As we close the books on another wild fantasy season, we want to give Fact of Fluke its broadest approach yet. While it is true that the events of the 2024 season will shape the predictions, projections, and fantasy drafting decisions for 2025, it is not clear that we will remember the events exactly as we should.
Memory is a tricky thing. One of the problems with memory is that every time we remember something, the memory becomes unstable, meaning it can be changed. This fact forms the basis for the treatment of many phobias and PTSD. It has also raised questions about witness testimony in legal settings; when a witness is repeatedly questioned about the same events, his memory can shift in subtle ways. Scientific research has shown that memories of things that never happened can be imprinted in people’s brains by a trusted confidante and become part of their personal story.
Why do we care about this in fantasy football? We can agree that the statistics are the statistics, the numbers are the same no matter who is looking at it, right? But the way the statistics affected us led to our ranking of the season in terms of whether it was good or bad for us. Most cognitive biases, which will certainly harm our decision-making, concern the way we weigh information. Take Ja’Marr Chase, who is having the best season of his four-year career and leads all wide receivers in half PPR fantasy points with more than 60 fantasy points. If you didn’t draft him and happened to play him in one of his below-average weeks (1, 2, 6, or 9), he hasn’t really impressed you this year and you might be underweight him. Statistics for 2024 next year. However, if you did have him on your roster, you might have overweighted those same stats in your 2025 draft preparation.
When we are aware of our tendency toward biased memory, we can see the data for what it is and nothing more (or less).
The biggest culprit in tampering with the accuracy of our memory is recency bias. The way players finished their season, or your fantasy season, will outweigh their early or midseason performance. Early season heroes are forgotten, while those who excelled during the fantasy playoffs earn extra points. Are we going to believe in the Giants again next year after Drew Lock finished the season looking like Patrick Mahomes? No, but Malik Nabers is still a huge fantasy asset regardless of who the QB is in New York.
Is Marvin Mims Jr., who didn’t help anyone in the fantasy finale, the real deal in Denver? He’s finishing the season strong – in remarkably good matchups – and Bo Nix really needs a go-to guy. I’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens in a must-win game in Week 18, albeit against the Chiefs’ second-ranked team, but I think Mims could be a big asset next year.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished the season strong with Mac Jones, but can we trust the Jaguars next season? What about Tank Bigsby? Both will be drafted relatively high next season. I actually think that by 2025, Jacksonville will know it all. The pieces are in place on both sides of the ball…and I’m a serial optimist.
The way to deal with recency bias when it comes to next year’s draft is to look at the player’s season as a whole. The average fantasy points per game is useful, but the trend line is more useful. A high average and a relatively flat line, that is our star profile in the first round. A low start with a positive trajectory as the season progresses? This guy is primed for a better fantasy season than his average indicates. The hardest plot to predict is the up-down-up-down player who has great games combined with complete duds. These guys are your late round dart throws. A few will reach consistent starter status, but most will remain benchwarmers we pray for during our worst bye week.
Other factors that could impact our recall during the offseason include injuries and benchings. Understanding the nature of the injury and the reasons for the benching can go a long way in dampening any overreactions that could continue into 2025. Take Jalen Hurts, who suffered a concussion in Week 16 – in the first quarter – that had most, if not all, of his consequences. the fantasy managers who drafted him. This leaves a terrible taste in our mouths, but shouldn’t have any impact on where he gets drafted in 2025.
Or James Conner, who was such a huge factor in getting you to the championship, who suffered a knee injury at the end of the Week 16 game, but then went on to be active, re-injured the knee and was one of the biggest duds of the season. Ouch! Then again, I fully expect the perennially underrated Conner to be a late-round steal next year.
Perhaps the biggest lesson to take from 2024 regarding injuries is not to overdraft players who start the season on IR. Nick Chubb (eighth round), Jonathan Brooks (eighth round) and TJ Hockenson (10th round) were the bigs, and while Hockenson actually returned in Week 9 and played the rest of the season, it was his worst since his rookie year. (2019).
What do we do when years of data-based opinions are turned upside down? This season we wonder who Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold really are. Then there are the fantasy workhorses who more or less fell off the market this year: Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Isiah Pacheco, CJ Stroud, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins come to mind.
Mayfield wasn’t bad last year. The Bucs have a lot of offensive talent and one of the best offensive lines in the league. A quick release philosophy plays to Mayfield’s strengths, and they play in one of the easiest divisions. All this to say that this could finally be the ‘real’ Mayfield. Darnold is a little different; yes, he has great receivers and a solid run game with him, and his offensive line is good enough to make him the QB who holds the ball the longest before throwing, but not elite. Darnold wasn’t drafted to be the Vikings’ hero this season, but his 18-to-2 TD:INT ratio in the last seven games has likely helped some fantasy managers win their leagues. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota turning away from him after this breakout season. My confidence level is lower than Mayfield based on his previous six seasons, but it is higher than I could ever have imagined back in August.
Subscribe Yahoo Fantasy Prediction on Apple podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
As for the others mentioned above, they deserve to be drafted at least two to three rounds later next year. For many, age becomes a factor. Hill has a LOT of wear and tear on that fast body. For others it’s custom and competition or a shift in team philosophy; for example, the Rams have another true elite in Kyren Williams. On the other hand, the Chiefs and Andy Reid seem committed not too much reliance on one go-to player, meaning Pacheco never really became the bell cow we want.
Finally, what about the trends in concept strategies? Smart drafters have moved from an RB-heavy early-round approach to a more durable WR-heavy build over the past decade. Zero RB has given way to Hero RB over the past two seasons, but taking a lot of early wide receivers was still the most popular strategy of 2024. Drafters are split between Late Round QB or Elite QB, given the value of dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen and Hurts. I’ve looked at the types of teams you encounter after following a rigid draft strategy, and year after year the data points to balance and flexibility being the best construct. Having a guiding principle like “I know I want a rushing QB in the top five” is fine, but if you miss that, taking the sixth or seventh QB – without the rushing top – is reactive and suboptimal. You have to be willing to pivot to take advantage of what’s in front of you.
Good fantasy and life advice, if you ask me as we prepare to look ahead to 2025. Happy New Year!
