It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill is the WR41st in fantasy points per game this season, and the return of Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t helped as expected. The Dolphins shockingly have the second-lowest WR target share this season (49.1%). Running back De’Von Achane led Miami in first-read target% on Monday night, as Hill was tied for third with tight end Jonnu Smith.
Hill has four times as many games with fewer than 25 receiving yards than the last two seasons combined. Tagovailoa is ranked 36th in the percentage of deep throw attempts (7.7%). He recently passed Patrick Mahomes with the lowest average intended air yards (5.4) of any quarterback this season. Hill has taken a backseat to an offense that no longer throws deep (or scores as many points), and a wrist injury could help explain that.
Hill’s wrist has reportedly been bothering him since training camp (and worsened during his arrest), and the initial MRI showed a torn ligament. It could contribute to his declining route winning percentage this season. Hill’s fantasy managers are certainly panicking given the new news of fouls and injuries.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb has kept up fantasy production with Cooper Rush in the past, but his first game this season was a disaster. Rush lost as many fumbles (2.0) as he conceded meters per attempt. It was the fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. Rush finished with an above-expectation completion percentage (-13.5) in the eighth percentile, despite an average target depth of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Lamb’s 10 goals resulted in 21 scoreless yards, including the loss of a touchdown in the sun.
Trey Lance wasn’t much better as he picked up two sacks and was picked off on six pass attempts as Dallas finished with 32 net passing yards. Dak Prescott is officially out for the season. A move to Lance would be a disaster for Lamb’s fantasy value, but Rush remains the starter in Week 11.
Lamb’s “expert consensus rank” this week is WR15, because it’s hard to go too much lower for a player who has led the NFL in target share since Week 4. But Lamb’s new situation (and shrug) has fantasy managers in hot water. corner (he’s now a WR2).
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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams won’t be in many starting fantasy lineups these days, but managers are still hoping for the life of Chicago’s pass catchers. And from a bigger perspective, there is real concern about the future of this year’s No. 1 draft pick. Williams is having one of the worst QB seasons in recent memory, ranking last among 106 quarterbacks in make-able throws as of 2021. He also ranks last in pressure-to-sack ratio over that period.
Chicago’s offensive line has been average in pass blocking, while Williams has the highest average time to pressure in the league. When Williams isn’t pressed, he ranks 31st in success rate. He has the worst completion percentage on throws of more than 15 yards among the 468 QBs over the past 15 years. Williams’ first nine career starts haven’t been as bad as Bryce Young’s or David Carr’s, but he’s right in their territory.
Williams has had to deal with the third-easiest schedule-adjusted QB schedule to date! And he gets the eighth hardest step forward. When not facing Jacksonville or Carolina defenses that rank third in EPA/pass this season, Williams is averaging 179.3 passing yards (5.3 YPA!) with just three touchdown passes through seven games. The Bears fired OC Shane Waldron, and even the discussion about benching Williams is shocking for someone with his college resume. Some veteran teammates are reportedly calling for Tyson Bagent.
The Bears’ offense ranks last in yards per drive, EPA/dropback, sacks allowed, and touchdowns allowed since their Week 7 bye. Chicago hasn’t produced a top-20 performance at Wide Receiver since Week 6, and DJ Moore has only put up one all season. D’Andre Swift has also suffered from Williams’ issues, as his splits in wins (108.6 yards from scrimmage, 0.75 TDs) versus losses (72.0 YFS, 0.2 TDs) have been dramatic.
Williams clearly still has a lot of time to improve, and a complete coaching overhaul this offseason could help with that. But his NFL start has been very concerning, and there’s no chance New England or Washington would trade QBs now.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas Jr. has seen his targets drop by half while averaging just 17.0 yards receiving through two games since suffering a pectoral injury. He was also affected by Mac Jones’ takeover at QB last week, which could continue for the remainder of the season, as Trevor Lawrence dealt with a significant shoulder injury. Jones posted a paltry 4.5 YPA against a Minnesota defense last week, allowing the seventh-most passing yards. Jones targeted tight ends on 59% of his passes, which isn’t ideal for the rookie wideout. While Lawrence isn’t the prince we were promised, he still leads the league in end zone goals (after missing a game), and Jones is a notable downgrade.
Thomas ranks top 10 in yards per route and sixth in fantasy points per target as a rookie, but his leap to fantasy stardom may have to wait until next season.
JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins’ weighted odds share dropped to 56.5% last week thanks to the return of Gus Edwards. He and Edwards both had 10 carries before Dobbins picked up the final five. On the plus side, Dobbins recorded his highest route participation percentage (74%) and target share (17%) of the season while registering 18 touches.
Dobbins was also unlucky last week when he was tackled on the one-yard line and watched Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins score shorthandedly. But Edwards (or Haskins?) could be a problem at the goal line, and Dobbins has managed just 3.5 YPC since Week 3 when he returned from Achilles surgery. Dobbins remains an RB2, but Edwards’ return is a blow to his fantasy value.
