Picking the right players and knowing when to avoid the landmines are crucial factors in building a competitive fantasy basketball team. Today’s column focuses on three players who may be attractive but have red flags tied to their draft stock. Whether it’s injury or competition, let’s break down the guards to avoid in fantasy basketball this season.
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Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets
The Blue Arrow signed a lucrative max extension to stay with the Nuggets this season, and while I’m not mad about it, he’s already halfway through the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Yes, Murray battled late-season ankle and calf injuries, but neither the Nuggets nor Murray shed much light on its severity. Murray persevered, and like many, I thought he would be close to 100% by the time the Paris Olympics came around. Spoiler alert: he wasn’t. Murray hasn’t looked like himself, averaging just 6.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.8 dimes in 20.5 minutes per game.
Murray is one of the players I most want to see in training camp because he looked good from the postseason all the way to the Olympics. When healthy, he is one of the best complementary stars in the game. While we know his job is safe, injuries are a recurring theme with Murray and with a fifth-round ADP, I’d usually pass on him for Immanuel Quickley or Jalen Duren.
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Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton has emerged as one of the riskiest players in fantasy basketball. Over the past two seasons, he averaged just 15-5-4 in 25 minutes per night. It’s a no-brainer that he hasn’t been able to see the workload of a typical starter. More concerning is that Middleton underwent surgeries on both ankles this offseason and has not yet been cleared for 5-on-5 activities. Training camp starts Tuesday and while he participates, the Bucks will err on the side of caution and bring Middleton back slowly.
That news is far from ideal in fantasy basketball, as despite his ninth-round ADP, I won’t have the patience to wait for Middleton to be a 30-plus minute type of player again. It seems more likely that he’s not just that guy anymore, and it’s time to look elsewhere. He’s the third option on Milwaukee anyway and a lot of his value comes from his rebounds, assists and efficiency. But if his minutes stay in the mid-20s, it’s a hard sell for me.
CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
McCollum had an underrated fantasy basketball season last year, finishing 38th in nine-category leagues and 58th in points leagues. The problem is not with the player, but with the situation. The Pelicans’ decision to trade for Dejounte Murray was a bit of a head scratcher. Still, my immediate reaction was that the combination of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Murray would undermine McCollum’s usage and potential. McCollum’s seventh-round ADP isn’t bad; I just don’t see how he can maintain a 25% usage rate while sharing the ball with Murray, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson – all high usage players.
I suggested on Good Word with Goodwill that it would be in McCollum’s best interest to get off the bench. I’m sticking with that theory because it’s the best option defensively if the Pelicans want to win. However, I expect a dip in scoring with so much competition around him, and that will be the first time in eleven years that he doesn’t average 20 points per game. You don’t have to fade him, but I prefer other guard options in the seventh round like Cam Thomas or D’Angelo Russell.
