In this edition of Fact or Fluke, we look ahead to week 14, which will test the patience and skills of some fantasy managers. Six teams have parted ways, and five of them (Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis, Houston and Denver) have players we rely on heavily. Sixth-ranked New England has provided a spot starter or two in deeper leagues.
Many of us have a bench full of injured or questionable players, especially if they are coming off a tough Week 13. We all have certain players with such a wide range of outcomes that we can’t drop them completely, but we also can’t drop them completely. ourselves to start them most weeks. Additionally, the recent stretch of games may have opened up some new opportunities in the backup running back department.
Bucky Irving and Chase Brown are in full takeover mode for their backfields, while Chris Rodriguez Jr., Ray Davis and Sincere McCormick saw an uptick in action. On the other hand, many of our fantasy enthusiasts find themselves in some very ugly matchups this week; Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, just to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Bijan Robinson have a tough battle at RB, so we really need some solid options to round out our roster this week.
We go position by position to find out who is a safe addition to your Week 14 retirement/injury woes.
Remember: This is the final push towards the playoffs for most leagues.
Q: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold is fantasy’s QB8 of the season, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game; he was started in only 33% of competitions in week 13 (included in 70% of competitions). If you’re the person holding Darnold, it’s probably this week. The Vikings get to host the Falcons this weekend and Atlanta is the seventh-best QB matchup. Even in tougher situations (Detroit, Chicago), Darnold has been able to pull through.
His two truly terrible outings (Jets in Week 5 and, inexplicably, Jaguars in Week 10) are outliers. I’m with you on the PTSD from Week 10, but other than getting blown out by the Broncos a few weeks ago, Atlanta has kept the games relatively close, which should keep the Vikings motivated and Darnold throwing touchdowns.
RB: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers can’t catch a break. Everyone knew what would happen to Christian McCaffrey’s season after watching Sunday Night Football replays a few times, but Jordan Mason was placed on IR with a high ankle sprain?! Come on, fantasy gods.
Next in line is rookie Guerendo, who has seen very little action this season (42 carries) but is averaging 5.9 YPC. In two games with 10 or more touches, he posted 9.9 YPC and 6.1 YPC. He should be busy this weekend against the Bears, as a ground attack was more successful against Chicago’s stout defense than an aerial attack.
RB: Braelon Allen, New York Jets
This is a real desperation game; For example, if you can get one of the backs who have started in 30-60% of leagues (D’Andre Swift, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rico Dowdle, Isiah Pacheco, Nick Chubb, etc.), you do it. But that seems obvious to me, so if you’re here and you’re really desperate, there are a few reasons to like Allen this week.
One of them is that the Jets don’t make the playoffs. Two is that Breece Hall fumbled twice in Week 13 and lost one after being questionable with a knee injury prior to the game. There’s really no reason for the Jets to risk further injuries to their superstar running back at this point in the season. Three is that Allen has been quite reliable when called upon to play a bigger role. Finally, Miami has been a brutal passing matchup, but ranks 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Bottom line: If your squad can handle the very wide range of results that Allen offers, he could be a pleasant surprise next Sunday.
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Meyers ranks fourth among wide receivers in targets over the past three games. Only Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London and Malik Nabers precede him in opportunities. I’ll grant that Aidan O’Connell targets aren’t super coveted by fantasy managers, but Meyers is a veteran PPR hero. Meyers was included in most leagues, but started at just 41% last week, and should be an easy pick for Week 14.
It’s a favorable passing game against the Bucs for him and Brock Bowers. This offense is basically those two guys, so the volume has to stay high. Meyers had 11 or more targets in three of the last four games, averaging 107 receiving yards per game on 24 catches. However, he seems to be back in non-scoring mode after breaking that mold a bit last season. Or maybe the best is yet to come…
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WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans
In case you somehow missed it, Westbrook-Ikhine may have the best catch-to-touchdown ratio of all time (20:8). After his two-touchdown game in Week 13, this could be construed as chasing points, which is something I don’t like to do. With a catch rate of just 52.6 and just 365 yards per year, and an inconsistent quarterback, we’re not looking at a high floor guy, but a player with a good baseline. He has seen at least five goals in each of the last three games, trailing Calvin Ridley in that regard, but not by much.
He’s a big reason Will Levis is gaining traction (see below). The Titans and Levis will look to finish their season strong, with Westbrook-Ikhine no doubt looking for another extension this season. A strong performance against a pass defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to opponents seems more likely than not.
TE: Cade Oton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 14, recorded in more than 80% of competitions but started in less than 45%, could be Otton’s return to relevance. He enjoyed a stretch from Weeks 7 through 9, when he got double-digit targets, averaged nearly 100 yards per game and scored three times. While things have been bleak since then, he improved and saw seven targets in Week 13.
We’re partly picking the matchup here – the Bucs host Las Vegas – but it’s not just that. Otton has proven to be a reliable pass catcher and target in the end zone. Baker Mayfield has been more than adept at guiding Tampa Bay to another playoff berth this year, a trend that should continue in this favorable spot.
QB2: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
For those in Superflex leagues with double trouble in the bye week, it might be Levi’s time. Remember when he was going to make big strides this offseason and make the sophomore leap in fantasy production? Sometimes we are right, but not right away.
Levis has quietly averaged 17.2 fantasy points over his last four games, with a TD:INT ratio of 8:2. A meeting with the defenseless Jaguars this weekend should mean more of the same fantasy goodness for Levis. Jacksonville not only gives up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but also the most fantasy points overall and the third-most real-life points. It’s as friendly a matchup as you can find, and I prefer him this weekend to Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell (just a little), Mac Jones or Bryce Young.
