Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve it, here’s a look at five players with bust potential in Week 15 – a crucial week when most teams enter the fantasy football playoffs.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Jalen hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After a series of shotty games in weeks 11-13, Hurts returned to form with a 24 fantasy point outing to redeem fantasy managers in a pivotal week. Despite it being his second consecutive game with fewer than 120 passing yards (and third of fewer than 180), he made up ground (literally) with 59 rushing yards and a score to complement his two passing TDs. No doubt it’s been an up-and-down run for the Eagles’ passing game lately, but luckily the run game has been strong enough to continue their win streak through the bad times.
While Hurts has overall QB1 upside on a weekly basis, an upcoming matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers feels like a bit of a trap that could set fantasy managers up for a less-than-desirable outcome. Not only have the Steelers limited opposing QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game this year — they’ve also had a lot of success against rushing QBs.
The Steelers have yet to allow a quarterback 20+ fantasy points this year, despite facing five of the top 12 leading rushers at the position, with the fantasy cheat code (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson) week 15 is approaching. Pittsburgh held these runners to a total of 101 rushing yards with a high of 46 for Lamar Jackson in Week 11; none of them scored more than 15 fantasy points.
Given some of the Eagles’ recent struggles finding rhythm in the passing game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hurts fall outside the top 12 again this week.
Heat check 🔥 Most fantasy football managers (unless you’re in a dynasty league with an embarrassment of riches at QB) can’t afford to sit Hurts in a critical week. However, keep in mind that Hurts is exactly the QB prototype that has limited Pittsburgh this season.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
James Cook did just that this year — cooked. Concerns about a lack of touchdown upside with Josh Allen stealing touches haven’t mattered; Cook has a maximum of 11 touchdowns on the ground and another through the air, and sits as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. It’s not particularly surprising that he’s found a piece of the pie, as there has been plenty of scoring, with the Bills scoring more than 30 points in all but three games this year.
This week the Bills get a matchup against the Detroit Lions with Vegas’ highest expected point total of any game this week, but Buffalo is currently a 3.5-point underdog against a defense that hasn’t had a single RB get 100+ rushing yards in a game this year. Much of that is due to the game script, which features the second-lowest run percentage in the league (32.9%), forcing teams to pass more often thanks to leading the league with 49 offensive touchdowns this year. The Lions aren’t the most dominant run stuffers in the league, but the lack of volume against defenses has led to the second-fewest points per game allowed by RBs this season (15.05).
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Heat check 🔥 Start with Cook in Week 15, but knowing it could be a down week in terms of volume for him, making him more dependent on the touchdown than usual. Cook has averaged just 7.6 fantasy points and 13.75 touches per game in the four games in which the Bills defense has allowed more than 25 points. The Lions have an implied point total of 29 this week.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
This is Nick Chubb’s second consecutive week on the fantasy bust list; I’ll call it official: We can’t sensibly start him in the fantasy playoffs. Consider this your final, eternal warning for the remainder of the season; I promise he won’t be coming to the fades column again this year.
It’s not particularly surprising, but Chubb’s efficiency has been abysmal in his return from a season-ending knee injury in 2023. Of the 37 RBs with 90+ carries this year, Chubb ranks last in YPC average (3. 1) and YPRR (0.4). , with the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.59) and the third-fewest first downs/touchdowns at 17.2%.
Not only has he continued to split the load over the past two weeks (20 going to Jerome Ford’s 19), but he also has an upcoming game against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have a league-low 13.09 fantasy points and 58 Allow .5 rush yards per league. play against opposing RBs. Passage.
Heat check 🔥 Once again I implore you to seek other options with RB. Chubb is a boom/bust, fantasy touchdown-dependent RB, now in a timeshare with a challenging matchup on deck, better left on the bench if you have better options.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have been a tough offense to project every week thanks to Anthony Richardson’s inconsistent passer performance in his second NFL season. That volatility has trickled down to pass catchers, who have struggled to find fantasy relevance. That includes Michael Pittman Jr., who has failed to break the 15-point mark in a week in half-PPR formats this season. Now, in this crucial week 15, is not the time to readmit him to the Circle of Trust, even if he has had a bye week, presumably healthier than before.
Next on the schedule, the Colts will face the Denver Broncos secondary, with Pittman likely to face plenty of CB Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos are playing with the third-highest man coverage percentage this season (38.9%), which Pittman has struggled with overall this year – perhaps in part due to his health, as he has dealt with a painful back injury this season. He ranks last among his fellow Colts WRs with averages of 7.1 YPR, 0.76 YPRR, and 2.8 yards after the catch per reception against man; this could be a better opportunity for WR Josh Downs, who has excelled at a higher rate.
Heat check 🔥 Does Pittman have better options in week 15; his upside isn’t worth the low floor, especially in a must-win week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
After missing three games with a knee injury, it seems likely that second-year TE Dalton Kincaid will return to the Bills lineup in Week 15… but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should return to your fantasy lineups. It’s no secret that 2024 has been a disappointing campaign for the former first-round pick; despite a clear opportunity to take over as the primary receiving option in the absence of Stefon Diggs (and a 24.7% target percentage on routes run – fourth-highest among TEs with 40+ targets), he has failed to impress make on fantasy managers.
Kincaid has seen a decline in his reception percentage since last year (80.2% to 61.8%), even as he has seen an increase in yards per reception (9.6 to 10.5), yards after the catch per reception (4.3 to 6.6) and yards per route running (1.51 to 1.60). Still, this isn’t enough to compensate for the fact that he ranks 21st out of 30 TEs (min. 40 targets) in terms of percentage of catchable targets caught (91.9%). Between that and Allen’s tendency to spread the ball around (especially in the red zone and end zone), his weekly upside is significantly limited.
The Bills Week 15 matchup with the Lions is a challenge; Detroit is allowing the second-fewest EPA per dropback on targets to TEs this year (-0.28), allowing a league-low 418 receiving yards through 13 games and the third-lowest success rate (43.8%) according to NFL Next Gen Stats. It translates to a league-low 5.78 fantasy points per game against opposing TEs, despite facing the likes of Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Cade Oton and Jake Ferguson over the course of the season.
Heat check 🔥 If you’ve survived the last three weeks without Dalton Kincaid, chances are you’ve found another, more suitable option at TE. Kincaid’s ceiling just hasn’t been high enough to warrant a start in the fantasy playoffs, even if you’re hurting at the position.
