What a week for late-round running backs! Five backs drafted with ADPs of 90 or higher finished in the top 10 of the first list, and these were some of my personal favorites to start the week:
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Tony Pollard (90.8 ADP)
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Chase brown (113.8)
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JK Dobbins (130)
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Rico Dowdle (128.3)
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Chuba Hubbard (129.9)
This production is not an anomaly. These backs have continued to rise as the season has progressed and have proven their worth as fantasy assets. However, the question remains: to what extent can we trust these ridges to move forward?
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Earlier this week I predicted a strong performance from Tony Pollard of 20 carries for over 100 yards, plus solid receiving work and a touchdown to give him a top-10 finish. While he didn’t quite reach that goal due to the lack of a touchdown, he still had an excellent day with 28 carries for 128 yards and three receptions for 26 yards. He will likely end up as a borderline RB1 depending on the outcome of the primetime games.
Heading into the season, I was concerned about Pollard after his disappointing 2023 season and thought Tyjae Spears could take over the backfield. Spears has battled injuries and Pollard has dominated during a strong statistical year despite the Titans’ offensive struggles. This week, Pollard came in at RB22 in points per game average in half PPR, which is respectable considering his limited touchdown options. His production is stable, while maintaining a decent floor.
Pulse check: Is Pollard’s production sustainable in the Titans ROS offense?
The Titans’ offense feels different with Mason Rudolph at the helm. It’s not perfect, but it offers more stability. In better matchups, Pollard has a low RB1 ceiling, and in tougher matchups he is a flexible option. The next few weeks are a little shaky, but the real key with Pollard is his playoff schedule. Week 13 through the fantasy championships in Week 17, Pollard faces Washington, Jacksonville (twice), Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
Pollard is a solid trade candidate at a reasonable price and you can reap the benefits in the fantasy playoffs. His job is safe, his workload is high and his floor is solid.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
With Zack Moss out, Brown was upgraded by committee to lead back and was the only running back to touch the ball for the Bengals in Week 9. Brown had 27 carries for 120 yards and caught all five of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. He took full advantage of the struggling Raiders defense and it was great to see him handle such a heavy workload – and a clear sign of the confidence the Bengals coaching staff has in him.
I discussed Brown in my make or break column and highlighted his potential to thrive this week given the matchup. When injuries occur within committees, we often see another move back to maintain the attacking structure, rather than a full lead-back takeover. We saw this today in the Commanders’ backfield, with Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols all carrying the load for Brian Robinson Jr. shared.
Brown, however, was a clear three-down back.
Brown was one of my favorite draft picks this season because even though Moss was expected to start the season as the leading defender, I had complete confidence that Brown was simply the better defender and would eventually take over. As the season progressed, Brown steadily reduced Moss’ workload, but it was clear that the Bengals had no intention of eliminating Moss from the committee. Both backs had decent floors, but their upside was limited due to volume limitations.
Pulse check: What happens when Zack Moss is back?
There are a few things working against Chase Brown. Advanced metrics have been in Brown’s favor for most of the season and despite his clear upper hand, the Bengals have not aggressively shifted the workload in his favor. It’s hard to believe they’ll phase out Moss completely. While I think Brown may have earned some favoritism, Moss’ presence will be enough to cover Brown’s true ceiling. This means Brown will rock RB1 in prime matchups, but perform more like a low-end RB2 in tougher matchups.
The Bengals’ upcoming schedule features tough defenses, with Baltimore in Week 10, followed by the LA Chargers and then a bye week. I believe in Brown’s talent, but I’m not sure the Bengals believe in him enough to give him the clear lead. Talent usually wins, but the Bengals organization is sensitive to that doubtful practices.
If Moss’ injury continues to be an issue, it’s Brown to the moon. If Moss returns soon, we’ll be back to more of the same.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
For a lesser-known running back in one of the league’s worst offenses, there has been a surprising debate among fantasy managers about Chuba Hubbard. Heading into the season, we expected Hubbard to be a temporary replacement before Jonathon Brooks returned from the PUP roster.
Instead, we enter Week 10 and Brooks has yet to see action.
Hubbard was excellent as the Panthers’ lead back. Barring a poor performance in Week 1, Hubbard hasn’t finished lower than RB33 and has had three (and possibly four, depending on Week 9 primetime games) top 10 finishes. He typically has double-digit floor coverage and a strong ceiling. was one of the most reliable backs in the league.
Brooks will likely be active in Week 10, but it’s hard to imagine the non-contested Panthers pushing Brooks into a heavy workload right away. Hubbard has been effective and there is no reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks back, especially with a bye in Week 11. I expect Brooks to be used minimally in Week 10 with Hubbard remaining in the lead for another week.
Pulse check: What happens after the bye week?
After the bye, Brooks could see an increased workload, but Hubbard should maintain his flex value, especially during the playoffs with games against Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Panthers’ offense doesn’t have enough power to support two productive backs, so something has to give here, but that “give” could easily fall on Brooks.
The Panthers have no incentive to give Brooks a heavy workload and the hope is that they will continue to use Brooks minimally while Hubbard remains in charge. His ceiling would be lowered, but he would remain eligible to start.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
We’ve talked about backs in underwhelming offenses like Tennessee and Carolina, but Dallas is on a different level. They performed wildly below expectations and are in an absolute tailspin that could get even worse with Dak Prescott dealing with a hamstring injury and CeeDee Lamb dealing with a shoulder injury.
Despite Dallas’ struggles in Week 9, Rico Dowdle had a strong fantasy performance. His volume was low, but he was incredibly productive and took advantage in the matchup with Atlanta: 75 yards on 12 carries, plus five receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Pulse check: Was Week 9’s performance a blip or should we expect RB1 production ROS?
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Dowdle with a full workload; about a month. In Week 5, Dowdle had a breakout performance with 20 carries for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown, but he was injured the following week. Dallas had a bye in week 7 and in week 8 Dowdle was late due to illness. With Ezekiel Elliott inactive for disciplinary reasons in Week 9, Dowdle had no competition and thrived despite the offense’s problems.
He has been by far the best in Dallas, and his job is very safe. After a tough game against Philadelphia next week, the competition will lighten up, especially in Week 16 when Dowdle will face Cincinnati, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Dowdle should retain the leadership role and has RB1 upside, even with the team injuries looming.
JK Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
I saved Dobbins for last because he really is the Cinderella story of the year.
Everyone’s favorite comeback player right now is Kirk Cousins, but don’t count out Dobbins! He dominated the Chargers backfield from the start and hasn’t given up. Week 9 saw one of his best performances of the season with 14 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns, plus two receptions for 20 yards. Heading into Week 9, Dobbins was RB17 in average points per game in half PPR, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game.
Pulse check: Will the clock strike midnight in our Cinderella story?
At this point, the only thing working against Dobbins is his own injury history. He hasn’t played more than eight games since his rookie season in 2020, so it feels like we’re at a critical moment, holding our breath with every hit. There is no threat to his workload and the Chargers’ offense continues to improve as their young receivers develop. That improvement will increase touchdown opportunities, leading to more games like his production in Week 9.
The road ahead for Dobbins is a bit tricky. While there are favorable matchups against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, there are also tough defenses in Baltimore, Kansas City and Denver. Despite the potential defensive pitfalls, Dobbins remains a strong three-down back with a true RB1 edge – health permitting, of course.
