Most fantasy players are anything but a lesson in patience. We move effortlessly from elation to despair with little middle ground. We have high expectations and if they are not met right away, we go to the darkest places.
Sometimes the best I can do is try not to think about Player X, who lets you down week after week.
So what happens when a player or team we’ve almost given up on starts producing? Can we trust it? Can we let it be a lesson in patience? Or are we doomed to be slaves to the emotional rollercoaster that is fantasy football?
Here we’ll take a look at some of the big names that pushed the panic button on us in September to see if we think they can be trusted going forward.
Caleb Williams, QB, and D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Let me start with Swift, who was drafted as a fantasy starter by many a Zero or Hero RB quarterback. That seemed like a big mistake during the first three weeks of the season. Since then, though, Swift has been fantasy’s RB2 with at least 19 half-PPR fantasy points per game in weeks 4-6.
Those coincided with some of the best fantasy matchups for running backs (Rams, Panthers, Jaguars) and with Williams’ improved play. Williams was drafted as a backup QB with future potential and that potential has been met; Williams has been fantasy’s QB8 for the past three weeks. He was easy to be patient with as he experienced the growing pains of the NFL (two touchdowns, four interceptions in the first three games, three fumbles this season). Over the last two weeks, though, he’s made his mark as a fantasy must-start (six TDs, one pick).
The Bears will have a bye in Week 7, but both players’ managers are looking forward to their Week 8 matchup with Washington. I will note that Chicago’s receivers, including TE Cole Kmet, will likely remain fantasy performers. But given the number of injuries we’re dealing with this season, DJ Moore, Kmet and Keenan Allen are in must-start territory going forward.
Bijan Robinson, RB, and Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson has finally produced a fantasy line that matches where you drafted him (25.5 half PPR points in Week 6). But he hasn’t been bad, reaching double-digit production in four games so far and narrowly missing that milestone in Weeks 4-5. With the Seahawks, Bucs, and Cowboys up next – all above-average fantasy matchups for RBs – I think you can safely expect 15-20 fantasy points from your first-round pick in the near future.
Robinson isn’t doing it alone, though, as the entire Falcons offense has improved in recent weeks and ranks 11th in points per game and points per game. London has averaged eight catches for nearly 100 yards per game over the past three games, and his four receiving touchdowns have helped him achieve fantasy WR5 status. After a tough Week 1 against the Steelers, London was rock solid.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
McLaurin has long been a lesson in patience, and since we were able to draft him in the mid-rounds this year, it wasn’t too difficult to overcome his slow start. While it was frustrating at times to watch Jayden Daniels excel from the start and McLaurin give us four to eight fantasy points in the first two weeks of the season, all is forgiven now.
McLaurin has quickly become one of the top draft values, finishing Week 6 as fantasy’s WR5 and moving up to WR14 on the season (half PPR rating). He is on his way to a fifth straight season of over 1,000 yards and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished with a career best in fantasy points per game.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown was another trendy Zero RB target this summer, and someone fantasy managers will quickly brag about drafting. Brown has scored at least once in each of the last three Bengals games and has been the ninth-best fantasy returner in that span. The Bengals may have sputtered to start the season, but they’re humming along now. Patience has paid off as Brown has become a player you can rely on during these difficult bye weeks.
Looking ahead, Brown will see two more challenging matchups with the Browns and Eagles before another choice matchup with the Raiders in Week 9. However, that is only half the story. Brown has beaten Zach Moss in each of the last two games, with just one fewer goal in Week 4. That means the odds are increasingly on his side. We only lose Dallas and Chicago to byes this week, but Brown may still have more upside than, say, James Cook (vs. Tennessee), a 49ers back (vs. KC) or Aaron Jones (vs. Detroit).
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews finally got the game his fantasy managers were waiting for… but did you even start him? This weekend was only his third acceptable game (considering how bad the position is, I say seven half PPR points is okay) of the season and it was by far his best (3/65/1).
I think there is room for patience in fantasy football, but I don’t expect Andrews to be an elite fantasy TE for the rest of the season. Maybe you’ve put together a roster that can withstand his zeros (it’s happened twice so far), but I’m more comfortable starting Isaiah Likely or whatever other streaming option is lying around on waivers.
Maybe you picked up Kmet after week 5; I’ll definitely start him over Andrews.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Speaking of patience with tight ends, LaPorta was probably the first TE drafted in your league in the second or maybe third round. So yeah, it was nice to finally see him score in Week 6. And yeah, it was a great catch-and-run trick play, too. But it was also one catch on one target against a defense that has underperformed to the hilt.
It’s not a matter of patience with LaPorta, it’s the fear of missing out on the explosive stat line he’s still very capable of producing. You need to keep starting him and I join you in hoping that his involvement in the Lions’ high-powered offense continues to increase. But it might not be there this week, as the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest points per game in the league to their opponents.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Everyone loves to put away a rookie QB early in the season, and if your pick was Nix, you probably had a hard time looking yourself in the mirror the first two weeks of the season (four interceptions, zero passing touchdowns by None). He showed signs of life against a Bucs defense that turned out not to be as potent as people thought, rushing for his second goal of the season and managing to protect the football. But he’s really turned things around in the last two games, a stretch in which he has accounted for five touchdowns and one interception plus more than 200 passing yards and 35 rushing yards per game.
He’s QB7 over the two-game fantasy example. Importantly, Week 6’s performance was against the Chargers, who have been the stingiest defense in the league to this point (13.2 PPG allowed on average). If you’ve been limping with Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert, it might be time to consider a dramatic move to Nix.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Downs is something of a fantasy darling, so even though he started the season healing an ankle injury, he was called up to most 12-team leagues. He started slowly in Week 3, but has been a fantasy workhorse since, managing fantasy finishes of WR8, WR26, and WR16. Those were good enough to make him the fantasy WR11 over the past three games with an average of 10 targets per game.
The problem is, those games all featured pass-happy Joe Flacco at QB and Anthony Richardson returns for the Week 7 meeting with Miami. While Miami’s offense has struggled since losing Tua Tagovailoa, the defense has held opposing wide receivers to the second-fewest fantasy points per game (they allow the fewest to QB and are league average against RB).
I understand not having better options, but Downs isn’t a player I’m comfortable trusting in Week 7 despite his recent successes.
