Each week during the 2023-2024 NBA season, we’ll dive deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an effort to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction.
[Last week: Joel Embiid and the 76ers are in for a painfully long season]
Fact or fiction: Under the emergence of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again
We’ve heard the story of LeBron James’ “supercomputer brain.” He knows what you’re going to do before you do it, or so the story goes. Except, it seems, if you’re Evan Mobley and you have a new arsenal of moves.
Early in the final quarter of Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell netted a rebound that promptly sent Mobley into transition. James pulled the defensive assignment, casually backing away, as if he hadn’t anticipated his opponent’s next move. Sure enough, as Mobley has done repeatedly to start the season, he rolled to the rim and scored early in the shot clock.
It was the embodiment of everything newly installed head coach Kenny Atkinson preached at the start of his tenure – everything the Cavs did to become the Eastern Conference’s only remaining undefeated.
Play with pace and attack at the rim, especially if you’re Mobley, a 23-year-old Defensive Player of the Year finalist who is only now, in his fourth season, beginning to unleash the wide range of his offensive skills.
Cleveland’s 101.7 possessions per game reflects the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA, and its 59.6 drives per game are the third-highest in the league. The Cavs ranked 24th and 17th in those respective categories last season. Their number of field goals in the first third of a shot clock has also skyrocketed.
Mobley has been the biggest benefactor. The faster pace means more opportunities for everyone, and Mobley uses a quarter of his team’s possessions when he’s on the floor, compared to 20% last season. His drives have doubled to nine per game, and he’s creating more of his own attacks than ever before.
Tristan Thompson simplified it, via The Athletic’s Fred Katz: “This year I have more of a ‘f*** you’ attitude.”
About 70% of Atkinson’s interview focused on, “How are we going to use Evan? How are we going to grow his game?” he told ESPN’s Chris Herring. The results are in, at least in five games, and they are spectacular. Cleveland’s 123.4 points per 100 possessions lead the league – and would represent the best offensive rating in league history if the Cavs can maintain that level of efficiency for a full year.
They can’t. Or won’t. The Boston Celtics recorded the highest effective field goal percentage (57.8%) in history last season. The Cavs own an effective field goal percentage of 62.4%. The difference between them and the current number two (57.5%) is equal to the difference between the second and 18th place teams.
When asked if he expected the offense to get fouled so quickly, Atkinson admitted: “To be honest, I’m a little bit surprised.”
It will drop, hopefully not to the levels of last season when they were in the middle of the pack. They will no longer score 25.2 points per game based on turnovers – the highest mark in the NBA.com database.
But the core principle – make sure you pick up the shots and get up early, even if they don’t have help – is what’s important. They probably can’t continue converting 40% of their 13 pull-up 3s per game as a team. On the other hand, the Celtics attempt nearly twice as many per game, and while they don’t convert them at the same rate, the end result is the same: an elite offense that maximizes its considerable talent.
That hasn’t been easy in Cleveland, where Mobley and Jarrett Allen have crowded space for Mitchell and Darius Garland. If nothing else, put the ball in Mobley’s hands more often – do “what Giannis [Antetokounmpo] does,” as Atkinson has said – forces Mitchell And Garland off the ball and reorients the space within the attack. Putting everyone in a corner also helps. Even when his shot doesn’t draw the defense, Allen’s athleticism — cutting quickly and pressuring the rim when not accounted for — commands respect.
The final piece of that puzzle is Mobley’s three-point shot. He is shooting 50% on 1.6 three-point attempts per game. The competition hasn’t quite caught up with him yet. (He shot 28.6% on 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason.) Convert the league average from distance to higher volume and the defense won’t be able to ignore Mobley on the outside, opening up even more space, with or without ball.
That he’s already one of the NBA’s most efficient, high-usage players is a great opening statement.
It will become more difficult. The defense will build walls to prevent Mobley from penetrating the paint, like they do against Antetokounmpo, and from there it takes practice play. If Mobley can shoot over the wall, what a wrinkle that would be. The more pressure he applies, the more opportunities he has to find Mitchell, Garland and whichever wing deserves the job. They’re all willing to shoot at will in Atkinson’s system or attack closeouts, putting the defense in a rotation that Cleveland’s talent can’t contain.
Will the Cavs continue to outscore their opponents by 20 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Allen and Mobley share the floor? Probably not, considering they essentially played opponents last season, even in double-major lineups. But can they replicate their +8.6 net rating from two seasons ago, when Cleveland had the best point differential in the league? That seems feasible given their improved attacking base.
Because the defense is always there. The Cavaliers are no lower than seventh in that regard in three seasons since pairing Allen and Mobley. They are fourth in the table after five games this year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions – a standard that would have led the league last season.
The question is whether they can find some level of consistency in this hot offensive start. Their first three wins came against Toronto, Detroit and Washington – a trio of lottery-nominated teams.
“It’s a new system, so you learn new things, but now are we willing to continue with the different things that have made us successful… when it’s not that easy?” Mitchell asked, according to Cleveland.com.
Wins over the Knicks and Lakers reinforced that this was no fluke — that their connectivity cannot crumble in the face of more formidable foes. As Atkinson told reporters and Mitchell echoed, “If you’re connected and you’re talented, you can do some big things in this league.”
Consistency is key, especially for Mobley, who won’t turn 24 until June, when he hopes his team is still playing. It doesn’t become a superstar overnight. But the Cavs win every 100 possessions by a margin of 32.7 points when Mobley occupies the center spot, and to stay connected is simpler than to get connected.
So when Mobley drove past James, it may have been more than a manifestation of all that Atkinson has preached. Earlier in the game, Cleveland paid tribute to James’ championship contribution to the city, prompting Mitchell to say, “You want to be next.” Perhaps Mobley was staking his claim to that throne.
Provision: Fact. Under the emergence of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are once again contenders.
