It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
Samuel Sr. would see a spike in production with Brandon Aiyuk out, but he is the WR47 in fantasy points per game through four games since BA went down. It’s possible the lingering effects of pneumonia contributed to Samuel’s disappointing box scores, but either way he’s leaving fantasy managers panicking. Samuel has -20% more fantasy points than expected this season and remained quiet last week even with George Kittle also out. He took a backseat to Jauan Jennings; Samuel has a target first-read share of 23.9% over the past two weeks, compared to 41.3% for Jennings.
Brock Purdy is now dealing with a sore shoulder, which adds another concern. Additionally, Samuel is less likely to be carried in the red zone with Christian McCaffrey returning to action. Samuel will likely have peak weeks, but the explosive plays haven’t been there, and Jennings has emerged as San Francisco’s clear No. 1 WR.
Samuel hasn’t seen more than seven goals in a game since Week 2 and has only finished in the top 10 once this season. Samuel is still the WR15 in this week’s expert consensus ranks, but his fantasy managers are likely losing hope.
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Jayden Daniels, Washington commanders
Daniels averaged 10.5 rush attempts, 53.7 rush yards and 0.7 rush TDs over six games before suffering a rib injury. Since then, he has averaged 6.5 rush attempts, 27.5 rush yards and 0 rush TDs over four games. However, Daniels’ opponents have three defenses in the top four in QB fantasy points allowed over that span, including perhaps the league’s hottest defense from last week. Those defenses have also limited QB rushes, and Dan Quinn has insisted Daniels doesn’t play injured.
Daniels’ schedule looks much more favorable going forward, so his recent slump (he’s been the QB21 in ppg over the last four weeks since the injury) could provide an opportunity to buy low if your league’s trade deadline hasn’t passed yet .
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Nabers is the WR40 in fantasy points per game since returning from a concussion in Week 7. He already has the second-most unrealized air yards (596) in the league, and now the Giants are turning to Tommy DeVito at quarterback. While Daniel Jones was a problem, the move was financially motivated (possibly as was the decision to bypass Drew Lock), so there are concerns that Nabers’ situation has become even worse.
DeVito’s 6.2 YPA is close enough to Jones’ 6.5, but New York’s new QB owns a bag percentage of 17.2% and a lower ADOT. DeVito averaged just 172 passing yards and 0.9 TDs in five games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps last year, but Jones averaged just 191 passing yards without Nabers last season, so perhaps the downgrade won’t be significant.
Nabers hasn’t seen a single target in the red zone since Week 4, so there’s an argument that things can’t possibly get any worse. Nabers is in first place by a mile in ESPN’s Open Score; his grade is 99, and second-best is 89. Additionally, the Giants go from the league’s 12th-toughest WR schedule so far to the second-easiest rest of the season.
Fantasy managers have a right to worry, but regression, Nabers’ immense talent, and a very favorable schedule could still lead to top-15 WR production down the road.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Chubb put up 4.5 YPC last week, but saw a season-low 11 chances in a favorable matchup coming off Cleveland’s bye. A short turnaround with an upcoming Thursday night game was given as the reason, but Jerome Ford ran more routes and outscored Chubb 41 to 22. Chubb’s rush share of 61% was a season low and the score was 14-14 entering the match. fourth quarter, so the game script wasn’t a big problem. Chubb’s share fell to 19% after the first quarter.
Cleveland’s offensive line has been a problem, and the Browns have one of the highest success rates in the league over expectations since Jameis Winston took over. Chubb hasn’t looked the same (3.1 YPC) since returning from yet another major knee surgery, and he’s had just two receptions in four games. The Browns have the fourth-toughest RB schedule for the remainder of the season, so Chubb seems unlikely to make the impact managers were hoping for.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Swift’s snap share (54%), route share (38%) and opportunity share (59%) all fell during Chicago’s first game with new OC Thomas Brown last week. Swift recorded a 39-yard touchdown run, but Johnson took over the two-minute and goal-line roles. Johnson saw four red zone opportunities compared to one for Swift, including both goal-line attempts. Johnson recorded season highs in snap share (44%) and rush share (34%).
The move to offensive coordinator wasn’t all bad news for Swift; Chicago limited sacks, Swift saw more outside carries and the Bears had by far the league’s lowest neutral success rate (45%). However, Swift’s schedule goes from the second-easiest yet to the second-toughest for the rest of the season.
Swift has looked rejuvenated this season, but Caleb Williams’ issues have held back his production. Fantasy managers now have another concern about Johnson’s expanded role.
