the victor. In 2016, Biden told a handful of objecting Democrats that it’s “over” and ushered in Trump’s first presidency. And in 2020, Mike Pence withstood a crushing pressure campaign from Trump — and a violent riot — and followed in the footsteps of his predecessors.
Trump and a group of fringe lawyers argued that Pence could bypass history and take control of the joint session, deciding which electoral votes should be counted or delaying the session altogether to give states a chance to confirm their certified results to turn back. Pence rejected this approach as unconstitutional and argued that the vice president’s role in the joint session should be largely ceremonial.
While some Trump allies still say the vice president has this authority, no one expects Harris to even remotely entertain the idea — and Democrats have roundly dismissed it as a possibility.
Harris aides have said she plans to carry out her duties as all vice presidents before her have done, partly because it is right and also because it is the law. In fact, lawmakers seem so confident that January 6, 2025 will have no intrigue that they have largely treated it as an afterthought. Gone are the intensive strategy sessions and complicated legal analyzes designed to pressure the vice president to take an active role in the proceedings to overturn the outcome.
Security issues
In 2021, expectations for challenges to the election were high, while expectations for violence at the Capitol were low. This dynamic is reversed this time.
Despite the lack of drama, security agencies — the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, the D.C. Police Department and others — are treating the event on par with the security needs of the Super Bowl. There are already signs around the Capitol of enhanced security measures, including surveillance towers set up in the area.
And while protests are possible, there has been no call from any national leader to come to Washington for the joint session or to challenge the outcome. That lack of organizing energy suggests that the fervor of Trump supporters simply won’t be replicated by Trump’s opponents in 2021.
