It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed has averaged just 3.5 goals over the past two games, and his route participation (61%) fell below Romeo Doubs (93%) and Christian Watson (79%) last week. He has also gained zero yards rushing over the past three games. Reed remains WR14 in fantasy points per game this season, but he is WR53 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of now-healthy teammate Dontayvion Wicks (WR56). Reed ranks 42nd in targets (41) and 50th in target share (17.6%). He has seen just four targets inside the red zone this season.
Green Bay’s pass catchers are healthier than ever, but Jordan Love’s status for Week 9 is in question after he suffered a groin injury last game (the Packers may be more inclined to rest him with an upcoming Week 10 bye). Green Bay recorded a staggering -18% dropback rate versus expected through two games with Malik Willis starting earlier this year, and he attempted just five passes in two quarters last week.
Reed is a great player who has posted the second-best Passer Rating (141.0) when targeted this season, and he’ll have a drool-worthy matchup against a Lions defense this week, allowing by far the most fantasy points for the slot achieved. He will undoubtedly post more peak weeks this year.
But a lack of volume (and the possibility of Love missing another game) makes Reed more of a mid-low WR2 moving forward.
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JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins converted 24 chances into just 68 yards against a vulnerable Saints defense last week. Javonte Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season against New Orleans last week. Any defenseman can have a sub-par game, but there are concerns about Dobbins wearing down after Achilles tendon surgery. He posted a YPC of 9.9 and led the league in missed tackles per attempt through the first two weeks (against the Panthers and Raiders), but he posted a modest YPC of 3.1 while ranking 45th in MTF/att over five games.
Dobbins wouldn’t be the first RB to flash for a few games and return from Achilles surgery, only to fade away (James Robinson was the latest example). But that’s pure speculation, and Dobbins’ role has remained elite; he saw season highs in quick shares (81%) and targets (seven) last week. However, Kimani Vidal is now emerging as an alternative.
Additionally, Justin Herbert is third in pass attempts since LA’s farewell after previously being one of the toughest teams in the league. The volume has been nice, but there is some concern given Dobbins’ extreme drop in efficiency due to major surgery, a shift in LA’s offensive philosophy and a tougher upcoming schedule.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle was disappointed in Tua Tagovailoa’s return last week, finishing as the WR57 while making a bad drop downfield in a favorable matchup with Tyreek Hill running into foul trouble. While one game is meaningless, Waddle now has a modest 15% target share across Tagovailoa’s 100 pass attempts this season; Hill has a target share of 28%, and De’Von Achane’s is also higher at 19%.
That said, there is reason for optimism. Miami scored a career-high 27 points in Tagovailoa’s return last week, as the Dolphins’ neutral passing percentage went from worst to near first. Waddle had 122 targets and 1,380 receiving yards in his previous 17 games with Tagovailoa before last week, and there are also opportunities if Hill goes down.
Still, Miami’s offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive this season, even with Tagovailoa, and Achane’s emergence in the passing game will continue to hurt Waddle’s volume. Waddle will do just fine and remains a top-25 WR, but there is obvious concern among those who drafted him and expect more in 2024.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud appeared on the Panic Meter last week and things have only gotten worse. He finished as QB26 in a very favorable home game and lost Stefon Diggs for the season. Stroud has now finished as a top-five fantasy QB just twice during his career, with the last coming back in Week 12 of last season.
This isn’t necessarily Stroud’s fault, as Houston’s offensive line and injuries have contributed greatly to that. Stroud posted an 8.0 YPA and averaged 270.4 passing yards in games with Nico Collins during his career, but those numbers drop to 6.8 and 229.8 when Collins is off the field (h/t RotoViz). Diggs has now been out for a year with an ACL tear, and Tank Dell continues to look like another player returning from a broken leg; Dell had a season-low 11.1% target share last week despite Collins and Diggs being out. Dall ranks No. 86 in yards per route (1.10) this season.
Stroud will have a tough matchup on Thursday night against a Jets secondary that gives him the second-fewest passing yards per game (180.0), so he belongs on fantasy benches. The potential return of Collins in Week 10 will certainly help (and the schedule becomes more favorable), but Stroud is the QB22 this season, so his fantasy managers may already be in the corner.
