I mentioned in the Week 3 article that as we get further into the fantasy football season, our make or break options will get spicier. We’re all looking for that magical Jauan Jennings-type start that will take us to victory, and to make those bold starts we have to make tough choices with our traditional starters.
With major injuries piling up and offensive inconsistencies around the league, this week is shaping up to be one where even the most promising matchups can leave fantasy managers frustrated. Which players will take your lineup to the next level or keep you competing for points?
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Odunze is coming off the best performance of his young career, finishing as the WR7 in half PPR with six receptions on 11 targets for 112 receiving yards and one touchdown. Despite all these positives, the question remains: is this a blip, or is Odunze a must-start?
There are a few things we need to contextualize about this dramatic peak in Odunze’s production. Caleb Williams threw the ball 52 times in Week 3 – a volume that is unrealistic to expect every week. The Week 3 game was also against Indianapolis, a defense that has already struggled this season. Additionally, the Bears were without Keenan Allen, and his return will inevitably impact target share. The reality is that we expect more volatility from Odunze in the future.
Will Odunze to make or break your line-up in week 4?
Despite the obvious concerns, Odunze remains a strong flex option in favorable matchups, and that’s really key in this week’s evaluation. Odunze faces the Rams defense that is vulnerable in the air. In particular, we should look at the Rams’ defensive games in Weeks 1 and 3, where opposing WR2s had notable performances: Jameson Williams and Jauan Jennings.
If the trend continues and this matchup favors the WR2 again, Odunze could be in line for another huge performance. Playing Odunze is not without risk. Chicago’s offense remains troubled and Allen’s potential return could impact Odunze’s goals. Still, Odunze has the potential to be a strong contributor to your lineup this week.
JK Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins has risen in the rankings and boasts a top-20 consensus ranking, but Dobbins is a potentially risky play in Week 4 due to the matchup and team circumstances. Justin Herbert is dealing with an injury, which presents a multi-faceted problem for the Chargers.
If Herbert is out or has limitations, the Chargers will have to rely heavily on the ground game, potentially increasing Dobbins’ volume. While volume would favor Dobbins, he would likely suffer in efficiency and goal-line opportunities. To make matters worse, the game is an absolute nightmare against a Kansas City defense that has shut down running backs all season.
Will Dobbins to make or break your line-up in week 4?
Dobbins is a tough task this week. The uncertainty surrounding Herbert makes this one of the more ambiguous start/sit decisions. Dobbins’ history suggests he could be worth the risk, but you have to proceed with caution in such a volatile situation. The Chiefs didn’t let Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson get anything going, holding both to fewer than 50 rushing yards. Dobbins’ production could be a major problem this week.
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Kenneth Walker III & Zach Charbonnet, RBs, Seattle Seahawks
Since we didn’t know Walker’s status at the time this article was published, I’m cheating and stating both Seattle supports.
Starting whoever runs Seattle’s backfield seems like a no-brainer. Seattle’s performance at running back was excellent. In Week 1, Walker had over 100 yards and a rushing touchdown. In Week 2, with Walker out, Charbonnet finished as the RB12 in half PPR. In Week 3, Charbonnet thrived with 18 carries for 91 yards and two rushing touchdowns, finishing as the RB6.
However, this week’s game against Detroit is a big deal. Detroit has been solid across the board, but they have cut running backs completely, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position while facing top fantasy producers like Kyren Williams and James Conner. They only allow 2.76 yards per carry to running backs on average. Honestly, there isn’t a worse fantasy matchup. We are faced with an incredibly difficult situation starting with running backs in an ambiguous health situation with a horrific matchup.
Will Walker and Charbonnet to make or break your line-up in week 4?
I recognize that some of you can’t afford to leave them in, but this could be a no-win scenario due to Walker’s potential return this week. While Walker would be expected to resume the starring role, the Seahawks would likely limit his carries upon his first return. This could lead to a split backfield in the worst possible matchup, making every running back in Seattle a potential bust for the week. Again, with back injuries around the league, you may not have the luxury of benching both players, but if you can, it would be wise to be cautious with these high-risk backs.
Carson Steele, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
With Isaiah Pacheco out, Steele was the Chiefs’ lead back, and the outcome was overall positive as it was the undrafted rookie’s first start. Steele had 17 carries for 72 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
Unfortunately, as expected, he was not involved in the passing game. So despite the healthy number of carries, he had just under eight fantasy points in the half PPR and finished as the RB32. While the fantasy output wasn’t special, there are some positives. Steele outplayed Samaje Perine by a significant margin, and if goal-line opportunities arise, Steele would likely be the favorite for those touches. The snap count alone puts him in the high-end RB3, borderline RB2 territory.
Will Steele to make or break your line-up in week 4?
Kansas City faces the Chargers this week. It’s difficult to fully assess the Chargers’ defense, as their opponents have been the Raiders, the Panthers (Bryce Young’s version) and the Steelers – all restricted offenses. Plus, there’s the possible involvement of Kareem Hunt to consider.
While Hunt isn’t someone I would throw into a fantasy football lineup, his presence could further limit Steele’s lead, which is already limited by the lack of receptions. I’m being extremely cautious about using Steele this week and another output of less than 10 fantasy points is the likely outcome.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland
Ford started the season with decent fantasy output in Week 1 and appeared to be the clear RB1. However, in Week 2, Ford saw a puzzling drop in touches, carrying the ball just seven times for 64 yards, while D’Onta Foreman had 14 carries for 44 yards.
In Week 3, the points returned in Ford’s favor, but again the output was disappointing, with only 8.5 fantasy points in the half PPR. This week, Ford faces a dream matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Will Ford to make or break your line-up in week 4?
On paper, this should be a full go situation for Ford, but the reality is we can’t trust the Cleveland offense. We can’t even be sure that Ford will consistently lead the team in carries. To make matters worse, Ford missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury.
While this matchup seems like the perfect opportunity for Ford to put in some much-needed top performance, there’s a good chance he can deliver another sub-10 fantasy points game. It’s a wild scenario where, despite the favorable matchup, Ford could end up breaking your lineup.
