Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve this, here are six players with bust potential in Week 16.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa has been on a bit of a good streak lately (aside from Week 15’s road dud against the Houston Texans), having scored more than 23 fantasy points in each of the four previous games — the longest such streak fantasy production in his career. Even though he returns to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16 for a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers’ injury-ravaged defense, his fantasy images aren’t all that appealing.
Tagovailoa has two big concerns this week, the first of which is the matchup. Per Fantasy Points, San Francisco is allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the past five weeks, with the second-lowest explosive pass play rate (9.0%) and the second-lowest YPA average (6.22) is specified therein. range per PFF. Since Week 10, the 49ers have not allowed a single QB to eclipse 225 passing yards, having faced Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Jordan Love, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford during that span, allowing everyone but Josh Allen to less than held 16 fantasy points. .
The second issue in this game is the likely absence of WR Jaylen Waddle, who is currently dealing with a knee injury suffered in Week 15. Despite some inconsistent use of the fourth-year Alabama product, Tagovailoa’s production with and without him on the field has been surprising:
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Yards per attempt: 7.6 (with), 5.9 (without)
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Completion rate: 74.2%, 71.8%
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EPA per relapse: 0.21, -0.08
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TD:INT ratio: 13:2, 5:5
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Assessment of passers-by: 107.9, 81.2
Heat check 🔥 Fantasy managers in one-QB leagues can undoubtedly find better options in Week 16 with much less volatility. I’m in Tagovailoa, where I have better options.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are headed to Baltimore this week for their second annual meeting with the Ravens, meaning fantasy football managers should be on high alert for his potential low floor in a must-win week. Pittsburgh is coming off a terrible offensive performance against the Philadelphia Eagles – a game in which the Steelers didn’t have any leads and RB Najee Harris saw his lowest offensive share of the season at just 33%. Unfortunately, fantasy managers should expect more of the same again in Week 16, which could lead to another dud from Harris at a crucial position.
Not only will the Ravens’ stout defense give Harris fits — a top-seven unit in terms of YPC, yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed — but the game script will likely be an issue as well. Although the Steelers kept it close in their Week 11 meeting with Baltimore (final score 18-16), the team is dealing with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that could change their defensive outlook (DeShon Elliott, Donte Jackson) and the ability to keep pace with the offense (George Pickens).
According to Sport Radar, Harris has played just 37.2% of offensive snaps (when behind the snap) dating back to Week 10, compared to teammate Jaylen Warren who leads the team with a 50% offensive snap share in such circumstances. During that time, Warren has run 89 routes to Harris’ 62 as the preferred route back.
Heat check 🔥 Harris isn’t a must-start RB, but is more of a touchdown-dependent option in Week 16 after surpassing 12 fantasy points just once, dating back to Week 9.
RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
I’m not here to downplay the level of success we’ve seen from Rico Dowdle this season; Once the Cowboys committed to him as an RB1 and ended the Ezekiel Elliott experiment, he blossomed. Dowdle leads all running backs in rushing success rate through 15 weeks and is coming off his third straight game of over 100 rushing yards. All of which is to say he’s playing really solid football. However, the Week 16 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be a place for regression.
While the Bucs have been a fairly average defensive unit this year, opponents have generally had a hard time establishing the run – mainly because of the game script. The Buccaneers have faced the third-lowest run rate in the league at 36.2%, and have given up the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs on the field this year. Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys play from behind for most (if not all) of Week 16, which could impact Dowdle’s workload, lowering his overall ceiling in a critical week for fantasy managers.
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Heat check 🔥 Dowdle is averaging just under 10 fantasy points per game (half PPR) in losses this year, and the Cowboys are 4-point home underdogs with the potential for things to get out of hand fairly quickly against this Buccaneers offense. Dowdle has a relatively safe floor, but if you’re expected to be a big underdog in your matchup, he might be better off staying on the bench if you have a higher ceiling option elsewhere.
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Watch out, DK Metcalf. There’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After a relatively disappointing rookie campaign for JSN, he shined in the second half of the 2024 season after taking over the role of Seattle’s top target. Since Week 8, JSN leads the team with 57 targets, catching 48 for 675 receiving yards and 4 TDs – the WR4 in fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring formats during that span.
Unfortunately, between JSN’s breakout and a knee injury Metcalf endured this season, Metcalf’s fantasy ceiling was much lower than what managers would typically hope for. Metcalf hasn’t scored more than 10.5 fantasy points since returning from injury, with single-digit performances in seven of 12 games this year. Since the bye, JSN has been targeted on a higher percentage of his routes (20.4%) than Metcalf (17.6%), with a near-perfect passer rating when targeted (140.1) while posting 92.6 % of his targets caught.
Complicating matters for the Seahawks receivers in Week 16 is a possible limitation on Geno Smith, who left last week’s game due to a knee injury. Although he is left out of the injury report, if he is dealing with ongoing physical limitations it could impact the overall game plan, favoring the fast passing game to avoid any additional risk of unnecessary hits. JSN would be the biggest beneficiary of that type of game plan, usually closer to the line of scrimmage (9.3 yards aDOT) than Metcalf (13.8).
Heat check 🔥 Given Metcalf’s track record since JSN’s breakout and questions about his QB’s health, consider him a low-end flex play/borderline unstartable in most fantasy leagues despite his high name value.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Every interception of Cleveland Browns QB Jameis Winston in Week 15 had fantasy football managers holding their breath; After all, how many can he throw before he finds himself in Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s favor? The answer is apparently 12, as Cleveland has officially announced that DTR will begin in Week 16 — heartbreaking news for the fantasy managers who have taken advantage of Winston’s signature, usually inadvisable YOLO balls… and for Jerry Jeudy.
Jeudy’s already surpassed his previous career highs in receptions (70), receiving yards (1,052) and conversion rate (56.8%) per Pro Football Reference. There are two big factors that contributed to that success (aside from the traits that made Jeudy a top player to begin with): the departure of Amari Cooper in a trade to Buffalo in early October and Winston’s notoriously aggressive playing style.
While giving DTR the start in Week 16 gives the organization a chance to evaluate his future with the team (assuming they’ve seen enough from Winston), his production track record hasn’t been any better, with averaging a 3.7 YPA on 146 career attempts. with 1 TD and 7 INT to show for it.
Heat check 🔥 While Jeudy’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is an absolute dream, fantasy managers should consider him more of a flex option than a must-start in Week 16, knowing his floor is particularly low with DTR under center.
TE TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Since returning from a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season, TJ Hockenson has been disappointing overall, with just two weekly top-12 finishes at the position in seven games. He ranks 10th in targets per game (6.1) since Week 9, but a lack of touchdowns has left him TE17 in fantasy points per game, behind names like Noah Gray, Mike Gesicki, Theo Johnson and Austin Hooper, because he shouted out loud.
It doesn’t help that both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have blossomed in that span, combining for 39 red zone targets and 11 end zone targets since Week 9, compared to 10 and three, respectively, for Hockenson.
In Week 16, the Vikings will face the Seattle Seahawks, which could pose some challenges, especially for those working in the middle like Hockenson. Since the acquisition of LB Ernest Jones, the middle of the field has been a bit of a no-go for opposing units; Seattle ranks 23rd in fantasy points per game against opposing TEs and the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points over the past five games per Fantasy Points.
Heat check 🔥 Most fantasy managers won’t have the luxury of sitting on Hockenson this week, but if you have other options like a Jonnu Smith, Brenton Strange or another waiver wire gem, they might just offer more upside.
