The Atlanta Falcons made the move that was inevitable after the results of their recent five-game stretch left them fighting for their postseason lives. After starting 6-3 with the NFC South in charge, the Falcons have gone on a 1-4 run capped by a win over the Las Vegas Raiders that felt more like a loss on Monday night.
Their big offseason acquisition of quarterback Kirk Cousins started off in a very productive way for the team. But his play changed and he became the biggest obstacle to success for the Falcons in recent games. Just 14 games into a contract with $100 million guaranteed over the first two seasons, the Cousins experiment in Atlanta is over and the team is moving on with rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick in this year’s NFL Draft.
Head coach Raheem Morris announced the move Monday night, saying in a statement, “We have decided that Michael Penix will be the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons.”
Atlanta has had almost two completely separate seasons on the offensive side of the football. During the Falcons’ 6-3 start, they appeared to have a unit that could at least reach the playoffs. According to TruMedia, through the first nine weeks of the season, the Falcons ranked seventh in expected points added (36.47), 10th in success rate (44.7%) and 10th in points per drive (2.33). They did what was expected of them coming into the season: add a veteran quarterback to an offense with young, talented skill players and watch the floor rise.
Since then, Cousins has become a liability and the Falcons have plummeted. As of Week 10, the Falcons rank 24th in expected points added (-27.02), 13th in success rate (43.2%) and 31st in points per drive (1.37). They went from a top-10 offense to one of the worst offenses in the league.
Cousins himself posted strong numbers to start the season, ranking seventh (out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks) in expected points added per dropback (0.15) during those nine weeks when things looked good. Since then, Cousins’ expected points added per dropback (-0.14) has dropped 30th (out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks) and he ranks last in interception percentage (5.7%). Even with the litany of turnovers and costly plays, the Cousins and Falcons have never really dipped below league average in terms of success rate.
The Falcons’ steadfastness in terms of offensive success during the losing streak actually creates the framework to begin explaining what happened to them. They still move the ball fairly well, but have become too limited as an offense as the season has gone on. No team has less play action than the Falcons and Cousins. This season they have scored just three times – understandable for a 36-year-old who has suffered an Achilles injury. However, his physical limitations have become a huge hindrance to this offense. Without play-action, the Falcons don’t have to make any changes on defense and can’t take advantage of one of the best rushing attacks in the league. They just drop back and shoot with no real limitations on the defense, which has become increasingly easier to cover.
That’s an approach that can work if the quarterback actually sees the field well and throws accurately. Cousins is currently doing everything but that and routinely makes costly mistakes for Atlanta. Cousins leads the league in interceptions over the past five games with nine and has fumbled the ball five times in that span. It doesn’t matter how well the Falcons can move the ball if those drives abruptly end in disaster. Conversion rate measures how well they move the ball, expected points measure what happens on those plays – hence Atlanta’s incredibly low numbers when it comes to actually being able to put the ball in the end zone. With how limited the Falcons’ offense has become, it’s not surprising that they are also one of the worst red zone teams, despite players like Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Drake London.
Think about how bad that is win about what the Raiders had to feel to make this move. Atlanta didn’t even make a red zone play against a team that came into the game 2-11. Cousins only accumulated 93 net passing yards and had another brutal interception that should never have been thrown in a million years.
This wasn’t the scenario the Falcons expected when they signed Cousins. The plan was to have him start for a few years with Penix sitting on the bench behind him. Cousins’ recent playing has made his position in the starting lineup untenable and, like most teams that draft a rookie quarterback in the first round, the rookie will play.
Penix will take over a team that is still alive for the playoffs despite its recent blunders. He’ll probably need 3-0 to make that playoff berth a reality.
