Hoop heads! We’re back with more breakouts as we prepare for fantasy basketball draft season. We talked about breakout guards on Monday, and today we’re talking about the forwards that are going to level up for fantasy managers this season. The list includes a number of players who have already made waves in fantasy, but are on the cusp of becoming All-Stars or even All-NBA. Let’s take a look.
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Jalen Willams, SG/SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Putting J-Dub on this list is cheating a bit. He finished 40th in value per game in category leagues last season. The efficiency is a game-changer for Williams, as he has a ridiculous 53/40/81 shooting split in his first two seasons.
Williams taking over Josh Giddey’s secondary playmaker role also opens up more opportunities for usage, ballhandling and assists. If the playoffs are any indication of what to expect, Williams’ assist potential increases from 7.6 per game in the regular season to 9.6 in the playoffs. J-Dub is also a beast on defense, as he can guard multiple positions and averages over a steal per game.
Williams is poised to produce career-highs in his third year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ADP creep into the late third round as we get closer to draft night. He’s a legitimate candidate to win Most Improved Player.
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks
This time last year, Johnson was on sleeper watch. Now, Johnson is very close to being the “too good to breakout” type of player. Johnson played in just 56 games last year but set career bests in eight categories. I don’t care about the injuries, considering he played in 70 games the year before. Johnson offers fantasy managers a little bit of everything, and his fourth-round ADP matched his top-50 finish last season. He was one of nine forwards/centers who averaged at least 3.5 assists with a usage rate below 20% last season.
Assuming his minutes remain in the mid-to-low 30s and he’s the second option on offense, Johnson’s usage rate will certainly increase, leading to more opportunities to score and create. Johnson covers all the bases, offensively and defensively, so fantasy managers are in for another jump in production in his fourth season.
Franz Wagner, SF/PF, Orlando Magic
All signs point to Orlando Magic winger Franz Wagner as a breakthrough player. The German forward is coming off a strong performance at the Paris Olympics, where he earned an All-Olympic second team nod after averaging 18.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists in the Olympics. He also received a substantial contract extension this offseason, and for good reason.
Wagner increased his scoring, rebounds, assists, free throw attempts, steals and usage percentage per game for the third straight year. His +3.5 estimated plus-minus (EPM) led all Magic starters last season and was 94th percentile among the league, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Like Williams, he didn’t make an All-Star team, but this is the year it happens. Despite Wagner’s recent struggles with his 3-point shooting, he’s made at least 35 percent of his 3s in his first two pro seasons. He’ll find his stroke, and in the meantime, he’ll need to remain super-efficient near the rim (67 percent last season) and likely get more trips to the line, which should help his scoring numbers climb in Year 4. A 23-6-4 line with strong rim players and at least one steal per game is a reasonable step up for Wagner — a durable emerging player who hasn’t finished in the top 70 in his career.
Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors
Now that the Warriors are done with lineup gymnastics with Jonathan Kuminga, he’s ready to make some waves heading into his fourth NBA season. It’s crazy that Kuminga didn’t become a full-time starter until February — especially after averaging 20/6/2 on 59/40/80 shooting splits in January. Kuminga’s talent is undeniable, which is why the Warriors are hesitant to trade him.
He turns 22 in October and still has some raw traits, but he’s coming into his own as a dominant force in the paint. He’s gifted athletically and did a great job of pressuring defenses within 10 feet of the rim last season. On those opportunities, Kuminga made 62 percent of his shots. Extending his range is a work in progress, but he’s attempted at least two 3s per game since entering the league and is shooting a career-best 37 percent in the 2022-23 season.
He’s been in the lab all summer, fine-tuning his handle, gaining confidence with his 3-ball, and “mastering” various offensive and defensive concepts — all the stuff you want to hear. To top it off, Kuminga hasn’t been offered a max extension yet, so there’s some financial incentive to show up this season. The uptick in scoring and rebounding is to be expected, as he’ll see 30+ minutes per night with a usage rate of at least 23-25%. I’d also like to see a jump in stock, as that would free up significant value for a player who’s going in the early ninth round of fantasy drafts.
