GARDINER, NY — A few trees in the Tri-State Area are already showing their true colors, but they’re nothing compared to what’s in store in about a month.
CBS News New York meteorologist Vanessa Murdock gives you a forecast for fall colors, which may be less than beautiful in some places due to an invasive species.
The bright red of the Virginia Creeper grabs your attention. The Flowering Dogwood doesn’t disappoint, with a rich burgundy color in Mohonk Preserve. The transition from green to oh my goodness is underway.
“The brilliance of the orange, yellow and red leaves. Often when you see the sun setting, it glistens off the tree. It’s beautiful,” someone said.
“A warm, cozy, peaceful feeling,” said Brent Penfold of Montgomery, New York.
“It should be a great season to view the fall colors”
On a scale of 1 to 10, Penelope Adler-Colvin, science coordinator at Mohonk Preserve in Gardiner, says the fall color forecast for 2024 is a 6 or 7. How vibrant the colors will be depends on the weather.
“It should be a great season to see fall foliage,” Adler-Colvin said. “We really like warm days and cool nights.”
Cool nights signal trees to go to sleep. Chlorophyll breaks down and reveals true colors.
According to Adler-Colvin, a cooler-than-normal August at Mohonk, combined with many cool nights lately, could lead to an earlier start to the leaf-out season.
Read more: Take a ride through New York’s nature by train, water and air
The average peak in much of the Lower Hudson Valley is mid-October. For much of the Tri-State Area, it is late October through the first week of November.
“I think we’re going to have a great fall. I’m hoping for some rain,” said Douglas Bartocci of Middletown, New York. “It’ll help with the leaves.”
Bartocci, an avid viewer of CBS News New York, knows what he is talking about. Sufficient rain enriches Mother Nature’s autumn spectacle. Monday was nine days without rain, but fortunately some is on the way.
Beware of the spongy moth
A warming climate is making conditions in the Lower Hudson Valley more hospitable to the hungry sponge moth.
The invasive species is a major reason why the Adler-Colvin prediction is only a 6 or 7. Moths can indicate a muted canopy in places where oaks are abundant.
“The sponge moth caterpillars have had a bumper year. They’ve been eating the foliage of deciduous trees, like oaks,” Adler-Colvin said.
There’s good news if you’re heading south. The New York City Parks Departments says, “We do not expect the sponge moth to have a significant impact on fall foliage in New York City this year.”
Vanessa Murdock
