Just like that, we’re headed to the fantasy football playoffs. One day we have enough time to manage our roster, absorb a few losses, and the next day we are in the middle of the pressure cooker of fantasy sports. People react very differently to high-pressure situations.
Some of us are calm and collected, perhaps more so than under ‘normal’ circumstances, and rationally get the things done that need to be done. Others become almost deterministically detached from the outcome and take no action at all. Still others of us will panic, like a proverbial headless chicken, doing many things but without a clear or logical plan.
In addition to our innate personalities, our decisions surrounding the fantasy playoffs can be drowning in bias. A cognitive bias is any deviation from a rational and logical judgment. Although they get a lot of bad press, the prejudices are not all negative. Some are particularly good for us, allowing us to make very accurate first impressions or to trust that events that have occurred repeatedly or recently are likely to continue. It’s those that lead us to falsely magnify the importance of certain types of data while ignoring others that can put us in a bad position. Many prejudices exist simply to protect our fragile egos, which will not help us win fantasy championships, but only to justify our losses.
In this week’s edition of Fact or Fluke, we discuss some of the decisions you’ll need to make over the next three weeks and how you can avoid succumbing to cognitive biases. As with so many things in life, knowledge is power. Just know when and how you are doing most likely If you unknowingly make a biased decision, you can help prevent it. Whether you’re saying goodbye this week or facing an uphill battle after just sneaking into the playoffs, we’ve got some advice for you!
Channel the personality of the calm and collected manager.
Avoid adding, dropping, and re-adding free agents all week long, like the panicky headless chicken. But don’t just tune out and let the chips fall where they may. Nothing in fantasy football is preordained. Even if you’re off this week, set up your Week 15 lineup as you normally would so you can see how you stack up against the playoff rosters of your peers.
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Be methodical.
Start by focusing on the depth quality. You have a great starting list, but is it injury-proof? Matchup-proof? Keep an eye out for the close, high-scoring games by checking the betting lines. Look for rushing/passing mismatches. If one of your key starters goes down in Week 15, are you willing to fill his spot with someone in a plus matchup (by DvP) or on a team with a high implied total?
Up to and including week 14 are the highest scoring offenses Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Washington, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Minnesota. With Washington and Baltimore parting ways last week, there’s a chance some of their second-tier players have been cut.
The most generous defenses are Carolina, Dallas, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and LA Rams. For fantasy points allowed, they are Jacksonville, Carolina, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Dallas, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Indianapolis and LA Rams. As expected, there is a lot of overlap.
The best running back matchups are Carolina, Jacksonville and Buffalo.
The best matchups for wide receivers are Minnesota, Atlanta, Baltimore and Jacksonville.
For tight ends are the best matchups Las Vegas, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis.
Game script is important.
If you haven’t already, now’s the time to dive into the gameflow capabilities of Weeks 16 and 17. While predicting the game script is an imperfect process, it’s still your best bet to gauge which teams are capable to play out the clock for the entire second half and which others are in full-time passing mode and playing from behind. That then indicates which RBs or WRs you prioritize adding.
Make sure you have the best defensive unit you can get for the next two weeks. Turnovers and points allowed are the best indicators of fantasy success, but looking at the ratio of sacks to the number of sacks taken in a given matchup can also be a valuable leading statistic.
The teams with the highest pick-up percentage are Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay, Houston and Buffalo. In terms of points allowed to opponents, the stingiest defenses are LA Chargers, Detroit, Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Bag leaders include Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Minnesota and LA Chargers. If yours is one of the 33% of leagues where Denver is cut, bring them in for a Week 15 tilt with the Colts.
This is a time for you to reduce dead weight.
Players you transported just in case they’re returning to that windfall of early-season fantasy points. They’re on your couch, their time is up. Even if they go off again, it won’t help you. Players like Raheem Mostert and Alexander Mattison are still included in 40-48% of Yahoo leagues. That third QB or extra kicker? He is no longer needed.
There are several cognitive biases associated with holding on to things that no longer serve a purpose.
It’s why our basements, garages, and closets fill up with stuff we just can’t part with. You’ve probably heard of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, the Endowment Effect, and of course FOMO. They are all based on the idea that a part of ourselves is involved in every investment we make, and if that investment turns out badly, it means we were wrong.
By investments I don’t just mean stocks, although it certainly applies to financial management, but it could also be a pair of shoes, a piece of art on the wall, a handy lawn and garden tool, and so on. My mother has a painting on the wall that I helped choose for her and it looks awful in her space. It doesn’t match the rest of her decor at all, but she can’t bring herself to admit that her daughter made a terrible mistake by choosing it for her.
The point is, it’s very liberating to admit we were wrong with our past choices and donate or throw away the things that no longer work for us. If your goal is to win your fantasy league, you have to be willing to be brutally honest about your selection. ADP doesn’t matter. Name recognition doesn’t matter. Touches, matchup and game script matter now.
Spend time researching the rosters of your potential opponents.
What did they have to do to survive the week 14 byepocalypse? Have they left holes in their depth chart that you can take advantage of? Blocking your opponent’s ability to get going again with the running backs or the best available tight end gives you a slight edge, but it’s the move I give the least priority. Improving your own squad is always the better game.
If they have the “obvious guy” for Week 15 – that’s Patrick Taylor Jr. or Braelon Allen – then go for the man behind the man. Israel Abanikanda for the 49ers and Isaiah Davis of the Jets are the big names to consider. Everyone loves a rookie like Xavier Legette, but the boring veteran, Adam Thielen, is the guy with just over 100 receiving yards per game and 21 targets over the last two weeks. He’ll be available in nearly half the leagues this weekend with Dallas on tap.
The bottom line is that you need to be very intentional about your fantasy decisions in the coming weeks. Every popular waiver wire addition isn’t for every manager. Really think about what your team needs to become stronger and then try to create that strength in the most strategic way possible. Changing things for the sake of change is rarely the right choice. Good luck this week!
