This week’s Make or Break article focuses on one key aspect of success for borderline players: opportunity. Volume is king in fantasy football and when it’s your time for more opportunities, can you take advantage of it?
I’ve got two running backs and a wide receiver plus two tight ends with intriguing prospects this week – and some potentially creative uses that could give you a league-winning advantage.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Just as we were starting to gain more confidence in Javonte Williams, he hit us with a seven fantasy point performance in what should have been an excellent game against the Panthers. The problem wasn’t opportunity. Williams had 17 carries and four receptions. They only yielded 52 total yards and he was outscored by Jaleel McLaughlin, who gained more rushing yards on half of the carries and added a touchdown.
This brings with it uncomfortable flashbacks to the beginning of the season, when Williams constantly seemed on the verge of losing his job and was significantly underperforming. However, I don’t expect a sudden change in the number of snaps or touches. Even when McLaughlin outperformed Williams in previous games, Sean Payton never turned away from Williams. Still, it’s a bit concerning, especially considering this week’s game against a Baltimore Ravens defense that was vulnerable against the pass and tough against the run. Last week, Nick Chubb became the first back to surpass 50 rushing yards this year on the Ravens – gaining 52 yards on 16 attempts.
Will Williams to make or break your line-up in week 9?
While the efficiency stats favor McLaughlin, who has the edge over rusher above expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos are clearly trusting Williams more in pass protection and receiving work, which could soften the blow of what is a day with a low meter. in a terrible matchup. The run game could be sidelined and Williams can rely on check-downs to save his fantasy day.
But a player whose day depends solely on check-downs is a high-risk, low-reward game.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders offense is shaky at best. Aside from Brock Bowers, we’re generally very hesitant to lean into Vegas fantasy assets. However, Meyers is a player who is generally overlooked.
The cash-strapped nature of the Raiders’ quarterback situation masks the fact that Meyers actually had a decent season. Meyers currently has WR30 in points per game average, which equates to 10.4 fantasy points per game – which may not seem like much, but from a perspective perspective, that’s comparable to players like Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and DJ Moore.
Overall, Meyers has had a great year; it just doesn’t have that brand name. In games without Davante Adams, Meyers has seen a small increase in volume, but that was difficult to gauge because the games were against Cleveland, Denver and Kansas City. This week he gets a much-needed break in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Will Meijers to make or break your line-up in week 9?
The Bengals defense was a bit all over the place, but they are vulnerable in the air. Despite how inconsistent the Bengals offense has been, I fully expect them to take advantage of this matchup, forcing the Raiders to abandon the run and push volume through the air. This week combines the perfect scenario for volume and a good matchup, which could easily result in Meyers’ best performance of the year.
Technically, there’s little chance of Meyers actually breaking your lineup. Even with the quarterback issues, his target share makes a fantasy performance under five points unlikely. However, with the increased ceiling this week, you should take advantage of the high upside opportunities.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome back to the Make or Break list, Chase Brown!
We missed you and honestly you probably should never have left. Watching the Bengals backfield this season has personally been one of the most frustrating experiences for me. Brown’s progression was expected. We knew coming in that Zack Moss was viewed as the leading defenseman and Brown started the season taking a backseat to him. The vision here was that as the season progressed, Brown would continue to improve, possibly outperform Moss and ultimately rise as the Bengals’ lead.
Unfortunately, Brown’s rise appears to have stalled at a level he simply can’t break through, largely because the Bengals refuse to phase out Moss. Their reluctance is baffling – perhaps neither of them want to overwhelm – but advanced statistics clearly favor Brown. He has a higher than expected rush rate at 41.6% (Next Gen Stats), while Moss is at a modest 28.6%. Brown also boasts a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, compared to Moss’ 3.3. Neither back has a significant advantage in receiving work out of the backfield, leaving us in a bit of a no man’s land where neither has a high ceiling unless the other suffers an injury.
Will Brown to make or break your line-up in week 9?
In an ideal matchup, both backs could have an advantage. We saw it in Week 4 against Carolina, where Brown posted 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Moss added 51 rushing yards and caught a receiving touchdown. This week’s matchup is against a Raiders defense that has been generous on the ground, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. There should be plenty of goal line opportunities in this game.
If there’s a week where Brown can show the ceiling we saw in Week 4, it would be this week.
Tight ends: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars; Cade Oton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know what you’re thinking: “But Tera, how can Engram and Oton be make-or-break players when they’re literally top 10 tight ends right now?”
Well, we’re not here to talk about Engram and Oton as a make-or-break-tight goal. We’re here to talk about it as make-or-break bend options.
Yes! A dual tight end strategy this week, one of my personal DFS favorites that can be applied just as effectively in seasonal leagues.
The point is, if you drafted someone like Travis Kelce or Trey McBride, you probably don’t have a secondary option on your roster. However, fantasy managers with Engram or Oton likely have other tight ends scheduled. If you drafted Engram, you planned for him to be your TE1, but you had to choose another option while he was dealing with an injury. Maybe you picked up Tucker Kraft, so now you’re left with two top 10 options.
If you have Otton, you probably didn’t draft him but picked him up recently, possibly due to poor performance from your draft tight end or to take advantage of Otton’s rising upside.
Both players have the potential to be flex-worthy options this week.
Will Engram and Otton to make or break your line-up in week 9?
With receiver injuries widespread this season, dual tight end lineups could become more common. I personally bowed Oton last week when I started Brock Bowers. We know Oton has a significant advantage and will likely be Baker Mayfield’s first appearance in the coming weeks. With Christian Kirk lost this season and Brian Thomas Jr. was dealing with an injury – although the latest update on Thomas suggests the injury is less serious than feared – Engram should see more value this week. We’ve seen the logic with Oton, but if you need supporting evidence with Engram, we can look at last season.
In 2023, we saw plenty of evidence that Kirk’s absence is an extreme advantage for Ingram. When Kirk was injured in Week 13 last season, Ingram exploded and became the overall TE1 from Weeks 13 through 18, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. For context, that’s the same number George Kittle is averaging this season.
In terms of other positions, a 15.2 average would make Ingram WR7 or RB12 this season. His ceiling without Kirk is phenomenal. Oton and Engram figure as strong flex options that could make your lineup this week.
