One lap down, two more to go! Whether you say goodbye or emerge victorious thanks to one (or more) of Week 15’s dominant fantasy performances, we have the advice you need to keep the momentum going toward the championship.
If you got eliminated from the playoffs last weekend and you’re here just out of habit, I love it! Starting Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry would end up better than this. Also, no one told me that Mac Jones, Cooper Rush and Drake Maye were the key to winning the week, while Jameis Winston, Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa were fantasy poison.
You now have three options. First, you can look back fondly on a wild rollercoaster of a season, appreciate how far you’ve come, and reflect on whether you could logically have done anything differently. Sometimes the answer is no. You try your hardest and sometimes the fantasy points go the other way. But if you can learn something about your propensity to retain and start players based more on name value and ADP than actual performance and matchup, or when to blow your entire FAAB or if you should be more open to trade offers , then take the lessons.
The other way to go is total anger. Play loud, loud music, delete all (other) fantasy apps and podcasts, sulk and of course wish the worst on the competitors who beat you with crazy Jerome Ford or Rashad Batemon.
Finally, try a different fantasy format. Play DFS. You’re here, might as well use the information!
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Back to the managers advancing: Before we get into specific player-related advice (I’m putting them into buckets based on confidence levels this week), I want to follow up on some points from last week and zoom out to a league-wide look at motivation. Motivation is very important at this time of year. Teams with nothing to play for can rest starters in favor of checking out rookies or giving players with expiring contracts a chance to show what they can do ahead of the offseason. Your best bet is to start players on teams competing for a spot in the playoffs or to gain as much seeding advantage as possible.
Let’s look at some examples.
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Teams in the hunt for a play-off spot, most motivated: Baltimore, Denver, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, Green Bay, Washington, Seattle, Atlanta. Technically, New Orleans, San Francisco, Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Miami And Indianapolis have not yet been eliminated.
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Teams in the play-offs, motivated by placement: Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston, Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota.
Interesting games to target for week 16:
Rams at Jets – The Rams have a good chance to make it, but victory here would bring them closer to victory. The Jets have given up nearly 28 points per game (eighth in the NFL) over the last three games. The Rams “big three” of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams are clear must-starts, as are the Jets’ own trio of Davante Adams, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The game has an over/under score of 46.5 points.
Eagles among commanders – A big one for the NFC East, where the Eagles clinch the division with a win. Defense could make the difference here; Philly has shut down opponents (allowing the second-fewest points over the past three games and tied for the fewest points allowed on the season). With Zach Ertz in the concussion protocol, it’s possible the Commanders could use rookie Ben Sinnott for the first time this season, but he’s not someone you can bet your fantasy championship on. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points and 45.5 points over/under.
Cardinals at Panthers – If there was ever a timely boost to your team’s playoff hopes, this is it. James Conner should continue to carry fantasy managers into the finals this weekend. Although it was disappointing, Marvin Harrison Jr. still the top choice for a Cardinals wide receiver. He leads the group in targets by a wide margin, although Trey McBride is the real hero of this passing attack. Arizona is favored by four points and the over/under is 47 points.
Vikings at Seahawks – Everything is going smoothly for the Vikings, who have averaged 31.7 points per game over the last three. They weren’t as good on the road, but ironically Seattle was worse at home this season, averaging just 19.1 points per game. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been huge disappointments, but Minnesota gives up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. If your decision comes down to game script and DvP (Defense vs. Position), I’ll be starting a Seahawk receiver this week (Geno Smith’s health permitting, of course). The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 43.5 points.
49ers at Dolphins – Both teams need a win, which won’t be possible, but could provide some nice fantasy fireworks. Miami is the favorite with 1.5 points and an over/under of 46 points. The truth is, if you started with Tua, Hill, or Jalen Waddle, you probably won’t get any further. But Hill should bounce back and Jonnu Smith should continue to feast (he ranks fourth in targets with a 78.7% catch rate and six touchdowns this season). The 49ers were fairly forgettable in Week 15, but they will get a few extra days of rest. Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should remain in the starting lineups, although Miami’s DvP at wide receivers and the lack of production we’ve seen from Deebo Samuel Sr. have seen him earn a place on the bench.
Bucs at Cowboys – Another big NFC matchup with an over/under-over/under of 49 points and the Bucs leading by four points. Dallas has one of the largest home and road scoring gaps. At home they score an average of only 16.6 points (out of 26.0). Still, Cooper Rush has been effective in his last two games, throwing five touchdowns (to four different receivers) and just one interception. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are the only players I would trust. On the other side, Mike Evans is clear, but Jalen McMillan can start. With nine catches on 13 targets and three scores in his last two games, he has fully integrated into the Bucs offense and is a friendly match for Dallas (ninth most fantasy points for WR).
With the Bucs using three running backs, it’s hard to feel good about Rachaad White or Bucky Irving, but I’d start with both this week. White has three touchdowns in his last two games and Irving’s big playmaking skills have him averaging 5.6 YPC with six touchdowns this season.
Saints at Packers – This game should end the Saints’ playoff hopes, but as evidenced by the 42 points over/under, their defense has been more effective lately (they’ve allowed the third-fewest points in the last three weeks). Still, the Packers are favored by 13.5 points, which is a testament to their own defense and Spencer Rattler’s lack of offense (the Saints have also scored just 15.7 points per game over the last three, the fifth-worst mark in the competition). I’m not inclined to trust Kendre Miller, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or any other saint in a must-win playoff game. Likewise, we’ve struggled all season with receiving hierarchy in Green Bay, or lack thereof. Josh Jacobs is certainly a no-brainer here, but it’s hard to follow Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, or Romeo Doubs when either of them has a 2 TD lead. This will be a very matchup-specific decision; if you need a guaranteed 10 fantasy points, I’d look elsewhere, but if you’re a huge underdog in your matchup, start your Packers’ WR.
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Teams that don’t make the play-offs and are the least motivated: NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, New England, Las Vegas, Chicago, Carolina, NY Giants.
Other than a few stars like Adams, Wilson and Hall mentioned above and Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers and Malik Nabers, I prefer to avoid these teams. Most of us will have to start Jerome Ford, Tony Pollard, Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen and maybe Jakobi Meyers. Plus, the game script could be a lot of fun for your Bengals – Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – against the Browns, even though a win this week probably won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs. Now is the time to keep your eyes and ears open for any indication that teams are cutting a player or committing to giving a younger player more game action.
To be clear, this is more to prevent a decreasing workload than to benefit from one possible increased workload with a bad team.
In short, target starting players from teams with the highest scoring per game, teams with the highest implied individual totals, and games with high over/unders. Look for the best rushing and passing matchups, using DvP primarily as a tiebreaker. In Week 16, it’s the proven fantasy players who are ready to take you to the Championship Round. This is not the time to overthink the obvious and tinker with your schedule. If your justification for making a lineup change contains a lot of “maybes,” “mights” or “maybes,” don’t do it! Stick to the calm and rational personality we discussed last week and move on to the finale.
