Remember that paradigm shift that was coming in fantasy football? Draft receivers, they’re safer. And for the love of all that is holy, please avoid older running backs; they’re just too risky.
Throw it all in the shredder, at least before 2024. In this current fantasy landscape, up is down, down is up and dogs and cats are best friends.
Let’s have some fun with the Week 9 running back rankings. Derrick Henry, old man – he’s the RB3 with 25.8 fantasy points and only SNF and MNF left to play. Alvin Kamara, old man – he is ranked RB4 (24.5 points). Saquon Barkley leads the position in scoring (31.4 points) with touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Joe Mixon did his usual thing (over 100 yards, a touchdown, 16.6 points) in the loss to the Jets on Thursday.
Henry is two months away from his 31st birthday. Kamara is 29. Barkley is in his seventh NFL season at 27 years old. It’s season No. 8 for Mixon, 28 years old.
Fantasy analysts generally don’t agree on much, but Henry was almost universally praised and targeted all summer long. The reasons were quite simple: Baltimore always has a strong offensive infrastructure and Lamar Jackson’s rushing presence will open new avenues. And as athletic as Jackson is, he generally doesn’t steal too many of the rushing touchdowns for himself.
Henry’s first season in Baltimore was that rare combination of weekly upside and depth. He scored a touchdown in all nine games. This week will be the seventh time he has reached the top 10 at this position. Even with some tough matchups ahead – including both Pittsburgh games – I don’t see what’s going to hold Henry back. And keep in mind that his career trend says he tends to be more effective the deeper we get into the season.
Henry totaled 133 yards and two touchdowns — giving him more than 100 career rushing scores — in the 41-10 laugh over Denver on Sunday. Jackson only had to throw 19 times, but he completed 16 for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Zay Flowers finally broke through with some touchdowns and scored twice on a 5-127-2 afternoon.
If Henry, Jackson and Flowers are right, there isn’t much room for anyone else. Mark Andrews scored just two goals on Sunday; Rashod Bateman had four. Diontae Johnson played about a third of the snaps and ran six routes on 22 dropbacks. I know this may sound wild, but I wonder if his fantasy value was better in Carolina. He’ll eventually grow into a bigger role in Baltimore, but there’s a lot of ball completion here.
Kamara continues to race to a career-high in touches. He had a ridiculous 35 handles in the loss at Carolina, 29 rushes and six catches – good for 215 yards on that workload. Taysom Hill scored a touchdown, but Kamara’s managers will be happy to follow this line. But we have to wonder how well Kamara will withstand the pounding. His season high for touches is 287, set three years ago. After Sunday he is at 196 in nine games.
Of course, the Saints don’t have much else to rely on. Breakout receiver Rashid Shaheed is out for a year. Chris Olave suffered a scary concussion on Sunday. There is no other impactful running back on the roster. Unfortunately, New Orleans has to come up with something. After a sparkling 2-0 start to the season in September – big wins over Carolina and Dallas – the Saints have now lost seven games in a row.
Will the paper bags be out when New Orleans hosts Atlanta next week?
Other week 9 blooms
Achane does it all for dolphins
With all due respect to the older backs, let’s put the cap on the current No. 2 pick in Week 9: That’s Miami sophomore De’Von Achane with 28.1 fantasy points. He had 20 touches for 121 total yards and two scores in the loss at Buffalo, including an 8-58-1 line in the passing game (catching all targets). Tua Tagovailoa still hasn’t completely revived things with Tyreek Hill (4-80-0, five goals) and Jaylen Waddle (minus-4 yards, but one touchdown). Achane is the obvious linchpin of this Miami offense.
Burrow is having a day without much from Chase
Joe Burrow currently holds the yellow jersey from Week 9 at quarterback, a five-touchdown jamboree over the Raiders. Unfortunately, not a single score went to Ja’Marr Chase (7-43-0), although not for lack of effort (11 goals). Mike Gesicki clicked as a tight end sleeper (5-100-2), Chase Brown caught a touchdown and Drew Sample and Andrei Iosivas scored, keeping each other company on most waiver wires in America.
Fantasy gods laugh in week 9
Sometimes the touchdown trolls come out to play. Josh Allen had three touchdown passes in the win over Miami, and they went to Ray Davis (a nice player, and an addition to make, but a backup), Mack Hollins and Quintin Morris (on the 11th catch of his career) . Some things simply cannot be predicted. It’ll be interesting to see how Allen switches back as a runner – he scrambled for just seven yards on Sunday, and he has just three rushing touchdowns after gobbling up 15 yards last year.
Remark: I’ll have additional analysis of week 9 as the day progresses.
