Shifting perspectives and changing roles are major themes on this week’s make-or-break list. As we get closer to the end of the fantasy season, we think we know the majority of the players and what to expect from them in the future. However, it’s not always as clear cut as you might think and matchups aren’t the only problem. Sometimes we need to adjust our expectations of players and offenses to truly understand players’ potential, or lack thereof.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
I don’t often take quarterbacks, but Bo Nix was in the make-or-break column last week. I highlighted his potential upside in a surprisingly favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, and he performed like the QB12 this week. This week I want to discuss Maye with a similar thought process: that Maye can still thrive even in a less than ideal match.
When Maye took over as the official starter in Week 6, it was messy but very productive from a fantasy perspective. He finished as QB8 against Houston and QB7 against Jacksonville. Since then, Maye has experienced rookie woes. To be fair, this battle involved some very formidable pass defenses including the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears, with the Jets matchup being the week he missed most of the game due to injury.
All things considered, Maye has been solid. While his passing was inconsistent, his rushing ability provided a reliable floor. This week he faces a promising matchup against the LA Rams.
Will Maye to make or break your line-up in week 11?
The Rams’ defense is vulnerable, especially their secondary, but their pass rush has improved as the season has progressed. The Rams have made a big bet on young talent, and while it took time to adjust to the NFL and find their feet, they have become a more aggressive pass-rushing unit. A young, aggressive rush against a shaky offensive line could spell trouble, and Maye may not have the time he needs to fully utilize the secondary.
That said, if Maye is forced to jump out of the pocket, it bodes well for his rapid upward movement. While the Rams’ defensive line could make this a tough matchup, Maye still offers a strong upside as a streaming option, especially for fantasy teams that need to take a risk and get a win.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
I have live Q&A every week on Yahoo’s social channels and during my live session on Tuesday this week I was asked a very timely question: when will Nick Chubb Nick Chubb?
Fantasy executives welcomed Chubb back with open arms. With memories of the good old days, we always knew what to expect from Nick Chubb: a high workload, high yardage, strong yards per carry and touchdowns. While expectations were dampened after a significant injury, Chubb’s return was fruitless from a fantasy perspective. Some of this can be attributed to the overall struggles of the Cleveland offense, but the numbers tell a clear story: Chubb has yet to surpass 52 rushing yards, has just one touchdown, averages 2.69 yards per carry and has no receiving edge . He has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in half PPR.
In fairness, his last two games have been against Baltimore and the LA Chargers. The Chargers have been consistently strong against the run and the Ravens have shut down running backs all season. In fact, Chubb’s 52 yards were the most of any back against the Ravens this season.
Despite these challenges, fantasy managers remain optimistic that Chubb, in the perfect fit, can return to form. This week offers great potential.
Will Chubb to make or break your line-up in week 11?
Although his snap count wasn’t particularly high, Chubb dominated touches out of the backfield. The opportunity is there; the only question is whether he can take advantage of this in an excellent matchup. This week he faces a Saints defense that has been lit up by running backs this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. It’s also crucial to note that it doesn’t take top talent to increase these points. Sean Tucker’s one-week wonder and Javonte Williams’ lone RB1 appearance both came against New Orleans. This is the perfect fit for Chubb to deliver his breakout performance of the season.
Audric Estimé, RB, Denver Broncos
The tide is turning in Denver, and certainly not in favor of the aforementioned Javonte Williams. The Broncos didn’t hide their intentions when discussing Estimé recently, saying his workload would increase as the season progressed. Most expected a gradual increase, but Sean Payton surprised everyone by completely turning around Denver’s backfield in Week 10. Estimé had 14 carries for 53 yards, while Williams had just one carry for one yard and Jaleel McLaughlin had four carries for 12 yards. Estimé’s snap count wasn’t significantly high, but he did beat Williams.
Estimé was not targeted in the passing game, while Williams appeared to be the favored target with two receptions on two targets. While it’s not much, it’s something to keep an eye on as Estimé needs some upside to be a reliable RB2. There is one positive sign, though: Estimé has completed a similar number of routes to Williams, so we could see his game evolve as the season progresses.
Will estimate to make or break your line-up in week 11?
This week’s match is risky. The Falcons allow volume on running backs, but rushing touchdowns are rare — only Kenneth Walker and Alvin Kamara have scored rushing touchdowns against them. While Estimé may see good volume, with no touchdown potential and limited receiving upside, he is an extremely risky play.
There is also the question of whether or not we can trust Sean Payton. This wouldn’t be the first time a running back saw a sudden spike in carries, only for Payton to turn things around the following week. I trust Estimé has a real chance to keep the lead role, but I think we need another week before we can really rely on anyone in the Broncos’ game.
JK Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Gus Edwards is back and fantasy managers are now faced with a difficult situation in the Chargers’ backfield. In weeks 6 through 9, while Edwards was on IR, Dobbins was the clear lead. During that stretch, Dobbins was the RB13 in half PPR, averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game with two top-12 finishes. Edwards’ return has significantly reduced Dobbins’ volume. He had just 15 carries for 50 yards and three receptions for five yards, compared to Edwards’ 10 carries for 55 yards.
Will Dobbins to make or break your line-up in week 11?
While his performance was disappointing from a fantasy perspective, Dobbins still has the edge in this backfield and should continue to see the bulk of the carries. Edwards doesn’t contribute to the passing game, and when both are healthy, Dobbins has seen goal-line opportunities, so there’s no reason to expect Dobbins to be removed from the backfield when the Chargers are near the end zone.
While Dobbins’ volume is in jeopardy, the Chargers have a favorable matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, with a projected point total of 47. This matchup should be in Dobbins’ favor, but with Edwards back, Dobbins is on make-or-break area. Still, his receiving advantage and Week 11’s advantageous matchup lean somewhat in his favor.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
I discussed DJ Moore in my Sunday Pulse Check article, so it should come as no surprise that he’s a true make-or-break player – emphasis during the break. Let’s not bury the lead here: Chicago’s pass catchers are unreliable across the board.
We gave the Chicago offense the benefit of the doubt and were lulled into optimism before their bye week, when they faced favorable matchups that allowed Caleb Williams to flourish. Reality has set in again, and over the last three weeks Moore hasn’t surpassed five fantasy points in half-PPR formats, with his best mark at WR55. We are in a difficult situation with Moore; his target share has been disappointing and inconsistent as Rome Odunze continues to emerge in Chicago’s receiving corps.
Will Moore to make or break your line-up in week 11?
When each receiver gets a fairly equal share of targets, this offense is unlikely to be productive from a fantasy perspective. Positive changes may be coming, as the Bears rightfully fired Shane Waldron. But can firing Waldron really solve the offensive problems?
It seems highly unlikely. Although Waldron’s vision was flawed, Chicago’s offensive line continues to struggle, limiting Williams’ effectiveness. Right now, Moore is a boom-bust player, and the boom seems like a rare occurrence. This week he faces a Packers defense that has been a turnover machine and is relatively strong against the pass. Moore is off to a very risky start this week moving forward.
