With six teams bye in Week 12, fantasy football managers are faced with two major problems: having to rely on the top players they have avoided and the big players who have let them down week after week. . This is not a week for the faint of heart. The playoffs are just around the corner, and this week’s picks could make the difference between the playoffs or the consolation bracket.
We look at players from two perspectives this week: Bye Week Booms and Big Names with Big Problems.
Big names with big problems
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Heading into the season, I thought the Vikings would use Ty Chandler as a complementary defenseman to ensure Jones wasn’t overused. Aside from the challenges that life as a 29-year-old running back brings, Jones has never been much of a workhorse. He has been a back who produces as an RB1 within a committee. Instead of replicating this effective approach, the Vikings gave Jones significant volume.
Through 10 games, Jones has recorded 157 rushing attempts. If he continues at this pace, he will surpass his previous career record of 236 carries, which was way back in 2019. Earlier in the season, when his legs were fresher, Jones was explosive, efficient and effective. He has struggled significantly over the past four games, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and 9.2 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. This is in stark contrast to his first 10 games, where he averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 13.5 fantasy points per game. Realizing another back was needed, the Vikings traded for Cam Akers, who has recorded 23 carries over the past two games.
Will Jones to make or break your line-up in week 12?
Akers has been predictably inefficient, but the team continues to give him volume, likely in hopes of easing the pressure on Jones. Despite the addition of Akers, Jones is still seeing solid volume; he just doesn’t benefit from it anymore. This week he faces an advantageous matchup against the Chicago Bears. While the Bears’ defense has been strong overall, they are noticeably weaker against the run. Statistically, Jones should get a rushing touchdown in this game. Despite the difficulties, Jones was able to break through and have an RB1 week.
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Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, San Francisco 49ers
Before we dive into the numbers, let’s call it a name; Deebo Samuel Sr. looked downright awful.
It hasn’t been a season of perfect health for him, but that’s nothing new. Another common pattern for Samuel is his tendency to alternate between good and bad seasons. After a terrible 2022, Samuel admitted he was out of form and bounced back in 2023. Now, in 2024, it feels like we’re watching a repeat of 2022 – which inevitably means 2025 could be a recovery year, so make sure a comment on that… but we can’t wait for the 2025 recovery. We need Samuel now.
Will Samuel to make or break your line-up in week 12?
Samuel is a special talent and there is still time for him to turn things around this season, but it is difficult to trust him at the moment. He has clearly fallen behind George Kittle and Jauan Jennings and has just two total touchdowns this season. This week, Samuel faces a Green Bay defense that has generally been strong against the pass. On the one hand, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of his fast lead. On the other hand, it’s hard to believe he’ll provide strong receiving production this week. Samuel is yet another risky flex play with bust potential.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
If you’ve read my articles before, you know I’ve been pleasantly surprised with Pollard for most of the season. Unlike Samuel and Jones, Pollard has no issues with his performance despite being in a terrible attacking situation. Weeks 1 through 9, Pollard was a respectable RB22 in average points per game in half PPR, averaging 13.2 points. He ranked seventh in total carries and averaged 4.4 yards per carry.
However, much of his high volume earlier in the season was due to Tyjae Spears dealing with injuries. Over the past two weeks when Spears has been active, Pollard’s usage has dropped sharply. Pollard has had just nine carries in each of the past two games and has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Will Pollard to make or break your line-up in week 12?
The Titans have stated that they want to reduce Pollard’s workload, perhaps out of concern for his long-term effectiveness. While this makes him wildly unreliable for fantasy purposes, there is a potential silver lining. Spears is currently in a concussion protocol, and if he is unable to adapt, we could see the return of the old 20-30 touch version of Pollard. I worry long-term for Pollard in this offense, but if Spears is inactive, even with a less-than-ideal matchup, he offers RB1 upside.
Bye week booms
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Outside of his Week 1 start, Worthy is coming off his best performance of the year. He recorded four receptions on five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. What made this even more impressive was that it came against a stout Buffalo secondary. While Worthy had similar performances earlier in the season, this was the first week where he truly felt like the Chiefs’ WR1. Worthy felt like the star: consistent and ready for more. It’s starting to look like we could be on the brink of a rookie breakout in the second half of the season.
Fantasy managers understandably want to dive headfirst into it, especially when it comes to a matchup against a seemingly good matchup in the Panthers. However, the Panthers haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown since Week 6 (to Drake London). Volume is still possible, but the Panthers’ secondary appears to be developing and evolving in a positive direction.
Will Worthy to make or break your line-up in week 12?
I’m actually a little hesitant to lean against Worthy given the matchup. By comparison, the Panthers have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to opponents, but the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If I’m predicting the Chiefs’ offensive approach in this matchup, there’s no point in pushing an extremely high volume through the air. They will likely rely on their ground game, lean on their defense and limit Worthy’s involvement. He will likely see a maximum of five targets and will need a touchdown to have a productive day.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Bateman is having the best season of his career, surpassing all his previous highs in receiving yards and touchdowns. Unfortunately, his jump in production hasn’t come with consistency. To call it a lack of consistency would be to undermine this. He could finish as an overall WR2 one week and WR78 the next. He is a boom-or-bust player who relies heavily on touchdowns due to a lack of volume.
The good news is that Bateman’s boom games aren’t difficult to predict, as the Ravens’ offensive approach is fairly simple. Against weaker pass defenses, Baltimore tends to attack through the air and Bateman often thrives. His touchdowns this season came against Dallas, against both Cincinnati and Tampa Bay – all defenses with obvious struggles against the pass.
Will Bateman to make or break your line-up in week 12?
Bateman faces the Chargers who are very average against the pass, allowing the 16th to give the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Recently, they have been highlighted by big play receivers and even secondary receivers like Xavier Worthy and Calvin Austin III have had success against them. This match-up is shaping up as a strong opportunity for Bateman to deliver another big performance. It’s risky, but he’s a good addition to the bye week.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Whether it’s a coverage failure or not, I’m willing to give Jim Harbaugh Coach of the Year purely for taking Quentin Johnston from arguably one of the worst receivers in the league to a shockingly useful fantasy asset . That said, it feels a little awkward to lean completely against Johnston. A significant portion of his production comes from coverage breakdowns and it’s clear he still has some development to do.
Will Johnston to make or break your line-up in week 12?
Last week, Johnston caught two of his eight targets for 48 yards and scored a touchdown, providing another solid fantasy outing. However, his fantasy value remains heavily dependent on touchdowns. He has three touchdowns this season, finishing in the top 30 during those weeks. With Justin Herbert playing at an elite level, the Chargers have a great matchup against the Baltimore Ravens this week – a matchup in which Johnston could thrive. Johnston has legitimate flex value and could provide a week-winning advantage in Week 12 with his boom-bust nature.
