We’re approaching Christmas and I’m feeling a little traditional, so this week I decided to give you a list of make-or-break players at each position. included defense. A stocking stuffer in every position!
‘Tis the season for fantasy wonders and potential boom weeks that could take you to your fantasy championship!
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Traditionally we don’t think of him that way, but Stafford is pretty boom-or-bust by nature. It’s easy to miss because he’s an elite quarterback. However, Stafford’s lack of mobility means that to “make” your fantasy lineup, he’ll need more than 300 yards or a few touchdowns. If he throws an interception, can’t rack up 250 yards, or only manages one touchdown, you’re probably getting a low-end QB2 or worse. Stafford has played three games this season and finished QB30 or lower.
The Rams offense is either clicking on all cylinders or struggling. There’s usually no middle ground, hence their constant jostling in the NFC West. The last time we saw Stafford was in a messy, rainy Thursday night game against the 49ers. Stafford had just 16 completions for 160 yards and no touchdowns in a game where Cooper Kupp didn’t catch a single pass. To be fair, the conditions weren’t ideal and both quarterbacks struggled significantly.
Will Stafford to make or break your line-up in week 16?
We’re in for a Matt Stafford boom game, and at first glance, a matchup against the New York Jets seems like a less-than-ideal scenario. However, the Jets defense has been in a downward spiral since the firing of Robert Saleh. They have enabled strong performances for Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson.
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On the plus side, Aaron Rodgers is somewhat on the right track, meaning he should be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Rams defense and push it into a high-volume, back-and-forth game with one of the highest points. totals for the week. The only concern is that the game is set in New York, which means possible weather implications. As of now, the forecast is just cold and no bad weather is expected, so Stafford shouldn’t have any problems.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
With Nick Chubb out this season, Ford is the next man up. I discussed Ford in this week’s Pulse Check, summarizing his performance in Week 15 and his potential moving forward. Ford had a strong performance — the best Cleveland has seen in a while — as Chubb struggled on the ground and relied on touchdowns. Ford posted 84 rushing yards and a touchdown, including an electric 62-yard run, plus a pair of receptions.
Ideally, I’d like to have a week to see Ford in a clear leadership role — especially given Kevin Stefanski’s lack of commitment earlier this season — and evaluate how this offense plays out with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of time. It’s week 16 and we’re all in must-win scenarios. With a variety of injuries and disappointing performances from running backs around the league, many fantasy managers could look at Ford as a potential starter this week.
Will Ford to make or break your line-up in week 16?
While there are a lot of unknowns in this matchup, one thing is certain: Cincinnati’s defense is a complete mess. Running Backs have had notable success against them in recent weeks, so we can trust Ford to at least provide a low-end RB2 floor. It’s also worth noting that Ford has a decent upside, a crucial factor in the battle against the Bengals. Backs like Tyjae Spears, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren all thrived against them in receptions.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Going into the season, you could have guessed me a thousand times, and I never would have thought DK Metcalf would be a player I would see as a make-or-break candidate. Unfortunately, he has failed to crack the top 30 at receiver since returning from injury and has posted double-digit fantasy points just once. To be fair, this hasn’t been an easy stretch of matchups, but the bigger problem is that while Metcalf has struggled, Jackson Smith-Njigba has essentially taken over the role of the WR1.
After Smith-Njigba’s breakthrough in Week 9 against the Rams, he was the opposite of Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has posted at least 10 fantasy points in every game since Metcalf’s return and never finished lower than WR34. Five games is enough of a sample size to suggest we may be witnessing a changing of the guard and a shift in offensive philosophy, leaving Metcalf as the secondary option on an inconsistent offense.
Will Metcalf to make or break your line-up in week 16?
In the past, Geno Smith has had no issues providing volume to multiple receivers. During this stretch, however, Smith has failed to surpass 250 passing yards or throw multiple touchdowns in a game. There simply isn’t enough volume to go around, and Metcalf is the one suffering.
Looking at the Week 16 matchup against Minnesota, there are a number of ways this could play out. Minnesota’s defense has been stout this year, but they do allow volume. While quarterbacks aren’t exactly ideal against the Vikings, wide receivers can still thrive. While Metcalf has had a shaky bottom, I think he’s leaning more toward scoring double-digit fantasy points this week, making him less of a bust risk based purely on volume and potential game flow.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson returned from injury and while Luke Schoonmaker did an admirable job in his absence, Ferguson is clearly the TE1 in Dallas. Unfortunately, holding that title hasn’t translated into production. Since his strong showing in Week 9 against Atlanta, Ferguson has gone from being a fairly reliable TE1 option to failing to finish in the top 20 at the position.
It’s probably no coincidence that Week 9 was the last time we saw Dak Prescott under center. It’s possible that Cooper Rush and Ferguson just aren’t a good fit. The bigger problem, however, is Rush’s lower pass volume compared to Prescott and Dallas’ fairly average target distribution to tight ends. Low volume plus average distribution equates to a mediocre TE2.
Will Ferguson to make or break your line-up in week 16?
Ferguson has repeatedly dropped in my rankings, but he gets a slight boost this week, thanks to a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. Tampa has always been one of the most generous defenses against passing attacks, including tight ends. The sixth-most fantasy points are allowed to go to the position this season.
That said, we still need to be careful. Even in prime matchups like Cincinnati and Carolina, the Cowboys haven’t pushed significant volume with Rush at quarterback. While a high-volume game is unlikely for Ferguson, a touchdown and favorable play make him a viable option this week.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST
We have a special treat this week: for the first time, I’m including a defense in this article!
With so many shaky backup quarterbacks finding themselves in starting roles across the league, several intriguing streaming defenses have emerged as top-12 options. Fantasy managers face some tough choices in Week 16: Do you trust a traditionally strong defense like Kansas City, facing a Houston offense that is inconsistent but can lead to explosive play? Or do you take a risk with a lower-rated defense with an excellent matchup against a turnover-prone quarterback?
Indianapolis’ defense was a mixed bag. They have allowed the twelfth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but the tenth least to wide receivers. Against running backs, they have given up the eighth-most fantasy points, although Joe Mixon has been responsible for much of that damage, and they have generally faced strong backfields. While I expect Tony Pollard to take advantage of this matchup if he is active, the damage he does on the court won’t be enough to negate Mason Rudolph’s potential for multiple turnovers.
Want Indianapolis to make or break your line-up in week 16?
Ideally, we’d like to see Will Levis in this spot, but Rudolph will do. Rudolph has thrown at least one interception in every game he has started this season, for a total of five interceptions and just six touchdowns. In just three starts and two partial games, he has also fumbled four times. Fantasy managers looking for quality streaming defenses with the potential to generate revenue — and perhaps even a glorious pick six — should look to Indianapolis this week.
