Week 15 brought some very special running back performances. While big names – like Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry – vastly underperformed, random backs offered top-12 performances… probably on your fantasy bench.
What should we make of big performances from Tyjae Spears, Jerome Ford and Justice Hill? Are they just one-week wonders or do they offer real starting value next week?
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Ford is the most clearly starting player from this group. Nick Chubb broke his foot and will be out for the rest of the season. Ford was the only other defenseman to touch the ball on Sunday, and that has been the trend in recent weeks. D’Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch and hasn’t played since Week 8. Pierre Strong hasn’t had more than two touches in a game since Week 7.
Ford is clearly the next man in line and should take the lead going forward.
Looking at the Browns’ performance this season, I can understand why you wouldn’t want anything to do with Ford. Chubb has been the leading back since returning in Week 7 and has had zero success on the ground aside from a two-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh. The Browns had been extremely happy with the fact that Jameis Winston typically threw over 40 attempts per game and had the third-worst rushing yards and second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league.
Pulse check: Is Ford usable or on its way to Chubb-like performance?
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Ford as the frontrunner this season. While it can serve as a point of reference, the Browns have been inconsistent in their usage, occasionally giving the bulk of the carries to Foreman despite Ford clearly outperforming him. The Browns are a bit odd in terms of picks, so they could put Ford on a committee. However, given the matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals and the lack of touches from other backs over the past two months, I’m confident he’ll have enough volume next week to be fantasy relevant. The Bengals have one of the most generous defenses across the board in the league (we’ll talk a bit more about that later). Ford should be ranked as a low-end RB2 in Week 16.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Spears’ Week 15 certainly needs some analysis to assess his performance and potential for the future. Spears had just four carries for five yards, but did get a rushing touchdown — an odd but impressive goal-line score. He got the touchdown early in the game after Tony Pollard had a touchdown on the goal line. It’s worth noting this so we understand the context: The touchdown came when Pollard was healthy and was the result of the Titans trading players for a change of pace.
There is also the added caveat that Pollard was injured during the match. He left the game with an ankle injury, but returned and played. Pollard had been dealing with an injury during the week, so it’s possible this is the same injury he suffered. Since he got back, you don’t see a questionable tag next to his name anymore.
Pollard was not present on the Titans’ last two drives. This did not appear to be due to injury, but the Titans chased points and turned aggressively towards the pass. Spears benefited from being used as a pass-catcher on those late drives and most of Spears’ fantasy production came through the air: six receptions on seven targets for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Pulse check: Does Spears have a shot at becoming the Titans’ RB1 next week?
The fact that Pollard returned to the game and that most of Spears’ production came from the Titans immediately giving up the run means that Spears might just be fool’s gold, which only benefits if the Pollard’s injury flares up during the week and he cannot get started. If Pollard is healthy in Week 16, in what should be a much more competitive matchup against Indianapolis, followed by another competitive matchup against Jacksonville, the Titans would likely return to normal practice, with Pollard seeing the bulk of the carries and the would be any useful fantasy. trump from the backfield.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Hill’s RB1 performance was fun and definitely random, but technically not a one-week wonder. It’s more of a “this is going to happen; the question is whether you will catch it.” Hill is no stranger to showing up with big receiving days. He had an RB1 appearance in Week 4 against Buffalo, RB2 appearances against Tampa Bay and the Chargers and often falls into RB3-RB4 territory.
Honestly, you can stare at the numbers all day, but there’s no real consistency to his stronger performances. They can get into a blowout or a close game. It’s a Hail Mary play that can hit, and if it doesn’t, it won’t hurt that much.
Pulse check: Should we have expectations for Hill?
Next week’s game is against Pittsburgh and we’ve seen this game before. It was a very low-scoring, close game in which Hill had decent receiving volume and finished as RB29 with 6.1 fantasy points in half PPR. Nevertheless, unless you are absolutely desperate or in extremely deep leagues, he should remain on fantasy benches.
But there is more…
I think we also need to re-examine some of the backs who have worked their way up the depth chart into reliable set-it-and-forget-it assets. It’s time for fantasy managers to accept these two late-season RB1s as true, uncontested locks.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
This is strange for me to write about, as I have been a Chase Brown truther since day one. Brown simply achieves his destiny that was set from the start. All he needed was the opportunity. Brown hasn’t finished outside the top twelve since Week 8, when Zach Moss was injured, and he should stay there for the rest of the season.
Pulse check: What makes Brown a permanent top-12 back?
Brown has everything in his favor, and I mean everything. He’s the only defenseman the Bengals trust. Since Week 9, a total of three touches have gone to a back not named Chase Brown. It may be the most dramatic difference in touch in the entire league. The combination of Cincinnati’s prolific offense and atrocious defense means Brown has ample scoring opportunities and consistently plays a strong volume game. His receiving upside means he can never be ruled out of games, and the Bengals aren’t afraid to send him onto the field.
He’s not just a check-down back. He is truly a fail-proof running back.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Dowdle doesn’t get the same level of praise I gave Brown, but he’s definitely reached the point where he’s a must-start on a weekly basis.
Week 15 was a strange match. It was the first game in which Dowdle was not the target. However, his volume on the ground remained strong. Since the Cowboys finally committed to Dowdle as the RB1, he has had at least 19 touches and at least 86 yards on the ground over the last four weeks. This week he had 25 carries for 149 yards – a career high.
Pulse check: How much does the Cowboys’ rest-of-season schedule affect Dowdle?
The Cowboys get the Buccaneers next week. It’s not necessarily an excellent matchup against the run, but it’s good enough to feel comfortable with Dowdle. If the Bucs dominate the Cowboys, it could also force more receiving work, which would help Dowdle’s fantasy production. In Week 17, Dowdle will likely drop back in the rankings a bit against a tough Philadelphia defense in a matchup he faced in Week 10. In that game, he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points on just 12 carries. However, it should be noted that this was before the Cowboys’ commitment to him as the RB1. He will likely see a strong workload and have an RB2 floor.
