We’re finally past the bye weeks and into the fantasy playoffs! Last week, with six teams on a bye, we relied on low-end, inconsistent players, hoping they could take advantage of good matchups. This week there are no restrictions and we are faced with difficult choices and trust issues. Will big names last?
Can flashy talent put up week-winning stats in good matchups?
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
I honestly never thought we’d reach a make-or-break point with Reed, but I think we’ve been in denial. We easily recognize players like Amari Cooper as boom-or-bust by nature, but overlook Reed as one of the most volatile receivers in the league. Right now, he has both the talent and the quarterback to finish as an overall WR1 on any given week, even in tough games.
On the other hand, he is also capable of delivering absolutely nothing.
Reed is just coming off a game with no fantasy points — no receptions on just one target. Knowing the potential pitfalls of the Packers’ receiving corps heading into the season, we were hoping Reed would break out and separate himself from the pack. While he is clearly the WR1, from a fantasy perspective he doesn’t have the consistent impact or volume of top options. Reed has only one game this season with more than six goals.
He can create high yardage on limited opportunities and make big plays, but he is extremely dependent on touchdowns. Reed has three 100-yard games – a decent total, especially considering two of those games were without Jordan Love. However, he also has eight games with 50 yards or less.
Will Reed to make or break your line-up in week 15?
This week, Reed faces a Seattle defense that is inconsistent against the pass. While as a group they don’t give up significant points to opposing wide receivers, at least one receiver typically has a strong fantasy performance against them. Reed could definitely be that guy who takes off. However, the Packers could still rely heavily on Josh Jacobs. Reed remains an extremely risky option.
When you get started, understand that there is no middle ground.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Week 14 was extremely disappointing for Keenan Allen. He managed just three receptions for 30 yards and finished WR55 in half PPR – a major disappointment after two consecutive top-10 finishes. Now fantasy managers must ask the big question: What was the anomaly: the two top-10 finishes or last week’s disastrous performance?
We’ve seen more WR55-like performances this year than top-10 finishes from Allen. However, if you attribute those boom games to random game scripts, then that’s where this week’s conflict lies. If his success depends solely on the game script, this week’s matchup against Minnesota should work in his favor. In Week 12 against Minnesota, Allen had one of his top-10 performances, catching nine of 15 targets (a season-high) for 86 yards and a touchdown. In that game, DJ Moore also finished as a top-10 receiver.
Will Allen to make or break your line-up in week 15?
Looking at the previous match, the match was competitive: Chicago played from behind for most of the match, but stayed within range and eventually forced overtime. The match took place in Chicago, but the weather was not a factor. With Caleb Williams’ offensive improvements, it is reasonable to expect a similar outcome.
It’s hard to trust Allen — believe me, I’m currently debating starting him in the Scott Fish Bowl — but this matchup presents an opportunity with a high ceiling. Given the success Allen had in the previous game, we can reasonably expect a similar approach and possibly lean on Allen in this one.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Denver is coming, and Week 13 was the last week we saw Javonte Williams…although you probably forgot he even played given his statistical line of four carries for one yard. Yes, that’s an average of 0.25 yards per carry. He did score a touchdown, but since that touchdown yielded almost all of his fantasy points, he could barely save the day.
The Broncos’ run game has been completely inconsistent in terms of usage over the past month. In Week 13, it was Jaleel McLaughlin who unexpectedly led the backfield with 14 carries. In Week 12, Williams led the way, but only managed eight carries for -2 yards. In week 11, Williams was also the lead back, but in week 10, Audric Estimé had the leading role.
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Across the entire backfield, the Broncos have only fielded two RB1 appearances all season.
Will Williams to make or break your line-up in week 15?
This week’s game against Indianapolis looks promising for running backs. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, making them a defense we’ve focused on all season. However, it’s almost impossible to trust Williams when we can’t even guarantee he’ll be the lead back.
This is more of a Hail Mary, cross your fingers and hope situation. Williams has a legitimate floor of one fantasy point. At this point, I can name more than a handful of backup running backs that I trust more than Williams — and ironically, none of them are on his team.
Kind regards, McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s official! McCormick is the Raiders’ new lead back. If you follow my early waiver wire series – which appears every Sunday afternoon – you were ahead of the curve and took McCormick before this week, speculating that he would eventually get the lead.
Unfortunately, McCormick doesn’t yet meet the minimum attempts for Next Gen Stats, so we can’t directly compare him to the rest of the Raiders backfield. However, Alexander Mattison has one of the worst rush yards per attempt in the league and hasn’t posted a single RB1 finish in 2024. He is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry – the worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, McCormick is shining as the team’s best back this season, and it’s not even close.
McCormick has been excellent on the ground but has yet to find the end zone – not entirely his fault. Last week, Aiden O’Connell recorded the Raiders’ first rushing touchdown since Week 9. The bigger problem is that the Raiders offense isn’t moving the ball well enough to create consistent opportunities in the red zone.
Will McCormick to make or break your line-up in week 15?
We know McCormick is the frontrunner and this week’s matchup against Atlanta is favorable. The Falcons tend to allow run volume, as evidenced by their performance against Denver. Even that dysfunctional Broncos backfield got 17 fantasy points from Javonte Williams, one of his two RB1 finishes this season.
McCormick’s lack of work limits his ceiling, but he’s a very intriguing option this week: a safe low-end RB2 with potential upside if he can finally score his first touchdown of the season.
Injury bonus: Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
When I discuss players and injury situations, it’s usually about someone benefiting from increased volume due to the absence of a teammate. This week I want to quickly touch on Tillman’s potential as he plays.
Tillman’s last complete game came in Week 11, when he recorded three receptions on eight targets for 47 yards. He operated as the Browns’ WR1 for three games following the departure of Amari Cooper. Jerry Jeudy had seen a consistent role with a solid floor, but Tillman showed great upside in that stretch. His breakout performance in Week 11 included six receptions on 11 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. That game kicked off a hot streak that saw Tillman finish as WR4, WR21, WR1 and WR17 over the next few weeks.
Will Tilman to make or break your line-up in week 15?
If Tillman returns this week, Jeudy would likely remain the presumed WR1. However, the game against Kansas City is very favorable for passing. Cleveland’s defense has struggled and Kansas City should exploit those weaknesses. With Nick Chubb still struggling with volume, Cleveland will likely take another pass-heavy approach, creating plenty of opportunities for Tillman to provide strong flex value.
