Fantasy Basketball: Jokić vs. Wembanyama — Who Should Be the First Pick?

The choice between Nikola Jokić, the seasoned, must-have MVP with a track record as a fantasy player, and Victor Wembanyama, the exciting new phenom, presents a unique dilemma for fantasy basketball managers with the first pick.

Sure, the choice be able to For some, this may be easy, but others will struggle with the lure of proven success versus exploring untapped potential. There’s ultimately no wrong way to go, but here are some considerations I’d discuss with such an advantageous draft position this season.

The Sitting 1.01: Nikola Jokic

The model of consistency, Jokić has ruled fantasy basketball for nearly half a decade. Here’s a look at his fantasy performances over the past four seasons, during which he’s won three MVPs, a Finals MVP and an NBA Championship.

Data courtesy of Basketball Monster and Hashtag Basketball

When you combine his per-game performance with his unmatched durability (totals), he’s a no-brainer selection at the top of fantasy basketball draft boards. He doesn’t miss games, and fantasy is all about racking up stats. Jokić has more than earned it.

The Joker has 114 triple-doubles since 2019, the most in the NBA in that span. You’ll always see his name among the leaders in rebounds and assists per game, and the only areas where he’s below league average are in turnovers (understood, given his usage) and three-pointers made. And for all the “Jokic doesn’t play defense” haters, he’s averaging 2.2 assists per game since 2019. Stop it.

Then there’s the efficiency. With over 60% of Jokić’s shots coming from inside 3-10 feet and 80% of his field goals coming from the 2-point variety, he takes advantage of mismatches and finds ways to score from closest to the rim. Jokić has shot over 56% from the field over the last four years and has been an 81-82% free throw shooter.

I’ll spare you the trouble of diving into his advanced stats (PER, profit shares, BPM, and VORP), but know that he’s in a class of his own.

He’s in his prime, turning 30 in February, and after winning his third MVP last year, there are few players who can compete with the Serbian legend. He’s one of the easiest players to build a team around and one of the most versatile players in fantasy.

The Challenger: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Are you ready to break the fantasy?

If the answer is yes, draft Wembanyama No. 1. While Jokić offers you the highest, safest floor available, Wembanyama has no ceiling. Here are some numbers to prove that his rookie year is the start of something epic.

• First rookie since Karl-Anthony Towns to finish in the top 12 in per-game and total value in category formats

• Second most fantasy points scored in rookie season (3,260 FPs through Week 24)

• Top 10 finishers in per-game and total value in points formats

• Led the league in total blocks (254) and blocks per game (3.6)

• Led all rookies in points, rebounds and blocks per game

• Led all rookies in total points, rebounds, blocks and steals

• 10th in the NBA in double-doubles (43) and triple-doubles (2)

• Joined Jamaal Tinsley as the only other rookie to record a 5×5 line (minimum five points, rebounds, assists, stls and blks)

• First player since Michael Jordan to record five blocks and five steals in consecutive games

• 1 of 8 rookies in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and three assists per game

• 1 of 6 rookies in NBA history averages at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.5 blocks per game

• The only player to average 21+ points in less than 30 minutes per night last season

• 1 of 9 players in NBA history to average at least 21 points in less than 30 minutes per game

• 1 of 5 players in NBA history with a 30% usage rate in his rookie year

I could find more, but hopefully you get the point. Wemby is more than just an exceptional talent, but now that we’ve gone through some fun stats, let’s get to the point of why he’s the 1.01.

Wemby can’t match Jokić’s efficiency on the court or his assist production, but he’s equal in scoring, rebounding and steals, with two notable outliers: blocks and 3-pointers.

Wembanyama is a contender to lead the league in blocks (by a significant margin). His stock potential puts him in a tier we haven’t seen in fantasy since Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. He could legitimately be a three-point-shooting David Robinson, which is scary AF.

For the uninitiated, the Admiral averaged 21/11/3 with four shares in his career. That’s an honorable mention for his name.

There is a clear advantage to having a player who has proven himself capable of contributing in every statistical category, and that is Wemby. And let’s face it — this is a gameand having a highlight video of your team every night makes the experience even more enjoyable.

I’m not naive about the inherent risks of buying into the Wembanyama hype. Jokić’s durability in an era of load management is important. Availability is sometimes the best asset. Still, Wemby played 71 games in his rookie campaign, and despite being handled with kid gloves for the first half of the season, it was probably best for his long-term health. Being a minute-by-minute beast mitigates some of the risk, because even if his minutes are periodically monitored, you’ll still reap valuable production.

My verdict:

I have Wembanyama in first place, but I understand if you think Jokić is the right move — he definitely is. It’s a win-win.

But money doesn’t pay off, and all indications are that Wembanyama is becoming a cheat code for fantasy basketball.