Our mission here is simple: separate the truth from the lie. In sports, almost anything can (and will) happen in a given game. In addition to producing some real standouts in roles from Garrett Wilson and Saquon Barkley, Week 9 gave us plenty of surprise fantasy performances.
No one will look a gift horse in the mouth in our case, or a zillion fantasy points in your column, but some of these epic stat lines probably ended up on your couch. Can you rely on the continued production of these players going forward, or would starting them be a desperate act of chasing points? Let’s take a look at our biggest (pleasant) surprises of the week and determine whether they are a fact or a coincidence.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle
With the best fantasy line of any offensive player in Week 9, I really hope you started with JSN (or at least that you didn’t run into him). 7/180/2 is just not a stat line you see very often in our game, and it was easily the best of Smith-Njigba’s NFL career. The talent has never been a question with him as he was a record setter among stars at Ohio State (2021). He has been slowly building momentum leading up to this perfect storm of DK Metcalf sitting out again and the LA Rams’ softer pass defense.
What’s next for this potential fantasy superstar? Unfortunately, I think he’ll come back down to Earth when Metcalf returns to the lineup. That doesn’t necessarily make him unstartable, as what he’s accomplished over the past two weeks should go a long way toward building confidence with Geno Smith and all he needs is a higher target share to succeed. JSN’s YAC and contested catching ability make him an asset to the slot and he is the future of this receiving group.
If you have the luxury of being picky when starting JSN, I aim for high-scoring, close or underdog game scripts and soft defensive opponents. Circle Weeks 12 and 14 against Arizona and Week 16 against Minnesota as potential smash spots for Smith-Njigba.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Considering how well Lamar Jackson has played this season, it’s not shocking that Flowers put up a huge stat line (5/127/2), but it still exceeded his managers’ expectations. This was his fourth game of the season with over 100 yards receiving, but his first trip to the end zone since Week 2. More kudos to Flowers and Jackson for doing so against an above-average pass defense. Flowers will have his fantasy ups and downs, but it doesn’t appear like a Diontae Johnson acquisition is imminent in Baltimore. Keep placing Flowers in setups.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Believe it or not, Week 9 was only Gesicki’s third 100-yard receiving game in the NFL. No matter where he played, his receiving skills were largely ignored. This breakout play (5/100/2) is likely a blip on an otherwise mundane radar. For starters, he can’t play the defensively challenged Raiders every week. Plus, Joe Burrow doesn’t throw five touchdown passes every week and Tee Higgins returns. This is unfortunately one of those sweet performances that didn’t help anyone.
Even though TE Erick All Jr. of fellow Benglas out this season, I wouldn’t rush to add Gesicki or start him in hopes of even half the production in Week 10. While the Bengals get a great matchup with division rival Baltimore in Week 10, expect most of the passing production will flow to Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins…unless he is traded before the deadline. In that scenario, Gesicki becomes a little more interesting, but would still be behind Andrei Iosivas.
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Quentin Johnston, WR, LA Chargers
It’s funny how your brain reacts to a player you were super hyped for a season too early. Last year I drafted a lot of Johnston based on his scouting profile and landing position, but I was extremely disappointed with his usage. This year? No shares from Johnston, and I’m not even happy he’s passing. Well, I’m kind of happy because I’m a decent person, but also still bitter. He bounced back from a two-week absence due to an ankle injury to catch four of five targets for 118 yards and a score.
Outside of a 2 TD game in Week 2, this is Johnston’s only score and by far his longest yardage. He’s closing in on rookie Ladd McConkey in goal and air meter share, but Joshua Palmer is still in the mix and this is a scheme that involves a lot of running. Justin Herbert ranks 21st in pass attempts and 22nd in passing yards this season, although lower volume only includes limited errors as he is the only QB to have played eight games with just one interception this season. Still, it makes it difficult to start two LA receivers every week.
Next are the Titans, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs. If you have better options, it’s fine to bench Johnston, who really needs to play big plays to make a fantasy impact, for someone with a more reliably higher target volume.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown is the player fantasy managers love. He had the right hype this offseason, was available later in the draft and potentially had a clear path to a valuable role in a hot offense…as long as Zack Moss was out of the picture. It sounds like the pilot episode of The Penguin.
But seriously, it all happened last weekend for Brown and his managers. A great matchup with the Raiders, no Moss and Burrow going crazy. Chase ran the ball 27 times for 120 rushing yards and a touchdown, while adding five catches for 37 yards and another score on five targets. It’s a testament to Week 9’s running back dominance that his line was only good for the RB7 in half PPR scores.
While the match certainly greased the wheels, Brown is that good; he is not a fluke. The only tricky part of the equation is that, as much as you and I think this should be Brown’s backfield, the Bengals won’t give up Moss, and they have now traded to acquire Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears. Even if Brown is the 1A, there’s still a threatening 1B — whether it’s Herbert or Moss upon his return. I still think you can start Brown, but keep in mind that his next three matchups range from not great to terrible for fantasy running backs.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Sutton turned heads by catching seven of 10 targets for 122 yards in Week 9 against Baltimore, the league’s most generous pass defense. Denver moved the ball effectively against this porous secondary, but struggled to punch it in. Sutton accounted for about half of Bo Nix’s air meters and boosted his unusual stat line by throwing a touchdown pass Unpleasant Nix, the only one of the day for Denver.
The Broncos’ passing offense is difficult to figure out. Nix ranks eighth and 10th in pass attempts and completions, respectively, but 21st in yards. He has thrown just eight touchdown passes (six picks) and is bolstering his own fantasy lines on the ground (295 rushing yards, four TDs). Sutton is the clear number 1, but has only scored twice this year. The volume alone makes him starter-worthy, but you can’t count on a trick play to boost his output every week, and I’d be especially cautious heading into a Week 10 matchup with the Chiefs, who have the third allow fewest points per game. and the sixth least fantasy points to wide receivers.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Like Johnston, I bought Jones quite big last season, only to be met with endless disappointment. He is capable of what we expected, but he’s not a QB you can trust every week. A few things are surprising about Jones this season. He ranks fourth in pass attempts and sixth in completions, but 16th in yards and 27th in fantasy points per game. That’s after his QB5 finish in Week 9 (174/2 passing, 54/1 rushing) against the Commanders. Those fantasy managers who missed Jordan Love or Geno Smith in Week 10 might consider chasing points with Jones against Carolina in Germany this weekend, because as far as velvety, matchup-based good performances go, the Panthers are where it’s at.
Note: Malik Nabers remains the target, but it was nice to see Theo Johnson finish second with six goals and the touchdown (3/51/1). He could also be a good player in Week 10, as the Panthers are our second-best TE matchup in fantasy.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers
After much speculation about which Carolina receiver(s) would benefit from Johnson’s trade to the Ravens, it turned out that Sanders was the underrated guy. With four of five targets for 87 yards in Week 9, it was the best game of the rookie’s career. It certainly helped that Tommy Tremble was inactive, but Sanders accounting for just over half of Bryce Young’s passing yards is significant. At 6-foot-4 and over 250 pounds, Sanders is a big target, having made 21% of the team’s targets in Week 9 (the same as Xavier Legette). If you’re TOO needy, I wouldn’t hate to start Sanders vs. NY in Germany.
