It’s Week 17 — the title game for most fantasy managers! In this week’s article, we have one quarterback and multiple flex plays who have shown upside in the past, but a lack of reliability throughout the season with volatile production and unclear pecking orders. Are we taking risks with these players in week 17? Who can we trust?
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
It feels fitting that the Week 17 make-or-break article would feature the receiver who finished as an overall WR1 in Week 1 but quickly blossomed into one of the most extreme volatility receivers in the NFL. Reed has the potential to finish as an overall WR1 or post zero fantasy points in any given week.
Over the past two weeks, Reed has certainly provided a more stable floor with 10 fantasy points in Week 16 against New Orleans and nine fantasy points in Week 15 against Seattle. However, the lack of touchdowns continues to limit his lead.
The offense runs aggressively through Josh Jacobs and has been very effective. It’s fair to expect them to stick to that game script. From a fantasy perspective, however, one problem Green Bay faces – and a potential advantage for us – is that attacking Minnesota on the spot hasn’t been the most effective strategy. Jacobs could still have a strong game, but Minnesota’s offense often forces opponents to increase the passing volume to keep pace.
We saw this earlier in the season when the Packers and Vikings faced off in Week 4. That game featured a total of 60 points, with the Vikings allowing 389 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to Jordan Love, both season highs. Notably, that was Jayden Reed’s second-best game of the season. He caught seven of eight targets for 139 yards and a touchdown and finished as the overall WR2.
Will Reed to make or break your line-up in week 17?
While the Packers’ offensive identity has changed since that game, another high-volume game from both sides is a reasonable expectation. Reed can match up well against the Vikings defense, and the mediocre, disappointing performances we’ve endured could ultimately lead to a huge ceiling play for him.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
My favorite make-or-break player of the week is Bryce Young. He has his best performance of the season, scoring 27.12 fantasy points and finishing as the overall QB2. While his passing volume wasn’t high (he only threw for 158 yards), his quick upside continued to drive his fantasy production. He had three total touchdowns to end the Arizona Cardinals’ season.
Carolina is often written off as a bad team, but they have clearly improved in the second half of the season. While Young still has areas to develop, he offers top-10 upside in a fantastic matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.
We recently saw this game in Week 13, and unlike last week’s game against a solid Arizona defense, the Tampa Bay game was all about volume. In that matchup, he attempted a season-high 46 passes, throwing for 298 yards and one passing touchdown, while adding another score on the ground. He finished as QB8, but there is room for even more production this time around.
Will Jong to make or break your line-up in week 17?
In the Week 13 match, Young completed only 26 of those 46 attempts. Adam Thielen had a fantastic game, but the rest of the receiving corps underperformed. It was notable that Jalen Coker was absent from that game. While Coker is a volatile option, his presence rounds out the receiving corps and provides additional firepower against the Tampa defense. Young is one of my favorite streaming options this week, with a strong chance of high-volume performance and top-10 advantage.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Bronocs
The most frustrating part for any fantasy manager unlucky enough to draft Williams is figuring out if he really is the RB1 in the Broncos’ offense on a week-to-week basis. The problem, as we’ve discussed before, is the complete lack of consistency in Denver’s backroom.
Last week was a good example of this. After being virtually invisible for several games, Audric Estimé suddenly split with Williams on the first drive and even scored the touchdown on the goal line. Williams was not injured or ineffective; he didn’t do anything wrong, but he only recorded two carries from that point on. Estimé mainly handled the early work, while Williams was relegated to a receiving role.
That receiving role did lead to seven catches on eleven targets, which is impressive. However, it only amounted to 29 yards, leaving Williams with just nine fantasy points in half-PPR formats. If you’ve been following this column all season, you know that when Williams shows up here, it’s usually to avoid him altogether. However, a game against Cincinnati might change my tune.
Will Williams to make or break your line-up in week 17?
Last week we discussed the confidence in Jerome Ford in a layup matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Browns’ offense was certainly risky with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Bengals’ defense is simply too good to pass up. Despite Cleveland only scoring six points, Ford finished RB9 overall. Williams can benefit from the matchup, but we have to recognize his situation as well a lot of different from Ford’s. Ford was a clear lead, volume play. Williams’ volume is no guarantee.
To be clear, I still feel very uncomfortable recommending Williams as a novice. That said, this game profiles as high scoring, with an expected point total of 49.5. Strong attacking on both ends, potential goal-line opportunities and Williams’ edge make him a viable, if risky, player this week.
Tank Bigsby & Travis Etienne Jr., RBs, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, but can we trust a running back from Jacksonville this week? The Jaguars’ backfield was frustratingly basic; there’s no real leadback and the volume is split fairly evenly between Bigsby and Etienne.
However, there are exceptions, and one of them came in the last match between these two teams. In that game, Bigsby recorded 18 carries, compared to just four for Etienne. However, from a fantasy perspective, their results were not significantly different. Bigsby scored 13 fantasy points (RB19), while Etienne had nine (RB28).
This split in the backfield is frustrating because it covers both players’ ceilings yet provides a surprisingly low floor. Consistently landing in the 5-12 fantasy point range. Both are talented and explosive, but they exist firmly in flex territory, much like Javonte Williams.
Will Bigsby or Etienne to make or break your line-up in week 17?
While the previous game between the Jaguars and Titans was disappointing, I have slightly higher expectations for Jacksonville’s offense this week. Mac Jones has settled into his starting role and while the team remains disappointing overall, they have moved the ball well enough to produce a slight uptick in production. The game script should remain relatively close, which benefits Bigsby.
Tennessee’s defense has allowed more than 90 rushing yards to the opponent’s lead in three straight games. If nothing else, volume should provide a decent floor. Cross your fingers for a touchdown to push Bigsby or Etienne into a more productive fantasy outing.
