Each week during the 2024-2025 NBA season, we’ll dive deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an effort to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction.
[Last week: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle]
Fact or fiction: SGA is the best player left in the NBA Cup
The NBA Cup field still consists of four teams. As much as we respect the talent pool of the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets – and they are good teams (maybe not good for the championship, but “could win the NBA Cup” well) – the question of who is the best player left in the tournament is two names long.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder are the two favorites to win the NBA Cup MVP, according to BetMGM. They also join Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Dončić and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić as favorites to win the regular season MVP award.
Antetokounmpo is an establishment superstar, a two-time MVP, on the hunt for his third. The 30-year-old has been a top-four MVP candidate since the 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. Gilgeous-Alexander, runner-up to Jokić for last year’s MVP, is new to this conversation. To have the discussion at all, comparing Gilgeous-Alexander to Antetokounmpo, is a tribute to the 26-year-old’s rise.
But let’s talk now: who enjoys the superior season?
Traditionally speaking, there is no clear statistical difference between the two.
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Antetokounmpo (22 games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TO), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL
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Gilgeous-Alexander (24 games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TO), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK
The numbers reflect their different styles. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball who wreaks havoc on the perimeter on both sides of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carving knife that cuts into lanes on either side of the floor and serves everyone.
If you want to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounding makes the difference here, as does his length on defense, where it can go unnoticed in the box score, then I agree with you. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-level scoring is just as impactful, and he happens to be the driving force behind both an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per game and an elite defense that forces the most turnovers per game . More about that later.
Speaking of nitpicking, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored or assisted 1,108 points in his team’s first 24 games. Antetokounmpo scored or assisted on 1,076 points. And running them through our points defense stat, Gilgeous-Alexander saved his team 83 points. Antetokounmpo saved his 58.
That’s a total difference of 57 points in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, enough to make an issue of Antetokounmpo’s two rest stops this season. (Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t missed a game yet.)
When it comes to advanced stats, we can argue all day about who leads who in which category.
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Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP
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Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP
For every advanced metric in which Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo, you can find one in which Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. If you ask about my two favorites, Estimated Plus-Minus and Daily Plus-Minus, Gilgeous-Alexander leads both.
In any case, I’m not going to lean on this. What I find interesting is this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a significantly lower usage rate than Antetokounmpo, but significantly more win shares – in fact, the most in the league. What does that say about their teams? And what do their teams say about everyone’s impact?
Everyone understands that the Thunder (19-5) are a better team. They lead a stacked Western Conference by 2.5 games. The Bucks (13-11) are struggling to maintain a guaranteed playoff seed in the weaker Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this season, a margin that would rank second in NBA history behind Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls with 72 wins (13.4). Milwaukee’s net rating (1.1) rose only north of zero in recent weeks as it came off a light schedule.
The Thunder are 11-5 against teams with winning records. The Bucks are 3-8 against teams at .500 or better.
By extension, a comparison this close should show that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are better than Antetokounmpo’s. And I think that’s true for the most part. But we shouldn’t discredit Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who only recently returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a one-time All-Star who has consistently competed for All-Defensive recognition in recent years. AJ Green is a flamethrower. Bobby Portis finished third in the Sixth Man of the Year election last year. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright were praised for their low salaries. Milwaukee lacks leadership talent, even though the company is best recognized for past performance.
Not so in Oklahoma City, where Jalen Williams is only now realizing his All-Star potential, much like Chet Holmgren before a pelvic fracture. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are additions to the All-Defensive caliber. The Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They are rich with developmental success stories across the roster, and they have the draft capital to upgrade wherever and whenever they want.
So it should also follow that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are better without him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are without him. And this is where the wicket gets sticky. According to Cleaning the Glass, Oklahoma City scores 12.9 points per 100 meaningful possessions when the superstar is on the floor. Milwaukee is four points per 100 possessions better when its superstar is on the court.
Antetokounmpo is a champion. Don’t forget. He has a handful of his championship teammates and traded one of his best for Lillard. We can debate the merits of dealing with Jrue Holiday for Lillard, but in terms of pedigree, the Bucks have it in spades. The culture is on shaky ground, with coaches, losers of three straight playoff series, being blamed for injuries. Either way, we know who the Bucks are, languishing around Antetokounmpo unless the rest of this tournament can change their minds.
Conversely, there is no certified future Hall of Famer for Gilgeous-Alexander to share his burden. The Thunder are figuring it out for themselves in real time, and they’re watching him. Case in point: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51% of the Thunder’s points in the clutch this season, as opposed to Antetokounmpo, who has scored 27% of the Bucks’ points when the score is within five points in the final minutes of a game.
We also know who Antetokounmpo is: a battering ram. He scores 79% of his points from within 3 feet or at the free-throw line and prefers the former. Opponents leave him open outside the restricted area, where he shoots 42% on 8.3 attempts per game. That’s 0.86 points per possession. You can build a wall opposite Antetokounmpo. He will find his way through, but you may be able to hold him off long enough to win.
That’s why the Bucks chased Lillard, to even the floor against what Antetokounmpo’s wall had done. What had been a top-five offense under former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has become a mediocre team in two of the past three seasons, including this one, as opposing defenses have solved this conundrum.
I just don’t think you can slow down Gilgeous-Alexander in the same way, at least not yet. If you could do that, Williams wouldn’t be as good. That includes Holmgren or anyone else on the Thunder. Because Gilgeous-Alexander can score from any level, the defense never lets him out. They need to keep him from getting to the rim (where he also shoots 73%) and keep him out of the midrange And respect his 3-point jump shot.
The only way to slow him down is to slow himself down, which he will often do because the game is played at his pace. There isn’t a tactic he can’t solve that doesn’t involve a double team. Both Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will still be in place; it’s just that Gilgeous-Alexander has more places to reach.
Determination: Fact. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best remaining player in the NBA Cup.